Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD posts modest gains above $2,600, focus on Trump policies

Gold price holds positive ground to near $2,625 in Thursday’s early Asian session.
Geopolitical risks, central bank buying, and safe-haven flows might boost the Gold price.
The expectation of a slower pace of the Fed rate cut might cap the upside for the yellow metal.

Lallalit Srijandorn FXStreet

Gold price (XAU/USD) trades with mild gains to around $2,625 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The uncertainties around Donald Trump's tariff policies, geopolitical risks, and central bank buying support the yellow metal. Nonetheless, the cautious stance of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) might cap the Gold's upside.

Traders awaited fresh catalysts that could influence the Fed's interest rate outlook this year. In December, Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled a cautious stance on further rate cuts after delivering a 25 basis points (bps) reduction. This, in turn, could provide some support to the Greenback and undermine the USD-denominated commodity price.

The release of the US weekly Initial Jobless Claims on Thursday might offer some hints about the US labor market condition. On Friday, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI for December will be in the spotlight.

On the other hand, the uncertainties surrounding policies from incoming President Donald Trump could lift the precious metal. Additionally, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict are expected to remain high this year, which could boost the safe-haven flows, benefiting the Gold price.

An increase in global central banks gold demand might contribute to the precious metal metal’s upside. According to the World Gold Council survey, major central banks are likely to purchase more Gold in the next 12 months. This should further bolster demand for the yellow metal.

(This story was corrected on January 2 at 09:52 GMT to say that the US ISM Manufacturing PMI will be in the spotlight on Friday, not the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI.)

Gold FAQs

Why do people invest in Gold?

Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Who buys the most Gold?

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

How is Gold correlated with other assets?

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

What does the price of Gold depend on?

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

Author

Lallalit Srijandorn

FXStreet

Lallalit Srijandorn is a Parisian at heart. She has lived in France since 2019 and now becomes a digital entrepreneur based in Paris and Bangkok.

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