Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD soars on geopolitical tensions, dovish Fed rate cut speculation

Gold price rallied sharply on Friday, spurred by a risk-off impulse due to tensions arising around the Red Sea, as the US and the UK retaliated against Houthi's attack on a US ship on Thursday. Therefore, XAU/USD’s refreshed five-day highs at around $2062, and trades at $2045, up 0.70%.

XAU/USD hits five-day high at $2062, sponsored by mixed US data, increased odds for Fed rate cuts

Traders bought Gold due to the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. Besides that, the yellow metal was boosted by the drop in US Treasury bond yields, as bets that the US Federal Reserve would cut rates aggressively beginning as soon as March increased.

In the meantime, the latest inflation report in the United States (US), revealed that prices paid by producers, also known as the PPI, slid below estimates, with the PPI monthly dropping -0.1%, below forecasts of 0.1%. In a year-over-year number, the PPI rose by 1%, below forecasts of 1.9%. Core PPI was unchanged at 0% compared with November’s data but below estimates, while year-over-year figures dipped below projections and the previous reading, from 2% to 1.8%.

Although today’s data is supportive of a dovish approach by the Fed, on Thursday consumer inflation data was higher than expected. It should be said that some Fed officials made comments on December’s data, and pushed back against expectations for a rate cut in March.

The yellow metal was also supported by the drop in US yields, particularly the short-end of the curve, with the 2-year Treasury note plunging almost ten basis points to 4.16%, reducing the US 2s-10s yield curve inversion. That weighed on the Greenback, which according to the US Dollar Index (DXY) clings to decent gains of 0.15%, up at 102.47.

XAU/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook

Gold’s daily chart remains upward-biased after bouncing off the weekly lows of $2013, which exacerbated XAU’s rally toward the $2060 area, before sliding toward the 20-day moving average (DMA) at $2046. If buyers crack that level and the $2050 figure, that could open the door to retesting weekly highs. Further upside is seen at $2100. On the flip side, XAU/USD’s buyers' failure to reclaim $2050 could open the door for further losses. First support is seen at today’s low of $2028, followed by the week’s low of $2013.