|

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD could find support on reduced rate hike expectations – Commerzbank

Gold trades flat when compared to Monday’s opening. US inflation data and/or the Fed and ECB could give new impetus to the Gold market next week, economists at Commerzbank report. 

Gold will be affected by three major events next week

“First, the US inflation data will be published – they could turn out to be more moderate than the market envisages. Though this may not have any impact on the Fed’s interest rate decision the day after, it could influence the tone taken at the press conference. If the market scales back its expectations with respect to the rate hike cycle, this is likely to lend buoyancy to Gold.” 

“Whether the third major event, the ECB’s meeting on Thursday, will then have any serious effect on prices, is somewhat doubtful.”

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

More from FXStreet Insights Team
Share:

Editor's Picks

AUD/USD falls from 0.7050 amid Iran uncertainty

AUD/USD is back in the red, falling from 0.7050 in the Asian session on Friday, reversing the previous day's goodish rebound from a nearly two-month low amid a modest US Dollar uptick. Iran downplayed Trump's claim that a deal has been approved and said that key issues, including the Strait of Hormuz and frozen funds, remain unresolved. This keeps a lid on optimism, which, along with Fed rate-hike bets, revives USD demand and weighs on the pair.

USD/JPY recovers above 160.00 as Mideast woes persist ahead of BoJ

USD/JPY recovers ground above 160.00 in the Asian session on Friday. Economic risks due to uncertainty in the Middle East undermine the Japanese Yen, while lifting the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) amid the US-Iran standoff. This acts as a tailwind for the pair, though fears of intervention could limit deeper JPY losses and cap the pair's rebound ahead of the BoJ meeting next week.

Gold sticks to losses amid Iran peace deal doubts and hawkish Fed bets

Gold attracts some sellers near the $4,246-$4,247 region during the Asian session, stalling the previous day's solid recovery move from its lowest level since November 2025. Mixed signals regarding a potential US-Iran peace deal revive demand for the safe-haven US Dollar.

Pi Network: Bulls attempt comeback as bearish strength fades

Pi Network (PI) is trading at around $0.120 after a modest recovery the previous day. Despite this recent rebound, traders should be cautious as a scheduled unlock of 14.8 million PI tokens on Friday could limit the token's recovery potential by increasing market supply. Meanwhile, the technical outlook is showing early signs of fading bearish momentum, suggesting a short-term bounce.

U.S. economic outlook: The Warsh era starts with a great debate

Warsh is starting his tenure at the Fed during a transition of sorts. Given the prior FOMC statement and the countless Fed speakers we’ve heard from since then, it seems Fed officials are in the midst of shifting toward a more neutral policy stance.

4.2% headline, 0.2% core: Why the Fed's next hike may be targeting the wrong problem

May's CPI put headline inflation at 4.2% on the year, up from 3.8% in April and the hottest reading since April 2023, while core prices rose just 0.2% on the month, undershooting the 0.3% consensus and halving April's pace.