Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD bulls take on the psychological $1,750 level


  • Gold consolidates the biggest daily losses in a week near early August levels.
  • Risk appetite improves on Evergrande news, post-Fed rethink and vaccine/stimulus optimism.
  • US Treasury yields should be watched carefully with eyes on China, second-tier data.
  • Gold Price Forecast: Risk-on weighs on the bright metal

Gold update: Gold (XAU/USD) is bid on Friday and taking on the $1,750 psychological level in recent trade. The correction of the daily bearish impulse could be headed for a test of the Fibonacci scale and the 38.2% ratio will be key near $1,756. Higher up, the golden 61.8% ratio is located at $1,768 and it will have a confluence with the 20-day EMA. Resistance there could result in a build-up for a downside continuation next week. 

However, the fundamentals are supporting a risk-on approach in markets with investors buying into the Federal Reserve optimistic economic outlook. With that being said, the Evergande situation is fluid and will be a risk going forward. 

Evergrande has resolved one coupon payment on a Shenzhen-traded bond but was due to pay $83.5 million in interest on a $2 billion offshore bond on Thursday and also has a $47.5 million dollar-bond interest payment next week. There is a 30-day window to arrange the payments for which the company says it endeavours to settle. 

''Evergrande Chairman Hui Ka Yan urged his executives late on Wednesday to ensure the delivery of quality properties and the redemption of its wealth management products, which are typically held by millions of retail investors in China,'' Reuters reported. 

End of update

Gold (XAU/USD) bears take a breather around a six-week low, picking up bids to $1,744 during the early Asian session on Friday.

The yellow metal dropped the most in a week the previous day after the US 10-year Treasury yields printed the biggest daily jump in seven months, around 1.43% by the press time.

After an initially downbeat reaction to the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) stint, the US bond yields rallied as traders reassessed the hawkish phenomenon of the US central banker. That said, the Fed left benchmark rates unchanged near 0.25% at the latest meeting but signaled rate hikes and tapering more seriously.

Elsewhere, fading fears that China’s struggled real-estate firm Evergrande is a serious threat to the economy plays a key role. The firm got restructuring plans and showed readiness to pay a scheduled coupon while also gained government support to lift the sentiment.

It’s worth noting that progressing talks over the US $3.5 trillion stimulus and vaccine optimism adds to the risk-on mood.

That said, Wall Street portrayed a rosy picture of the market sentiment while the S&P 500 Futures rise 0.10% at the latest.

It should be observed that softer prints of the US preliminary PMI readings for September couldn’t recall gold buyers, neither did the US Dollar Index (DXY) slump on Thursday, the biggest in a month.

Moving on, gold traders need to pay close attention to the US Treasury yields for fresh impulse while US New Home Sales for August, expected 0.7M versus 0.708M prior, may offer extra clues.

Technical analysis

Despite bouncing off 23.6% Fibonacci retracement (Fibo.) of the June-August downside, gold prices keep the previous day’s break of a six-week-old support line, now resistance around $1,750.

Also favoring sellers are the bearish MACD signals and sustained trading below 10-DMA, as well as a descending trend line from September 03.

It should be noted, however, that the August 10 low near $1,717 may challenge the gold bears past 23.6% Fibo. level of $1,741 as RSI inches close to the oversold conditions.

Should the metal drops below $1,717, the $1,700 threshold and the yearly low near $1,687 will return to the charts.

Meanwhile, an uptick beyond the support-turned-resistance near $1,750, will be probed by the 10-DMA level of $1,770 and a three-week-long resistance line close to $1,780.

Following the upside break of $1,780, the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels, respectively around $1,801 and $1,829, may entertain the gold buyers ahead of challenging then with the $1,834 double tops.

Overall, gold prices remain bearish but $1,717 will be a tough nut to crack for the sellers.

Gold: Daily chart

Trend: Further weakness expected

Additional important levels

Overview
Today last price 1744.1
Today Daily Change -24.05
Today Daily Change % -1.36%
Today daily open 1768.15
 
Trends
Daily SMA20 1794.09
Daily SMA50 1793.49
Daily SMA100 1815.43
Daily SMA200 1806.8
 
Levels
Previous Daily High 1787.35
Previous Daily Low 1764.79
Previous Weekly High 1808.67
Previous Weekly Low 1745.39
Previous Monthly High 1831.81
Previous Monthly Low 1687.78
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1773.41
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1778.73
Daily Pivot Point S1 1759.51
Daily Pivot Point S2 1750.87
Daily Pivot Point S3 1736.95
Daily Pivot Point R1 1782.07
Daily Pivot Point R2 1795.99
Daily Pivot Point R3 1804.63

 

 

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