|

Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD extends the rangebound price moves around $1730 area

  • A combination of diverging forces failed to provide any meaningful impetus to gold.
  • The range-bound price action constitutes the formation of a bearish rectangle pattern.
  • Neutral oscillators warrant caution before positioning for any firm near-term direction.

Gold lacked any intraday directional bias and seesawed between tepid gains/minor losses through the first half of the European session. The commodity was last seen trading around the $1730 region, nearly unchanged for the day.

Concerns that the third wave of COVID-19 infections and pandemic-related restrictions could delay the global economic recovery extended some support to the safe-haven XAU/USD. However, a generally positive tone around the equity markets, stronger US dollar and a modest uptick in the US Treasury bond yields capped the upside for the commodity.

Looking at the technical picture, the XAU/USD has been oscillating in a narrow trading band over the past two weeks or so – barring the post-FOMC move up. The range-bound price action constitutes the formation of a rectangle pattern on hourly charts. This might still be categorized as a bearish continuation pattern, marking a brief pause in the trend.

The negative outlook is reinforced by the fact that the XAU/USD has repeatedly struggled to find acceptance above the $1742-44 supply zone. That said, neutral technical indicators haven't been supportive of any firm near-term direction. This makes it prudent to wait for a sustained move in either direction before placing any aggressive bets.

Meanwhile, the lower boundary of the trading range, around the $1720 region might continue to act as immediate support. A convincing break below will reaffirm a bearish break and drag the commodity to the $1700 mark. The downfall could further get extended back towards multi-month lows, around the $1677-76 region touched earlier this month.

On the flip side, the $1742-44 region remains a strong hurdle. A sustained breakthrough, leading to a subsequent strength beyond the trading range resistance, around the $1748 level, will be seen as a key trigger for bullish traders. The XAU/USD might then accelerate the move towards challenging the $1760-65 strong horizontal support breakpoint.

The latter coincides with 200-period SMA on the 4-hourly chart, which if cleared decisively will set the stage for additional gains. The precious metal might then surpass an intermediate barrier near the $1773-75 region and aim to reclaim the $1800 mark.

XAU/USD 4-hourly chart

fxsoriginal

Technical levels to watch

XAU/USD

Overview
Today last price1732.23
Today Daily Change-2.73
Today Daily Change %-0.16
Today daily open1734.96
 
Trends
Daily SMA201726.26
Daily SMA501787.01
Daily SMA1001826.41
Daily SMA2001860.65
 
Levels
Previous Daily High1738.48
Previous Daily Low1723.86
Previous Weekly High1755.59
Previous Weekly Low1719.3
Previous Monthly High1871.9
Previous Monthly Low1717.24
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%1732.9
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%1729.44
Daily Pivot Point S11726.39
Daily Pivot Point S21717.81
Daily Pivot Point S31711.77
Daily Pivot Point R11741.01
Daily Pivot Point R21747.05
Daily Pivot Point R31755.63

Author

Haresh Menghani

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

More from Haresh Menghani
Share:

Editor's Picks

GBP/USD revisits 1.3530; Dollar pushes harder

GBP/USD adds to the weekly correction and recedes toward the 1.3530 zone on Friday. Indeed, Cable faces increasing selling pressure on the back of extra gains in the Greenback, particularly fuelled by Chair Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium and the US NFP Annual Revision (-79K).

EUR/USD breaches below 1.1600, multi-day lows

EUR/USD now accelerates its decline and retreats to seven-day troughs in the sub-1.1600 region at the end of the week. The pair’s pullback comes on the back of the strong rebound in the US Dollar after Chair Warsh delivered a hawkish message in Jackson Hole, while the US NFP Annual Revision came in at -79K.

Gold battles key support amid renewed Iran and Fed hike risks

Gold is resuming Friday’s steep downside early Monday as the NFP week kicks in. US Dollar sees a profit-taking pullback, despite hawkish Fed’s Warsh and fresh Iran risks. Gold attacks 21-day SMA near $4,400 after Friday’s close below 200-day SMA; RSI is still bullish.

Week ahead: RBNZ and BoC decide on rates ahead of all-important US NFP
The US dollar staged a modest recovery this week, perhaps as traders decided to cover some of their short positions amid slightly stickier or in-line US PCE inflation numbers for July, confounding expectations of softer prints amid the softness revealed in the CPI data for the month.
US Dollar Weekly Forecast: Focus is back on 100.00 as Fed hawks take centre stage

It has already been a positive week for the US Dollar, but a hawkish speech from Chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole Symposium may have laid the groundwork for a more sustained rebound in the Buck.

Diesel’s record $100 warning: The oil shock hiding in plain sight

The Oil market may look calmer than it did a few months ago, but diesel is sending a very different message. The US diesel crack spread, the premium of ultra-low sulphur diesel futures over WTI, recently surged above $100 per barrel for the first time, reaching an intraday record of just over $102.00.