Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD bulls turn cautious above $1,900 ahead of US NFP


  • Gold retraces from one week high, flashed Thursday, of $1,912.16.
  • Risk set-up stays mildly positive despite US stimulus deadlock, fresh odds of US-China tussle.
  • Hopes that further easy monetary policy will direct central bankers towards gold favor buyers.
  • A light calendar can join Beijing’s Golden Week holidays to magnify the pre-NFP trading lull.

Gold prices struggle to keep the bounce off $1,903.72 while taking rounds to $1,906 during the early Asian session on Friday. The yellow metal surged to the highest since September 22 the previous day before stepping back from $1,912.16. Among other things, US dollar weakness becomes the major reason for the bullion buyers to stay hopeful. Also helping the safe-haven commodity could be the recently sluggish performance of US equities.

Greenback weakness propels recovery moves…

With a four-day losing streak, the US dollar index (DXY) dropped to the one-week low the previous day. US policymakers’ inability to break the coronavirus (COVID-19) stimulus deadlock recently weighed the US currently. Downbeat ISM Manufacturing PMI and cautious sentiment ahead of September month’s US employment numbers, up for Friday, can be cited as extra reasons for the greenback’s latest weakness.

Other risk catalysts, namely COVID-19 and Brexit, are flashing downbeat signals and adds to the safe-haven demand of gold. Also favoring the bullion could be the news that the US Senators are pushing for a trade deal with Taiwan, which in turn can renew the Sino-American tension.

Amid all these plays, S&P 500 Futures print mild gains above 3,350 after Wall Street marked another day filled with small profits.

In addition to the aforementioned factors, expectations that the central bank buying of gold will rise also favor the bullion buyers. A piece from Bloomberg cites analysis from the Citi Bank and HSBC to convey the hypothesis.

Moving on, global markets may witness a dull day as the pre-NFP trading lull will join the absence of Chinese players. However, Japanese traders will be able to cheer the return of Tokyo trading after a technical glitch stopped markets on Thursday. Forecasts suggest that the US employment numbers for September will flash mixed results and keep the global market's worried.

Read: US Employment Situation Report September Preview: A challenge to define normality

Technical analysis

Not only the 50-day EMA level around $1,908 but 21-day EMA near $1,912 and a falling trend line from August 07, at $1,932.50 now, also probe the gold buyers. Meanwhile, the $1,881/77 region can probe the sellers ahead of highlighting the 100-day EMA level of $1,857.

Additional important levels

Overview
Today last price 1905.84
Today Daily Change 19.94
Today Daily Change % 1.06%
Today daily open 1885.9
 
Trends
Daily SMA20 1919.67
Daily SMA50 1945.26
Daily SMA100 1850.91
Daily SMA200 1730.83
 
Levels
Previous Daily High 1902.36
Previous Daily Low 1881.52
Previous Weekly High 1955.66
Previous Weekly Low 1848.84
Previous Monthly High 1992.42
Previous Monthly Low 1848.82
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1889.48
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1894.4
Daily Pivot Point S1 1877.49
Daily Pivot Point S2 1869.09
Daily Pivot Point S3 1856.65
Daily Pivot Point R1 1898.33
Daily Pivot Point R2 1910.77
Daily Pivot Point R3 1919.17

 

 

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