According to analysts at NAB, global financial markets had been recovering strongly from the turbulence of late last year but have given up some their gains following the latest round of US-China tariff increases.
“There have been some signs of activity stabilising – Q1 GDP in some major economies was either stronger or unchanged, and the global composite PMI has basically moved sideways this year. However, our leading indicator of global activity continues to point to a slowdown in growth.”
“Given this, and the flare up in the US-China trade dispute last week, we have lowered our forecasts for global growth in 2019 to 3.3% (3.4%). We then expect growth to slowly return to its long-term trend, rising to 3.4% in 2020 (revised from 3.5%) and 3.5% in 2021.”
“This projected return to trend reflects expected supportive policy settings, a fading impact from trade measures announced to-date, and a recovery from country/region specific shocks that have been weighing on growth (notably within the Eurozone and Latin America). Trade remains one of the key risks to the outlook.”
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