Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD to average $2,000 over Q4 as Fed pivots – ING

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

Concerns over the banking sector have led to a move towards safe haven assets and Fold has clearly benefited from this. While economists at ING see a short-term pullback in prices, we expect these to strengthen over the second half of the year.

Fed policy should support Gold later in the year

“Fed policy is likely to be key for Gold over the medium term. We see a final 25 bps hike in May, which would leave the Fed funds range at 5-5.25%. Rate cuts will likely then become the theme for 2H23, and we see the Fed cutting by 75 bps in the fourth quarter. We would expect real yields to follow policy rates lower later in the year, which should prove supportive for Gold prices.”

“Whilst we expect a pullback in prices in the short term, we see Gold prices moving higher over 2H23 and expect spot Gold to average $2,000 over 4Q23. The assumptions around this are that we do not see further deterioration in the banking sector and that the Fed starts cutting rates towards the end of this year.”

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

GBP/USD appears well offered near 1.3160

GBP/USD builds on Tuesday’s losses, although it now manages to pick up some pace and bounce off earlier multi-month troughs near 1.3140. The Greenback’s solid performance and continued political turmoil in the UK are keeping Cable under persistent pressure, with little sign of a meaningful recovery.

EUR/USD softens to near 1.1350 as Fed hike bets rise ahead of PCE inflation data

The EUR/USD pair declines to around 1.1355 during the early Asian trading hours on Thursday. The Euro weakens to its lowest level since June 2025 against the US Dollar as traders increase their bets on US interest rate hikes later this year. The US May Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation data will be the highlight on Thursday.

Gold off YTD lows, still struggles around $4,000 on hawkish Fed bets

Gold is off year-to-date lows, still struggling around $4,000 in the Asian session on Thursday as bears pause following the overnight slump to the lowest level since November 2025. Despite easing inflationary concerns amid falling oil prices, elevated Fed rate-hike bets help the US Dollar preserve its recent strong gains to the highest level since May 2025, weighing on non-yielding bullion.

Crypto market sheds over 50% of its value amid Bitcoin's brief decline below $60K

The crypto market has erased more than half of its value since reaching an all-time high in late 2025. The decline underscores the severity of the recent bear market and lack of a fresh catalyst to revive investor interest, according to a Wednesday X post by The Kobeissi Letter. The total crypto market cap peaked at a record $4.3 trillion on October 6, 2025.

5.90% to 5.45%: Why the Pound ignored the bond market’s relief rally

Keir Starmer resigned on Monday, and the Pound barely moved. That near-silence is the tell. Sterling's real driver these past four months has not been the prime minister, nor the left-leaning frontrunner lining up to replace him, but the long end of the gilt curve, which answers to a force no British politician controls.

Regime change: Inside Kevin Warsh's first move to make the Fed unreadable on purpose

The rate did not move. That was the least interesting thing about Kevin Warsh's first meeting in charge of the Fed. The FOMC held its benchmark at 3.50%-3.75% for the fourth straight meeting, exactly as priced, and then the new chair used his first press conference to dismantle the machinery the market has leaned on for a decade.