EUR/USD on its back foot ahead of US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

EUR/USD drifts closer to 1.1700 on track to a mild weekly decline.
The ECB kept its monetary policy unchanged and left all options open.
In the US, November's CPI showed an unexpected decline in inflation.

Guillermo Alcala FXStreet

EUR/USD languishes near 1.1710 on Friday's US session opening times, down from the three-month highs, above 1.1800, hit earlier this week. The pair is on track to close the week with moderate losses, as the US Dollar picks up against its main peers.

The Euro (EUR) extended losses on Thursday after the European Central Bank (ECB) left interest rates unchanged, as widely expected, and ECB President Christine Lagarde refused to commit to any particular rate path. Lagarde affirmed that the decision was taken unanimously and there was no discussion to change interest rates, suggesting that market speculation about a rate hike is unfounded.

In the US, November's Consumer Price Index (CPI) revealed an unexpected decline in inflation, with the year-on-year rate easing to 2.7% from 3.0% in September, as October's reading was cancelled due to the US Government shutdown. The market has taken these figures with caution, and rightly so, as the Commerce Department affirmed that it only collected data from the second half of the month, with the Black Friday sales already in progress.

On Friday's US session, the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and the European Commission's Consumer Confidence preliminary survey for December will be the main focus.

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.08%	0.03%	0.45%	0.06%	0.08%	0.30%	0.13%
EUR	-0.08%		-0.05%	0.38%	-0.01%	0.00%	0.22%	0.05%
GBP	-0.03%	0.05%		0.44%	0.04%	0.05%	0.27%	0.10%
JPY	-0.45%	-0.38%	-0.44%		-0.39%	-0.39%	-0.18%	-0.34%
CAD	-0.06%	0.01%	-0.04%	0.39%		0.01%	0.21%	0.06%
AUD	-0.08%	-0.01%	-0.05%	0.39%	-0.01%		0.21%	0.04%
NZD	-0.30%	-0.22%	-0.27%	0.18%	-0.21%	-0.21%		-0.17%
CHF	-0.13%	-0.05%	-0.10%	0.34%	-0.06%	-0.04%	0.17%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

Daily Digest Market Movers: Euro eases as the ECB maintains its "wait-and-see" stance

The Euro is pulling back from recent highs, as investors come to terms with the fact that it is still too early to bet on an ECB rate hike. Downside attempts, however, are likely to remain limited, as the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is seen cutting rates at least two times in 2026.
The ECB left its Rate on the Deposit Facility unchanged at 2%, as expected, and revised up its economic growth outlook to 1.4% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026. President Lagarde, however, said that all options are open and that there is no date for any monetary policy move.
ECB Board member and Latvian Central Bank Governor Martins Khazakhs reiterated that view on Friday, warning that it is counter-productive to talk about the direction of rates, as the nbank needs "full optionality, with risks on both sides."
In the US, CPI figures showed that inflation eased to a 2.7% yearly rate in November, from 3.0% in September, against expectations of a slight increase to 3.1%. Likewise, core inflation moderated to a 2.6% yearly rate from 3% in September.
The German GfK Confidence Survey, released on Friday, has shown further deterioration, with January's reading dropping to -26.9 from -23.4 in the previous month, and undershooting market expectations of a -23.2 reading.
German Producer Prices Index, also released on Friday, revealed that factory inflation stalled in November, down from a 0.1% rise in October, and contracted at a 2.3% pace in the last 12 months, below the 1.8% decline seen in October and also below the 2.2% contraction forecast by the market consensus.
Later in the day, the preliminary Eurozone Consumer Confidence is expected to show a slight improvement to -14.0 in December from -14.2 in November.
At the same time, December's US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is expected to be revised up to 53.4 from the 53.3 preliminary reading.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD is expected to find support at 1.1700

The EUR/USD remains under moderate bearish pressure, with bears focusing on the 1.1700 support area. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) trends lower below the 50 mid-line, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains below zero, printing red bars, which points to a growing negative momentum.

