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GBP/USD dips despite upbeat UK's inflation report, eyes on BoE and Fed remarks

  • GBP/USD falls 0.20% post-UK inflation report, trading near the 200-day MA at 1.2565.
  • Fed officials highlight easing inflation, advocate for flexible policy guidance, impacting market dynamics.
  • UK inflation data and BoE Governor's comments reflect cautious optimism amidst economic recovery signs.

The Pound Sterling drops during the North American session by 0.20% following a positive UK inflation report that showed prices are slowing down. At the time of writing, the GBP/USD trades at 1.2565 and tests the important 200-day moving average (DMA) after hitting a high of 1.2611.

GBP/USD tests key 200-DMA support level sponsored by investors trimming odds for Fed rate cuts

The US economic docket featured Federal Reserve speeches by the Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and Governor Christopher Waller. Goolsbee said that inflation is coming down and added that current policy is restrictive. He said that rate cuts should be tied to confidence that inflation is on the Fed’s path.

Lately, Fed Governor Waller noted that one lesson learned from 2020 is that forward guidance should be more flexible. He added that forward guidance perhaps should also signal the possible path of the policy rate.

Besides that, GBP/USD takes cues from the fall in US Treasury bond yields after skyrocketing more than 12 basis points a day ago, dropping six basis points and standing at 4.26%.

In the European session, the UK’s inflation was lower than expected, standing at 4% YoY, unchanged from December but below estimates of 4.2%. Underlying inflation came at 5.1% YoY, unchanged but below estimates of 5.2%.

Recently, the Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey said the latest inflation report does not change their view from February’s monetary policy decision, adding they need to see more evidence that prices are coming down. Bailey added that there were signs the UK economy is picking up, despite Thursday’s data showing it was in recession in the second half of last year.

GBP/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook

The daily chart portrays the pair as neutral to downward biased, with the GBP/USD hovering around the 200-DMA at 1.2561.  a daily close below the latter could open the door to challenge 1.2500, followed by the 100-DMA at 1.2487. Once cleared, that could open the door to test the next support level seen at 1.2374, November’s 17 low.

GBP/USD

Overview
Today last price1.2558
Today Daily Change-0.0031
Today Daily Change %-0.25
Today daily open1.2589
 
Trends
Daily SMA201.2665
Daily SMA501.2675
Daily SMA1001.2495
Daily SMA2001.2565
 
Levels
Previous Daily High1.2688
Previous Daily Low1.2573
Previous Weekly High1.2643
Previous Weekly Low1.2518
Previous Monthly High1.2786
Previous Monthly Low1.2597
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%1.2617
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%1.2644
Daily Pivot Point S11.2545
Daily Pivot Point S21.2502
Daily Pivot Point S31.243
Daily Pivot Point R11.266
Daily Pivot Point R21.2732
Daily Pivot Point R31.2775

Author

Christian Borjon Valencia

Markets analyst, news editor, and trading instructor with over 14 years of experience across FX, commodities, US equity indices, and global macro markets.

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