Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD treading on thin ice

The price of gold has drawn significant attention over the week in the build-up and as a result of the Federal Reserve meeting. 

Bulls were looking for a confirmation of yield curve control and a nod towards negative rates, but instead, markets went into a tailspin on the bearishness from the chairman Jerome Powel. 

The meeting provided little discernable new information, apart from a statement suggesting the tapering of Treasury buying had run its course, opening the door for increases in the scale of QE.

The Fed will maintain its uber-easy policy for the foreseeable future, and may even utilize more tools (such as Yield Curve Control) to support yields amid massive Treasury issuances,

analysts at TD Securities explained. 

Subsequently, the dollar initially fell, but it has since picked up a safe haven bid. 

We have already witnessed that gold is not at ease with the pandemic narrative and there is wiggle room to the downside technically as the US dollar stabilises. 

Bears in control below trendline resistance, prior support

Gold is trading below a key trendline support and bears have survived a test to the upside following the breakout. 

1HR chart bearish

While below this trendline, horizontal and long-term support is holding. However, the environment is increasingly bearish with price below the 21-hour moving average and MACD below zero. 

38.2% and a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement on the cards 

Bears looking for a break below horizontal support for a run to test the key Fib targets and prior structures.