Gold prices jumped 6% in the past week, primarily due to the Israel-Hamas war. Economists at ANZ Bank analyze the yellow metal’s outlook.
The Israel-Hamas war will heighten haven demand
While the Israel-Hamas war will drive haven flows towards Gold, our positive view for the price hinges on the Fed rate cycle nearing an end. This will result in a retreating US yield, reducing the opportunity cost of Gold.
Haven-induced upside in the USD would not have a negative impact on the Gold price. We hold our long-term bearish stance for the USD, which will support Gold going into 2024.
Central bank purchases are likely to be strong, and demand for physical Gold gets a seasonal boost in Q4.
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