Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD primed for a falling channel breakout on 4H chart

Gold looks north amid a favorable technical set up on 4H chart.
A test of July high at $1985 is inevitable, with eyes on $2000.
Weekly closing above 100-SMA on 4H chart boosts the bullish odds.

Dhwani Mehta FXStreet

Friday’s surge led Gold (XAU/USD) on the verge of a falling channel breakout on the four-hour (4H) chart, as the price recaptured all the major Simple Moving Averages.

Therefore, the bullish momentum is likely to extend at the weekly opening in Asia on Monday, which could prompt the price take out the falling trendline resistance at $1969.

The weekly closing above the 100-Simple Moving Average at $1961.11 also adds credence to the upside bias while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains bullish, at 60.07.

The pattern will get confirmed once the abovementioned barrier at $1969 is taken out convincingly, with the buyers aiming for a test of the July high at $1985.

Next up, the critical $2000 barrier will be challenged en route the August 18 high of $2015.65. The record high at $2075 will be back in sight for the XAU bulls.

Alternatively, the bright metal could target the horizontal 50-SMA at $1944 if investors resort to profit-taking.

The next critical support is aligned at $1940, where the 20 and 200-SMAs coincide. A daily closing below the latter could revive the downside momentum.

Gold: Hourly chart

Gold Additional levels

XAU/USD

Overview
Today last price	1963.46
Today Daily Change	0.00
Today Daily Change %	0.00
Today daily open	1963.46

Trends
Daily SMA20	1969.78
Daily SMA50	1884.74
Daily SMA100	1800.8
Daily SMA200	1678.58

Levels
Previous Daily High	1973.96
Previous Daily Low	1923.25
Previous Weekly High	1976.79
Previous Weekly Low	1902.76
Previous Monthly High	1984.8
Previous Monthly Low	1757.7
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	1954.59
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	1942.62
Daily Pivot Point S1	1933.15
Daily Pivot Point S2	1902.85
Daily Pivot Point S3	1882.44
Daily Pivot Point R1	1983.86
Daily Pivot Point R2	2004.27
Daily Pivot Point R3	2034.57

Author

Dhwani Mehta

FXStreet

Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.

GBP/USD revisits 1.3530; Dollar pushes harder

GBP/USD adds to the weekly correction and recedes toward the 1.3530 zone on Friday. Indeed, Cable faces increasing selling pressure on the back of extra gains in the Greenback, particularly fuelled by Chair Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium and the US NFP Annual Revision (-79K).

EUR/USD breaches below 1.1600, multi-day lows

EUR/USD now accelerates its decline and retreats to seven-day troughs in the sub-1.1600 region at the end of the week. The pair’s pullback comes on the back of the strong rebound in the US Dollar after Chair Warsh delivered a hawkish message in Jackson Hole, while the US NFP Annual Revision came in at -79K.

Gold challenges its 200-day SMA near $4,530

Gold’s decline gathers fresh steam, hitting weekly lows while disputing its critical 200-day SMA near $4,530 per troy ounce. The yellow metal’s increasing weakness comes in response to the generalised upbeat tone in the US Dollar and the widespread rebound in US Treasury yields, as investors continue to reprice a Fed rate hike in September.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP rally loses steam despite steady ETF inflows

Bitcoin is back below $80,000 at the time of writing on Friday, after a second attempt at breaking resistance between $81,000 and $82,000. Meanwhile, Ethereum and Ripple mirror Bitcoin’s cooling trend, with ETH sliding to $2,500 and XRP falling toward $1.40 support.

Week ahead – RBNZ and BoC decide on rates ahead of all-important US NFP

Dollar rebounds ahead of ISM PMI and NFP data. RBNZ is expected to raise rates; focus to fall on forward guidance. BoC is set to remain on hold; will it raise rates in 2027?

Diesel’s record $100 warning: The oil shock hiding in plain sight

The Oil market may look calmer than it did a few months ago, but diesel is sending a very different message. The US diesel crack spread, the premium of ultra-low sulphur diesel futures over WTI, recently surged above $100 per barrel for the first time, reaching an intraday record of just over $102.00.