Gold Price Analysis: Bears waiting to move in if solid NFP outcome


  • Gold is on the offer below critical daily support structures.
  • Bears are looking for a break into the $1,750s for the rest of the week. 

Update: The gold price has remained firm despite the bearish bias from a technical perspective, as illustrated below where the $1,750s were marked out as a target for the closing sessions of the week. However, the price is currently trading at $1,770 and up on the day by 0.1% so far. The drift higher is slow and could be subject to a sell-off if the bulls don't commit with bigger size and demand in the coming hours. The main event will be the US Nonfarm Payrolls, so there could be some cause to move to the sidelines.

Analysts are expecting a positive outcome which would be expected to fuel the US dollar and weigh on the gold price. ''US November non-farm payrolls are expected to reflect the robust momentum in the economy (Westpac f/c (and market median): 550k) which should also see the Unemployment rate edged lower (market f/c: 4.5%),'' analysts at Westpac explained. ''Average hourly earnings growth is expected to remain strong given the limitations on labour supply (market f/c: 0.4%).''

End of update

The price of gold has been on the backfoot while the greenback consolidates and risk appetite improves. The US stock market has surged back to life with the S&P 500 running up over 1.6% on the day so far.

Gold, on the other hand, has fallen around 1% and is printing a fresh low at the time of writing at $1,763.51. The price has fallen from $1,783.45 on the day. Investors continue to acknowledge the hawkish tilt at the Federal Reserve which makes this week's Nonfarm Payrolls a key event ahead of the December Fed meeting.

The idea that the Fed is closer to a rate hike is dampening the demand for the non-yielding inflation hedge that is the yellow metal. Strong jobs on Friday could be the nail in the coffin for gold and support the greenback higher in anticipation of a faster rate of tapering from the Fed. 

''Payrolls probably surged again,'' analysts at TD Securities explained. ''A strong trend continues to be signalled by surveys and claims, but our forecast also reflects the latest Homebase data—with a decline in the Homebase series more than accounted for by seasonality. Along with our +650k forecast for payrolls, we forecast a 0.2pt decline in the unemployment rate and a 0.4%MoM (5.0% YoY) rise in hourly earnings.''

Meanwhile, the United States recorded its first case of the Omicron variant on Wednesday, weighing on market sentiment. The person was fully vaccinated and is experiencing "mild symptoms, which are improving at this point," Fauci said. Dr. Grant Colfax, San Francisco's director of public health, said the person had not had a booster shot. Meanwhile, the United States and Germany also added to the nations around the globe planning stricter COVID-19 restrictions on Thursday. 

Gold technical analysis

''The yellow metal has struggled to shore up enough support to catalyze a buying program amid Chair Powell's more hawkish communications,'' analysts at TD Securities argued.

''However, while the hawkish announcement has thus far kept gold prices from breaking north of a key threshold for CTA short covering, it ultimately does not represent a significant shift relative to market pricing. In turn, CTA trend followers may still have a surprise in store for the hawks should prices break north of $1790/oz.''

Following a restest of the counter trendline, the price is deteriorating below daily support that would now be expected to act as resistance. The focus is on the $1,750s for the remainder of the week.

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