GBP/USD: Short term downtrend eroded - Commerzbank

Sandeep Kanihama FXStreet Contributor

According to Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, GBP/USD pair has recently eroded its short term downtrend and this is now acting as support at 1.2967.

Key Quotes

“The intraday Elliott wave count has turned more positive and we have already reached 1.3188/97, the 61.8% retracement and 3rd April high. It will need to regain 1.3217 (25th January high) to introduce scope up to the 1.3351/82 resistance, where we expect it to struggle. Dips lower should hold around the 200 day ma at 1.2960. Failure here targets the 1.2865 April low and this in turn protects the February low at 1.2772.”

“Below 1.2772 we would allow for losses to the 1.2669/62 15th January low and August low and possibly the 1.2609/78.6% retracement.”

Author

Sandeep Kanihama

FXStreet Contributor

Sandeep Kanihama is an FX Editor and Analyst with FXstreet having principally focus area on Asia and European markets with commodity, currency and equities coverage. He is stationed in the Indian capital city of Delhi.

AUD/USD remains depressed 0.7000, awaits FOMC Minutes

AUD/USD struggles to capitalize on its recent recovery move and trades with a negative bias below 0.7000 in Wednesday's Asian session. Amid geopolitical uncertainty, the US Dollar attracts some dip-buyers after a fresh leg up in US bond yields, keeping the pair under pressure despite hawkish RBA expectations. All eyes now remain on the FOMC Minutes.

USD/JPY holds firm near 158.50 ahead of Fed Minutes

USD/JPY hangs close to a one-and-a-half-week high near 158.50 in the Asian session on Wednesday, with bulls now awaiting a move beyond the 200-day SMA hurdle before positioning for further gains ahead of the FOMC Minutes. Meanwhile, a fresh leg up in US bond yields revives US Dollar demand amid geopolitical uncertainties, boosting the pair amid dovish BoJ commentary.

Gold eyes Fed Minutes for fresh impetus after holding $4,100

Gold is fading the previous rebound in Asia on Wednesday, struggling near $4,150. US Dollar bounces in sync with Oil prices and US Treasury yields ahead of FOMC Minutes. From a short-term technical view, Gold remains a ‘sell-on-bounce’ trade.

USD/INR remains broadly muted after RBI’s 25 bps hike in Repo Rates to 5.5%

The Indian Rupee has not shown a significant reaction against the US Dollar, following the RBI’s monetary policy decision. The RBI has raised its key Repo Rate by 25 bps to 5.5%. India’s central bank shifts policy stance to 'calibrated tightening' from 'neutral'.

France's government could fall over the budget. Here's what that would actually mean for the Euro

The Euro (EUR) is trading at its lowest level since May 2025, nearly 7% below its January peak, and France's government could fall over its 2027 budget before the end of November. A French government falling hasn't moved the Euro much by itself, so the risk to price is narrower: France losing its place under the emergency safety net the European Central Bank (ECB) keeps for government bonds.

Eurozone inflation just hit 3.8%, its highest in three years. This chart shows why the ECB can’t simply hike its way out

The ECB would normally have a relatively straightforward answer to inflation running almost twice its target: raise interest rates. But these are not normal circumstances. This time, the bond market is already doing part of the tightening for it, leaving the ECB facing an increasingly difficult dilemma.