GBP/USD stands firm near multi-month peak, just below mid-1.2900s on weaker USD

GBP/USD attracts some follow-through buying on Monday amid a bearish US Dollar.
Bets that the Fed will cut rates multiple times in 2025 continue to weigh on the buck.
Expectations for a slow BoE rate-cutting cycle underpin the GBP and support the pair.

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

The GBP/USD pair kicks off the new week on a positive move and trades around the 1.2940-1.2945 region during the Asian session, or a four-month high touched on Friday. Moreover, the bearish sentiment surrounding the US Dollar (USD) supports prospects for an extension of last week's breakout momentum above the very important 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA).

In fact, the USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, hangs near its lowest level since early November touched in reaction to weaker US monthly employment details on Friday. The headline Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) print showed that the US economy added 151K jobs in February, less than consensus estimates. Adding to this, the previous month's reading was revised down to 125K and the Unemployment Rate unexpectedly edged higher to 4.1% from 4.0% in January.

This comes on top of worries that US President Donald Trump's policies will hit economic activity in the US and suggests that the Federal Reserve (Fed) remains on track to cut interest rates multiple times this year. The markets are currently pricing in about three rate cuts of 25 bps each this year, which continues to weigh on the buck and supports the GBP/USD pair. The USD bulls failed to gain any respite from Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments that the US central bank is in no rush to cut rates.

The British Pound (GBP), on the other hand, is underpinned by expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will cut rates more slowly than other central banks, including the Fed. This turns out to be another factor that contributes to the bid tone around the GBP/USD pair and validates the positive outlook. In the absence of any relevant market-moving economic releases, either from the UK or the US, the USD will continue to influence spot prices and allow traders to grab short-term opportunities.

Pound Sterling FAQs

What is the Pound Sterling?

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).

How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling?

The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.

How does economic data influence the value of the Pound?

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.

How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound?

Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

Author

Haresh Menghani

FXStreet

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

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