|

Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD needs to overcome $1,956 to unleash the upside – Confluence Detector

Gold has kicked off the new week by a minor rise from the lows, yet it shows some hesitance. The main downward driver for XAU/USD in the previous week was the Federal Reserve's relative hawkishness. The world's most powerful central bank seemed reluctant to introduce more stimulus. Less money printing means diminished support for the precious metal.

However, Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, is set to speak on Thursday and is set to lay out an updated view on the economy. Moreover, he may change his mind and clarify that the bank is ready to do more – including capping bond yields. Lower returns on US debt mean the yellow metal is more attractive. 

How is XAU/USD positioned on the charts?

The Technical Confluences Indicator is showing that gold is facing critical resistance at $1,956, which is the convergence of the Simple Moving Average 10-one-day and the previous daily high. 

Further up, a soft cap awaits at $1,961, which is the meeting point of the SMA 5-one-day and the Pivot Point one-day Resistance 1. 

Support awaits at $1,939, which is a dense cluster including the SMA 5-4h, the BB 1h-Middle, the SMA 50-15m, the SMA 10-4h, and the Fibonacci 61.8% one-day. 

Further down, the next cushion is at $1,932, which is the confluence of the Fibonacci 23.6% one-month and the previous 4h-low. 

Key XAU/USD resistances and supports

Confluence Detector

The Confluence Detector finds exciting opportunities using Technical Confluences. The TC is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc. Knowing where these congestion points are located is very useful for the trader, and can be used as a basis for different strategies.

Learn more about Technical Confluence

Author

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam

FXStreet

Yohay is in Forex since 2008 when he founded Forex Crunch, a blog crafted in his free time that turned into a fully-fledged currency website later sold to Finixio.

More from Yohay Elam
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD struggles to extend advance above 1.1800

The EUR/USD pair posts a fresh weekly low near 1.1740 during the Asian trading session on Wednesday. The major currency pair is under pressure as the US Dollar edges higher despite Federal Open Market Committee minutes of the December policy meeting, released on Tuesday, showing that most policymakers stressed the need for further interest rate cuts.

GBP/USD tests 1.3450 support after moving below nine-day EMA

GBP/USD remains subdued for the second consecutive day, trading around 1.3460 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates a weakening of a bullish bias as the pair is positioned slightly below the lower boundary of the ascending channel pattern.

Gold jumps on US rate cut prospects, safe-haven demand

Gold price extends the rally above $4,350 during the early European trading hours on Wednesday. Gold's price has surged about 65% this year and is set to record its biggest annual gains since 1979. The rally in the precious metal is bolstered by the prospect of further US interest rate cuts in 2026. Lower interest rates could reduce the opportunity cost of holding Gold, supporting the non-yielding precious metal.

Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP prepare for a potential New Year rebound

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple are holding steady on Wednesday after recording minor gains on the previous day. Technically, Bitcoin could extend gains within a triangle pattern while Ethereum and Ripple face critical overhead resistance. 

Economic outlook 2026-2027 in advanced countries: Solidity test

After a year marked by global economic resilience and ending on a note of optimism, 2026 looks promising and could be a year of solid economic performance. In our baseline scenario, we expect most of the supportive factors at work in 2025 to continue to play a role in 2026.

Crypto market outlook for 2026

Year 2025 was volatile, as crypto often is.  Among positive catalysts were favourable regulatory changes in the U.S., rise of Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT), adoption of AI and tokenization of Real-World-Assets (RWA).