|

GBP/USD set for a break lower from 1.2500 as Brexit evolution continues

  • With the Brexit deal's parliamentary vote officially delayed, PM May now has to survive an onslaught of no-confidence letters.
  • May's spokesman said that the delay could last up to six weeks, but May's cabinet may not have that long.

As GBP/USD trades into the 1.2500 critical level heading into Wednesday's London market session, Brexit continues to hang over the Cable like a cloud, and Prime Minister Theresa May's decision to pull her Withdrawal Proposal at the last moment is drawing plenty of ire, and risk sentiment continues to skew towards the downside as May's hopes of pulling any eleventh-hour concessions out of the EU are looking slim.

Sterling falls to new 2018 low with lower targets on rumors of May facing a no-confidence vote

The current Brexit landscape has come a long way in the last 48 hours, with the tense run-up into PM May's parliamentary vote on her current (ad likely only) divorce proposal giving way to what amounts to a wheel-locked waiting period: one of May's spokespeople noted that the House vote on May's Brexit deal could be postponed for up to six weeks, and while May's withdrawal initially saw a glimmer of hope that she would head to Brussels in an effort to secure any last-minute concessions that would help her win over any of the nay votes on her home turf, Angela Merkel dashed those hopes in short order, and now the UK headings into the mid-week inflection point with no vote, no deal, and no talks.

Wednesday will be clean of UK economic data, and Thursday will be likewise empty, with only RICS Housing Prices on the docket early Thursday at 00:01 GMT, well before the London markets open, and the clear lack of actionable figures will see the Cable facing down a steady stream of Brexit headlines, and Prime Minister May is now faced with the growing reality that a no-confidence vote in her government may be much closer than she's prepared for; 48 letters of no-confidence are required to trigger the process of unseating the PM, and while we don't have an exact count of how many have been delivered, it's safe to say that the count likely sits far closer to the critical number than PM May is comfortable with.

GBP/USD Levels to watch

Cable bears are really beginning to put the rubber to the road, according to FXStreet's own Valeria Bednarik

The pair is down for a sixth consecutive week but there are no signs of downward exhaustion, neither of an upcoming change in the current downward trade. The pair is trading below Monday's closing level and posted a lower low and a lower high daily basis, signaling bears hold the grip tight. In the shorter term, and according to the 4 hours chart, the risk is also skewed to the downside, as the 20 SMA accelerates south well above the current level, while technical indicators quickly resumed their declines after correcting oversold conditions, now maintaining strong downward slopes.

Support levels: 1.2490 1.2465 1.2430
Resistance levels: 1.2550 1.2590 1.2640 

Author

Joshua Gibson

Joshua joins the FXStreet team as an Economics and Finance double major from Vancouver Island University with twelve years' experience as an independent trader focusing on technical analysis.

More from Joshua Gibson
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD rebounds after falling toward 1.1700

EUR/USD gains traction and trades above 1.1730 in the American session, looking to end the week virtually unchanged. The bullish opening in Wall Street makes it difficult for the US Dollar to preserve its recovery momentum and helps the pair rebound heading into the weekend.

GBP/USD steadies below 1.3400 as traders assess BoE policy outlook

Following Thursday's volatile session, GBP/USD moves sideways below 1.3400 on Friday. Investors reassess the Bank of England's policy oıtlook after the MPC decided to cut the interest rate by 25 bps by a slim margin. Meanwhile, the improving risk mood helps the pair hold its ground.

Gold stays below $4,350, looks to post small weekly gains

Gold struggles to gather recovery momentum and stays below $4,350 in the second half of the day on Friday, as the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield edges higher. Nevertheless, the precious metal remains on track to end the week with modest gains as markets gear up for the holiday season.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP rebound amid bearish market conditions

Bitcoin (BTC) is edging higher, trading above $88,000 at the time of writing on Monday. Altcoins, including Ethereum (ETH) and Ripple (XRP), are following in BTC’s footsteps, experiencing relief rebounds following a volatile week.

How much can one month of soft inflation change the Fed’s mind?

One month of softer inflation data is rarely enough to shift Federal Reserve policy on its own, but in a market highly sensitive to every data point, even a single reading can reshape expectations. November’s inflation report offered a welcome sign of cooling price pressures. 

XRP rebounds amid ETF inflows and declining retail demand demand

XRP rebounds as bulls target a short-term breakout above $2.00 on Friday. XRP ETFs record the highest inflow since December 8, signaling growing institutional appetite.