Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD consolidates around $3,550 ahead of US NFP data for August

Gold price trades sideways around $3,550 as investors await key US NFP data for August.
The US Dollar trades lower ahead of key US labor market data.
Economists expect the US economy to have added 75K fresh workers in August.

Sagar Dua FXStreet

Gold price (XAU/USD) trades in a tight range around $3,350 during the European trading session on Friday. The precious metal consolidates as investors await the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for August, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.

Investors will pay close attention to the US official labor market data as it will influence market expectations for the interest rate outlook. Fed dovish expectations intensified in early August after the July’s NFP report showed a significant revision in employed figures of May and June on the downside.

Lower interest rates by the Fed improves demand for non-yielding assets, such as Gold.

Economists expect US employers to have hired 75K fresh workers, almost in line with the July’s reading of 73K. The Unemployment Rate is expected to have accelerated to 4.3% from the former release of 4.2%.

Meanwhile, Average Hourly Earnings, a key measure of wage growth, is expected to have grown at a moderate pace of 3.7%, against 3.9% in July, with monthly figures rising steadily by 0.3%.

Ahead of the US NFP data, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.25% lower to near 98.00. Technically, lower US Dollar (USD) makes the Gold price an attractive bet for investors.

Gold technical analysis

Gold price’s rally hit pause after posting a fresh all-time high near $3,580 on Wednesday. The yellow metal strengthened after a breakout of the Symmetrical Triangle chart pattern formed on a daily timeframe.

The near-term trend of the Gold price is bullish as the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) slops higher around $3,436.70.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) jumps to near 75.00. A corrective move in the Gold price looks likely as the momentum oscillator turns overbought.

Looking down, the 20-day will act as key support for the major. On the upside, the round figure of $3,600 would be the key hurdle for the pair.

Gold daily chart

Author

Sagar Dua

FXStreet

Sagar Dua is associated with the financial markets from his college days. Along with pursuing post-graduation in Commerce in 2014, he started his markets training with chart analysis.

AUD/USD keeps range near 0.6950 after Australian trade data

AUD/USD consolidates near a two-month low, trading around mid-0.6900s in the Asian session on Thursday amid a bullish US Dollar. The US PCE data tempered October Fed hike bets, though oil-driven inflation fears remain supportive of elevated US bond yields. Meanwhile, Australia's trade surplus shrank sharply in August to AUD495M, having limited impact on the Aussie Dollar and the pair.

USD/JPY sits at weekly top above 158.00 as bullish USD counters intervention risks

USD/JPY is sitting at the top end of its weekly range above 158.00 in the Asian session on Thursday. Despite the softer US PCE data, oil-driven inflation risks keep US bond yields elevated near multi-year highs. Moreover, the US-Iran standoff benefits the safe-haven US Dollar and supports the pair. Broad US Dollar strength counters hawkish BoJ expectations and Japanese intervention risks.

Gold fails ahead of $4,200 as surging US yields and Iran risks lift USD closer to YTD top

Gold struggles to capitalize on a modest intraday move up to the $4,200 neighborhood, trading nearly unchanged for the day during the first half of the European session. Despite softer-than-expected US inflation data on Wednesday, US Dollar buying remains unabated as US bond yields continue scaling new multi-year highs. This is seen as a key factor undermining demand for the non-yielding bullion.

Hyperliquid pares gains as ETF outflows cap tentative bullish recovery

Hyperliquid (HYPE) is down 2% at press time on Thursday, trimming its 5% gains from the previous day. Institutional demand is easing, with $5 million in outflows on Wednesday, weighing on near-term investors' sentiment. The technical outlook for HYPE indicates a near-term mixed tone as the price remains capped below $90.

The Euro is near a one-year low: Inflation could trigger its rebound, not its fall

EUR/USD has fallen to its lowest level since May 2025, but a fresh inflation shock in the Eurozone could give the Euro an unexpected lifeline. The pair hit 1.1312 on Wednesday and trades well below the January peak of 1.2082. The decline reflects a powerful combination of US Dollar strength, geopolitical uncertainty and renewed concerns about Europe's exposure to higher energy prices.

The Euro is near a one-year low: Inflation could trigger its rebound, not its fall

EUR/USD has fallen to its lowest level since May 2025, but a fresh inflation shock in the Eurozone could give the Euro (EUR) an unexpected lifeline. The pair hit 1.1312 on Wednesday and trades well below the January peak of 1.2082.