The December 17 low, at 1.1703, and the trendline support, now around 1.1695, are likely to challenge bears ahead of the 1.1685 level (December 11 low, December 4 high). A confirmation below this level would cancel the bullish view and bring the December 9 low, at 1.1615, into focus.

To the upside, immediate resistance is at Thursday's high, near 1.1760, ahead of Tuesday's high, at 1.1804, and the September 23 and 24 highs, near 1.1820.

Economic Indicator

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, released on a monthly basis by the University of Michigan, is a survey gauging sentiment among consumers in the United States. The questions cover three broad areas: personal finances, business conditions and buying conditions. The data shows a picture of whether or not consumers are willing to spend money, a key factor as consumer spending is a major driver of the US economy. The University of Michigan survey has proven to be an accurate indicator of the future course of the US economy. The survey publishes a preliminary, mid-month reading and a final print at the end of the month. Generally, a high reading is bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is bearish.

Why it matters to traders?

Consumer exuberance can translate into greater spending and faster economic growth, implying a stronger labor market and a potential pick-up in inflation, helping turn the Fed hawkish. This survey’s popularity among analysts (mentioned more frequently than CB Consumer Confidence) is justified because the data here includes interviews conducted up to a day or two before the official release, making it a timely measure of consumer mood, but foremost because it gauges consumer attitudes on financial and income situations. Actual figures beating consensus tend to be USD bullish.

Economic Indicator

Consumer Confidence

The Consumer Confidence released by the European Commission is a leading index that measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. A high level of consumer confidence stimulates economic expansion while a low level drives to economic downturn. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

AUD/USD consolidates above 0.7000; remains close to monthly top

AUD/USD holds steady above 0.7000 during the Asian session on Friday, trading just below the previous day's monthly low amid diverging forces. A hawkish RBA continues to support the Aussie, while the recent decline in US bond yields keeps the US Dollar depressed near a three-week low. However, oil-driven inflation fears reinforce Fed hike bets, which, along with geopolitical risks, could benefit the safe-haven buck and cap the currency pair.

USD/JPY drops to an over one-month low, around 156.00 after Japan's CPI report

USD/JPY attracts heavy follow-through selling on Friday, dropping to the 156.00 neighborhood, a one-month low, as Japan's National CPI report reaffirms bets for an imminent BoJ rate hike and boosts the Japanese Yen. Moreover, the recent steep fall in US bond yields counters hawkish Fed expectations and geopolitical risks, undermining the US Dollar and exerting additional pressure on the currency pair.

Gold seems vulnerable near August lows; eyes $4,000 break amid Fed hike bets

Gold touches a fresh low since early August during the Asian session on Friday, eyeing the key $4,000 psychological mark. Oil-driven inflation fears reinforce December Fed hike bets and continue to undermine the non-yielding bullion, which fails to benefit from the recent steep fall in US bond yields and the prevailing US Dollar selling bias. Moreover, the overnight breakdown below a trading-range support backs the case for further depreciation.

Bitcoin falls 4% as chip stocks plunge 6.7% and oil surges

Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $82,000 on Thursday as the crypto market joined a broader market sell-off driven by concerns over artificial intelligence (AI) spending, rising oil prices and escalating geopolitical tensions involving the US and Iran. The top crypto fell 4% to $81,130 as macro fears weighed on prices across the digital asset market.

The Bank of England just got its clearest reason to hike. Here's what it's really watching

UK inflation as measured by the CPI accelerated to 3.5% YoY in September, up from 3.1% in August, according to the Office for National Statistics. This is the highest level since October 2025, exceeding economists' expectations of 3.4% and pushing inflation further from the BoE's 2% target.

What November 3 means for the Fed's rate path and the US Dollar

The USD faces a decisive period ahead of the November 3 midterm elections. While markets anticipate another interest rate increase from the Fed in December, the battle for control of Congress could reshape fiscal policy expectations and, indirectly, the path of US monetary policy in 2027.