Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD extends downside to near $3,250 on better risk appetite
- Gold price edges lower to near $3,265 in Monday’s early Asian session.
- US-China trade agreement diminished investors’ appetite for Gold.
- Safe-haven flows and optimism of a Fed rate cut might cap the Gold’s downside.
The Gold price (XAU/USD) extends the decline to around $3,265 during the early Asian session on Monday. The precious metal tumbles to near one-month low after a United States (US)-China trade agreement boosted risk appetite. Investors await the Fedspeak later on Monday for fresh impetus.
A trade deal reached between the US and China last week on how to expedite rare earth shipments to the US was viewed positively by markets. This, in turn, diminished bullion's appeal as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, the ceasefire deal between Iran and Israel last week contributes to the yellow metal’s downside.
“The slowdown in geopolitics has offered an opportunity for investors to start taking profit because of the forward-looking prospects of some kind of kinetic war with China and the developments in the Middle East,” said Daniel Pavilonis, senior market strategist at RJO Futures.
On the other hand, any renewed geopolitical tensions or trade uncertainty triggered by US President Donald Trump could prompt central bank buying and increasing demand for the precious metal, a traditional, safe-haven asset.
Increased optimism of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut might also lift the non-interest-bearing bullion. Traders raise bets that the US central bank will cut rates more times this year and possibly sooner than previously expected as US data released Friday showed an unexpected fall in consumer spending.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Author
Lallalit Srijandorn
FXStreet
Lallalit Srijandorn is a Parisian at heart. She has lived in France since 2019 and now becomes a digital entrepreneur based in Paris and Bangkok.
