Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD trades in $1,960s as probabilities of Fed pivot decline

Gold price retreats back into a familiar range in the $1,950-60s in the early European Session on Wednesday. Volatility has drained from markets as banking crisis fears dissipate and bets revive of a rate hike in May. Traders now await big data releases starting with US Q4 GDP and US Jobless Claims on Thursday, and probably most important of all, the US Federal Reserve’s favored inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index (PCE), on Friday. 

Federal Reserve less likely to cut rates this year

XAU/USD has pulled back from yesterday’s highs in the mid $1,970s as expectations of the Fed cutting rates later this year have started to fall. The Fed Fund Futures Curve is now only pricing in two instead of three 0.25% rate cuts by the end of 2023. That said, the same indicator is still showing a 57% probability the Fed will not hike rates at the next meeting in May, versus a 43% chance it will raise them by 0.25%. 

Traders now await the release of the PCE price index for February for greater clarity on the state of inflation and the Fed’s probable next move. Economists’ forecasts are for the Core PCE to decline to 0.4% from 0.6% previously, MoM, and to remain unchanged at 4.7% YoY. 

A higher-than-expected Core PCE will suggest inflation remains a problem and prompt the Fed to raise rates more aggressively, and vice-versa for a lower-than-expected result. 

Given rates tend to move in the opposite direction to Gold, because as they rise they make remaining in cash more attractive, a higher PCE result will have a negative impact on Gold price. 

Another key macroeconomic release for Gold on Friday could be Chinese Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) releases, since China is the biggest Gold market in the world. NBS Manufacturing PMI in March is expected to show a decline to 51.5 from 52.6 previously. A higher-than-expected result would help support Gold price, and vice-versa for a lower result. 

Bank stresses to return before the end of 2023

ING Bank expects XAU/USD to pull back in the short term, in the wake of a final 0.25% rate rise from the Federal Reserve in May, before recovering in the medium term as banking stresses revive and the central bank starts cutting rates before the end of the year. 

“Whilst we expect a pullback in prices in the short term, we see Gold prices moving higher over 2H23 and expect spot Gold to average $2,000 over 4Q23. The assumptions around this are that we do not see further deterioration in the banking sector and that the Fed starts cutting rates towards the end of this year,” says ING in its note. 

Another view comes from Eric Strand, manager of the AuAg ESG Gold Mining UCITS ETC (ESGO), who sees XAU/USD upside potential from a weaker US Dollar due to an expected divergence between US and European central bank policy. The US Federal Reserve is near the end of its tightening cycle, whilst the European Central Bank (ECB) is only just starting its cycle, claims Strand. 

Gold price is also likely to benefit from a seasonal effect in April,  according to Giles Coghlan, of HYCM Capital Markets. 

"Note that gold has a distinct pattern around the start of the month. In April gold tends to gain as the new month gets underway," Says Coghlan in a note. 

The increased demand could be due to Gold-buying in the run up to the Indian Akshaya Tritiya festival on May 7. 

Gold price bulls still own the trend

XAU/USD may be meandering in the short term but it is still in an uptrend when looked at from a medium-term perspective. The price of the precious metal continues to make higher highs and lows on the daily chart. Thus, according to the old adage, “The trend is your friend until the bend at the end,” the technical outlook favors bulls.

Gold price: Daily Chart

A break above the key $2,009 March top would be required to confirm further upside. The next target for Gold price would then lie at the $2,070 March 2022 highs. 

The key $1,934 March 22 swing low must hold for Gold bulls to retain the advantage. Yet, a break and close on a daily basis below that level would introduce doubt into the overall bullish assessment of the trend. Such a move would probably see a sharp decline to support at $1,990 supplied by the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). 

Scoping into the 4-hour timeframe chart and it is possible to make out what may be a symmetrical triangle price pattern forming on XAU/USD. 

Symmetrical triangles can breakout in either direction once they have completed, but the probabilities generally favor a breakout in line with the dominant trend, which in this case is higher. 

The target for such a breakout would be expected to be the height of the triangle extrapolated higher, which in this case lies just below the $2,070 March 2022 highs. Alternatively a break below the $1,944 March 27 lows – or better still the $1,934 lows – could mark a breakout lower, with a downside target at around the $1,880 level.  

Triangles are normally composed of five waves, labelled A-E, and the triangle currently forming is porbably in wave D, which is likely to complete at the level of the upper boundary line of the triangle, at about $1,995, before E going back down begins.