Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD continues to juggle above $1,980.00 ahead of Fed policy and US data

Gold price is showing a sideways performance above $1,980.00 as investors await Fed policy.
S&P500 futures have recovered more losses recorded in early Asia amid improving risk-taking ability of investors.
Gold price is consolidating in a narrow range of $1,971-2,021 from the past week.

Sagar Dua FXStreet

Gold price (XAU/USD) is displaying a back-and-forth action above $1,980.00 in the Tokyo session. The precious metal is struggling to find direction as investors are awaiting the announcement of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy and other key United States data.

S&P500 futures have recovered more losses recorded in early Asia amid improving the risk-taking ability of the market participants. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is seeking support after a correction around 102.00. In early Asia, the USD Index dropped after failing to conquer two-week-old resistance at 102.20. It seems that the upside in the USD Index is capped as the street is anticipating neutral guidance from Fed chair Jerome Powell on interest rates.

On Monday, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI (April) managed to rebound to 47.1 from its lowest recording of 46.3 recorded since May 2022. However, a figure below the 50.0 threshold is considered a contraction in economic activity. The US Manufacturing PMI Has remained below 50.0 straight for the sixth time as higher interest rates by the Fed and bleak demand outlook have forced firms for capacity underutilization.

Going forward, US Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Employment data will be of significant importance. According to the estimates, the US labor market has witnessed an addition of 150K fresh addition of employees, higher than the former release of 145K.

Gold technical analysis

Gold price is consolidating in a narrow range of $1,971-2,021 from the past week as investors are awaiting the monetary policy by the Fed for a decisive move. Upward-sloping trendline March 22 low at $1,934.34 is acting as a cushion for the Gold bulls.

The 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1,990.28 is showing stickiness to the Gold price, indicating a lackluster performance.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is on the verge of slipping into the bearish range of 20.00-40.00, which will activate the bearish momentum.

Gold four-hour chart

XAU/USD

Overview
Today last price	1982.18
Today Daily Change	-0.36
Today Daily Change %	-0.02
Today daily open	1982.54

Trends
Daily SMA20	2000.34
Daily SMA50	1936.81
Daily SMA100	1899.39
Daily SMA200	1808.69

Levels
Previous Daily High	2006.06
Previous Daily Low	1977.12
Previous Weekly High	2009.41
Previous Weekly Low	1974.13
Previous Monthly High	2048.75
Previous Monthly Low	1949.83
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	1988.18
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	1995
Daily Pivot Point S1	1971.09
Daily Pivot Point S2	1959.63
Daily Pivot Point S3	1942.15
Daily Pivot Point R1	2000.03
Daily Pivot Point R2	2017.51
Daily Pivot Point R3	2028.97

Author

Sagar Dua

FXStreet

Sagar Dua is associated with the financial markets from his college days. Along with pursuing post-graduation in Commerce in 2014, he started his markets training with chart analysis.

GBP/USD trims losses, approaches 1.3500

GBP/USD adds to the multi-day negative streak, although it has managed to bounce off earlier four-week lows near 1.3470 on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Cable’s deep correction comes despite the tepid performance in the Greenback and the persistent geopolitical concerns.

EUR/USD slips back toward 1.1580 on USD recovery

EUR/USD comes under some pressure and revisits the 1.1580 region as the NA session draws to a close on Wednesday. That said, spot adds to Tuesday’s bearish performance while the Greenback is slowly gathering steam and leaving behind earlier lows.

Gold fails near $4,400 as Fed hike bets and Iran tensions support USD

Gold consolidates below $4,400 during the Asian session on Thursday, stalling the previous day's goodish recovery from a four-week low. Escalating US-Iran tensions and September Fed rate hike bets counter Wednesday's weak US ADP report, offering some support to the US Dollar and capping the commodity. However, sliding US bond yields could act as a tailwind for the non-yielding bullion.

Bitcoin holds $63K and $86K range as profit-taking risk builds

Bitcoin's recovery faces growing resistance as the market trades between a major accumulation zone below current prices and a dense concentration of potential supply overhead, according to a Glassnode report published Wednesday. After climbing above $80,000 on August 27, BTC encountered sustained selling pressure and retreated toward $76,000, triggering a series of long liquidations.

US President Donald Trump: Renewed campaign against Iran will not continue for too long

US President Donald Trump said that while the US is prepared to strike Iran again at any time, he doesn’t expect the renewed fighting to last “too long,” Reuters reported on Wednesday. Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said that Iran’s armed forces have “unforgettable lessons” in store for the US in his first message since fighting resumed after a month of relative calm.

Diesel’s record $100 warning: The oil shock hiding in plain sight

The Oil market may look calmer than it did a few months ago, but diesel is sending a very different message. The US diesel crack spread, the premium of ultra-low sulphur diesel futures over WTI, recently surged above $100 per barrel for the first time, reaching an intraday record of just over $102.00.