GBP/USD Price Analysis: The initial support level is located at 1.2610

GBP/USD trades in positive territory around 1.2628 in Monday’s early European session.
The pair keeps the bearish outlook below the key EMA; RSI indicator lies below the 50 midlines.
The first upside barrier is seen in the 1.2640–1.2645 region; 1.2610 acts as an initial support level.

Lallalit Srijandorn FXStreet

The GBP/USD pair holds positive ground near 1.2628, snapping the two-day losing streak on Monday. The modest recovery of the major pair is backed by the dovish comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell. The Fed’s Powell stated on Friday that recent US inflation data was in line with expectations and that the Fed's goal for the interest rate this year remained unchanged. The US central bank maintains projections of three rate cuts this year, and traders anticipate the first rate cuts will begin in the June meeting.

According to the four-hour chart, GBP/USD maintains the bearish outlook unchanged as the major pair is below the key 50-period and 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the four-hour chart. Additionally, the downward momentum is supported by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which lies below the 50 midlines, suggesting the path of least resistance level is to the downside.

The first upside target for GBP/USD is seen near the confluence of the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band and the 50-period EMA at the 1.2640–1.2645 zone. A decisive break above the mentioned level will expose the 100-period EMA at 1.2671. Further north, the next hurdle is located at a high of March 18 at 1.2746, and finally the 1.2800 psychological level.

On the flip side, the lower limit of the Bollinger Band at 1.2610 acts as an initial support level for the major pair. Any follow-through selling will see a rally to a low of March 22 at 1.2575. The contention level to watch is a low of February 14 at 1.2535, and finally at the 1.2500 round figure.

GBP/USD four-hour chart

GBP/USD

Overview
Today last price	1.2628
Today Daily Change	0.0003
Today Daily Change %	0.02
Today daily open	1.2625

Trends
Daily SMA20	1.2717
Daily SMA50	1.2676
Daily SMA100	1.2657
Daily SMA200	1.259

Levels
Previous Daily High	1.2645
Previous Daily Low	1.261
Previous Weekly High	1.2668
Previous Weekly Low	1.2586
Previous Monthly High	1.2894
Previous Monthly Low	1.2575
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	1.2632
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	1.2624
Daily Pivot Point S1	1.2608
Daily Pivot Point S2	1.2592
Daily Pivot Point S3	1.2573
Daily Pivot Point R1	1.2643
Daily Pivot Point R2	1.2662
Daily Pivot Point R3	1.2679

Author

Lallalit Srijandorn

FXStreet

Lallalit Srijandorn is a Parisian at heart. She has lived in France since 2019 and now becomes a digital entrepreneur based in Paris and Bangkok.

AUD/USD stays weak above 0.6900 after China’s trade data

AUD/USD struggles to capitalize on the previous day’s recovery and stays defensive on the 0.6900 level following the narrowing of trade surplus in China. Increased December Fed rate hike bets allows the US Dollar to pause its decline and weigh on the pair. US CPI data is next of note for the major.

USD/JPY retakes 158.00 on weak Japanese data; focus shifts to US CPI

USD/JPY attracts some dip-buyers and retakes 158.00 in the Asian session on Tuesday as a fall in Japan’s Household Spending offsets hawkish BoJ Summary of Opinions, undermining the Japanese Yen. Moreover, Fed hike bets support the safe-haven US Dollar and the currency pair. The market focus now shifts to the release of the crucial US CPI report.

Gold slides below $4,100 as Fed hike bets exert pressure ahead of US CPI

Gold extends its intraday descent and slides below the $4,100 mark, reversing a major part of the previous day's strong gains to the $4,150 resistance. Firming US Federal Reserve rate-hike expectations turn out to be a key factor driving flows away from the non-yielding bullion. Meanwhile, the US Dollar struggles to lure buyers amid mixed signals regarding the state of diplomatic talks between the US and Iran. This could offer some support to the commodity as traders seem hesitant ahead of US consumer inflation figures.

Bitcoin hits lowest weekly close since August as short-term holders slip into losses

Bitcoin fell below $75,000 on Tuesday, after recording its lowest weekly close since August as selling pressure pushed recent buyers into losses.

US CPI data set to ease in October as markets reassess Fed rate hike expectations

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the October Consumer Price Index data on Tuesday, a release that could influence the US Dollar valuation as investors reassess the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate outlook. The report won’t include 12-month percentage changes for most CPI series in this release, due to missing October 2025 monthly data because of the lack of collection during the government shutdown from October 1, 2025, to November 12, 2025.

Gold reclaimed $4,100. Tuesday’s CPI test decides if it holds

Gold (XAU/USD) starts the week on a positive note, reclaiming the $4,100 psychological level as the US Dollar (USD) retreats from its recent highs. The precious metal recovers from Friday's losses, although investors remain cautious ahead of Tuesday's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which could determine the next direction for Bullion.