EUR/USD Price Forecast: Struggles to extend advance above 1.1800
- EUR/USD ticks down to a fresh weekly low near 1.1740 as the US Dollar trades broadly stable.
- Fed officials favored returning to the neutral policy stance to support the job market.
- The ECB is expected to hold interest rates steady in the near term as inflation has remained close to the 2% target.
The EUR/USD pair posts a fresh weekly low near 1.1740 during the Asian trading session on Wednesday. The major currency pair is under pressure as the US Dollar (USD) edges higher despite Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the December policy meeting, released on Tuesday, showing that most policymakers stressed the need for further interest rate cuts.
During the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, refreshes weekly high near 98.25.
“Most participants judged further rate cuts would likely be appropriate if inflation declined over time as expected,” FOMC minutes. Officials also expressed the need to return to the neutral policy state to forestall possible job market deterioration.
Currently, the CME FedWatch tool shows that the Fed will cut interest rates by at least 50 basis points (bps) in 2026.
Meanwhile, the Euro (EUR) trades subduedly in a thin trading volume session while heading to the end of the year. The European Central Bank (ECB) is unlikely to make any monetary policy adjustments at the start of 2026, given that the Eurozone inflation has remained close to the 2% target.
EUR/USD technical analysis
In the daily chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1744. The pair holds above a rising 20-day EMA at 1.1724, keeping the near-term bias positive. The average has been edging higher for several sessions, suggesting dips find demand. RSI at 58 (bullish) stays above the midline after easing from overbought, indicating momentum remains supportive.
Momentum has cooled from recent peaks but stays constructive for further upside as long as the price maintains traction above the 20-day EMA at 1.1724. A daily close below that gauge would temper the advance and shift the tone toward consolidation.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Economic Indicator
FOMC Minutes
FOMC stands for The Federal Open Market Committee that organizes 8 meetings in a year and reviews economic and financial conditions, determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. FOMC Minutes are released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve and are a clear guide to the future US interest rate policy.
Next release: Wed Feb 18, 2026 19:00
Frequency: Irregular
Consensus: -
Previous: -
Source: Federal Reserve
Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is usually published three weeks after the day of the policy decision. Investors look for clues regarding the policy outlook in this publication alongside the vote split. A bullish tone is likely to provide a boost to the greenback while a dovish stance is seen as USD-negative. It needs to be noted that the market reaction to FOMC Minutes could be delayed as news outlets don’t have access to the publication before the release, unlike the FOMC’s Policy Statement.
Author
Sagar Dua
FXStreet
Sagar Dua is associated with the financial markets from his college days. Along with pursuing post-graduation in Commerce in 2014, he started his markets training with chart analysis.
