Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD sticks to modest recovery gains, lacks follow-through

Gold edges higher on Tuesday and snaps a six-day losing streak to a multi-week low.
Softer US bond yields prompt some USD profit-taking and offer support to the metal.
Hawkish Fed expectations should continue to underpin the greenback and cap gains.

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

Gold gains some positive traction on Tuesday and moves away from a four-week low touched the previous day. The XAU/USD, for now, seems to have snapped a six-day losing streak and sticks to its modest recovery gains, around the $1,740 area through the first half of the European session, though lacks follow-through.

A slight US dollar pullback from a two-decade high turns out to be a key factor offering some support to the dollar-denominated gold. Following the recent strong run-up, the USD bulls to take some profits off the table amid a softer tone surrounding the US Treasury bond yields. In fact, the yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond dips back below the 3.0% threshold, which further benefits the non-yielding yellow metal.

That said, a goodish recovery in the equity markets, along with hawkish Fed expectations, should hold back traders from placing aggressive bullish bets around gold. Despite signs of easing US inflation, investors seem convinced that the Fed will stick to its policy tightening path. The bets were reaffirmed by the recent hawkish comments by several Fed officials, which should act as a tailwind for the US bond yields and the greenback.

Investors also anticipate a more hawkish message from Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium later this week. Apart from this, this week's important US macro releases will play a key role in influencing the near-term USD price dynamics and provide a fresh directional impetus to gold. This further warrants some caution before confirming that the XAU/USD has formed a bottom and positioning for any further appreciating move.

In the meantime, traders on Tuesday will take cues from the flash US PMI prints, due for release later during the early North American session. This, along with the US bond yields, will drive the USD demand. Apart from this, the broader risk sentiment would allow traders to grab short-term opportunities around gold.

Technical levels to watch

XAU/USD

Overview
Today last price	1739
Today Daily Change	2.60
Today Daily Change %	0.15
Today daily open	1736.4

Trends
Daily SMA20	1768.3
Daily SMA50	1772.63
Daily SMA100	1827.34
Daily SMA200	1839.62

Levels
Previous Daily High	1749.2
Previous Daily Low	1727.87
Previous Weekly High	1802.51
Previous Weekly Low	1745.63
Previous Monthly High	1814.37
Previous Monthly Low	1680.91
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	1736.02
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	1741.05
Daily Pivot Point S1	1726.45
Daily Pivot Point S2	1716.49
Daily Pivot Point S3	1705.12
Daily Pivot Point R1	1747.78
Daily Pivot Point R2	1759.15
Daily Pivot Point R3	1769.11

Author

Haresh Menghani

FXStreet

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

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