Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD slips below $1,940 amid US default jitters, US Durables in focus

Gold price has dropped after struggling above $1,940.00 as the US Dollar Index is possessing immense strength.
Fed Collins cited that the Fed "may be at or near" the time to pause interest rate increases.
Gold price has turned imbalance after a breakdown of the consolidation formed in a range of $1,952-1,985.

Sagar Dua FXStreet

Gold price (XAU/USD) has extended its downside further below the immediate support of $1,940.00 in the Asian session. Earlier, the precious metal displayed a vertical downfall after slipping below the $1,952.00 cushion as the United States economy is approaching a default situation amid divergence in views over the budget among the White House and Republican delegates.

S&P500 futures have posted decent losses in the Asian session after a positive Thursday. Market sentiment is turning negative as investors are worried that the US treasury could announce a default in less than one week if negotiations between US President Joe Biden and House of Representatives Kevin McCarthy keep going like this.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has rebounded firmly to near 104.28 after a mild correction. The USD Index is having immense strength despite expectations of a pause in the policy-tightening spell by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in June. Boston Fed Bank President Susan Collins said on Thursday that the Fed "may be at or near" the time to pause interest rate increases, as reported by Reuters. She further added, "While inflation is still too high, there are some promising signs of moderation,"

On Friday, US Durable Goods Orders data will be keenly watched. According to the consensus, Aril Durable Goods Orders data is seen contracting by 1.0% against an expansion of 3.2%. A decline in durable goods orders would weigh heavily on the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) which has shown severe persistence.

Gold technical analysis

Gold price has turned imbalance after a breakdown of the consolidation formed in a range of $1,952-1,985 on the daily scale. The precious metal has shifted into bearish territory and is expected to find support near May 13 high at $1,914.67.

The 10-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1,968.43 is acting as a barricade for the Gold bulls.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has slipped below 40.00, showing no signs of divergence and an absence of evidence of oversold situation supports weakness ahead.

Gold daily chart

XAU/USD

Overview
Today last price	1939
Today Daily Change	-2.37
Today Daily Change %	-0.12
Today daily open	1941.37

Trends
Daily SMA20	1998.76
Daily SMA50	1992.47
Daily SMA100	1933.96
Daily SMA200	1829.49

Levels
Previous Daily High	1964.82
Previous Daily Low	1938.91
Previous Weekly High	2022.18
Previous Weekly Low	1952.01
Previous Monthly High	2048.75
Previous Monthly Low	1949.83
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	1948.81
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	1954.92
Daily Pivot Point S1	1931.91
Daily Pivot Point S2	1922.46
Daily Pivot Point S3	1906
Daily Pivot Point R1	1957.82
Daily Pivot Point R2	1974.28
Daily Pivot Point R3	1983.73

Author

Sagar Dua

FXStreet

Sagar Dua is associated with the financial markets from his college days. Along with pursuing post-graduation in Commerce in 2014, he started his markets training with chart analysis.

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