Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD to average $2,000 over Q4 as Fed pivots – ING

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

Concerns over the banking sector have led to a move towards safe haven assets and Fold has clearly benefited from this. While economists at ING see a short-term pullback in prices, we expect these to strengthen over the second half of the year.

Fed policy should support Gold later in the year

“Fed policy is likely to be key for Gold over the medium term. We see a final 25 bps hike in May, which would leave the Fed funds range at 5-5.25%. Rate cuts will likely then become the theme for 2H23, and we see the Fed cutting by 75 bps in the fourth quarter. We would expect real yields to follow policy rates lower later in the year, which should prove supportive for Gold prices.”

“Whilst we expect a pullback in prices in the short term, we see Gold prices moving higher over 2H23 and expect spot Gold to average $2,000 over 4Q23. The assumptions around this are that we do not see further deterioration in the banking sector and that the Fed starts cutting rates towards the end of this year.”

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

AUD/USD keeps the red near 0.6950 after weak Aussie jobs data

AUD/USD holds losses near 0.6950 on disappointing Australian jobs data, extending the previous day's retracement slide from the monthly high and hitting a fresh weekly low during Thursday’s Asian session. Meanwhile, declining US bond yields drag the US Dollar away from the April 2025 high, touched after Wednesday's hot US CPI, helping limit losses for the currency pair.

USD/JPY slides back below 158.00 as USD reverses post-CPI gains

USD/JPY extends the previous day's pullback from a three-week high, attracting follow-through selling and sliding below 158.00 during Thursday's Asian session. Traders remain on high alert amid speculation that authorities will step in to prop up the Japanese Yen. The US Dollar, meanwhile, reverses Wednesday's hot CPI-led gains to April 2025 highs as US bond yields retreat on China bond-buying talk, further pressuring the pair.

Gold sticks to gains below $4,150 on weak USD; bulls seem hesitant amid Fed hike bets

Gold clings to modest intraday gains through the early European session amid a broadly weaker US Dollar, snapping a three-day losing streak to a one-week low set on Wednesday. The initial aggressive market reaction to hot US consumer inflation figures faded quickly amid expectations that the Fed may not rush to raise interest rates immediately. This led to a further decline in US bond yields, prompting some follow-through USD profit-taking and supporting the non-yielding bullion.

Bitcoin, XRP analyst sentiment jumps as Solana bulls hit 91%: CryptoQuant

Analyst sentiment on Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, BNB and XRP has flipped bullish since July, as the top five cryptocurrencies recovered faster and more strongly than during the 2022-2023 market phase, according to CryptoQuant.

Budget preview: Is Healey impressing the bond market?

There is less than 2 weeks to go before the Chancellor delivers his first budget. Unusually for the UK, the economic and financial backdrop to this budget is upbeat. UK bonds have been rallying, the FTSE 100 is the top performing major stock index this week, and the Pound is also stabilising versus the Dollar.

Has Bitcoin really escaped the macro forces it was built to fight?

Over 17 years ago, Satoshi Nakamoto designed Bitcoin (BTC) on the back of a global financial crisis as an alternative to the global monetary system outside the control of central banks, governments and traditional intermediaries. This raises a key question: has Bitcoin really become independent of the macroeconomic forces it was built to challenge?