|

GBP/USD climbs above 1.3500 after dismal US jobs data

  • GBP/USD rose above 1.3500 in the American session on Friday.
  • The US Dollar stays under heavy selling pressure.
  • Nonfarm Payrolls in the US rose by 22,000 in August.

GBP/USD gathered bullish momentum and climbed above 1.3500 in the American session on Friday. At the time of press, the pair was up 0.6% on the day at 1.3515.

Pound Sterling Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the US Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.74%-0.66%-0.75%-0.12%-0.92%-0.95%-0.80%
EUR0.74%0.09%-0.10%0.62%-0.09%-0.19%-0.06%
GBP0.66%-0.09%-0.16%0.53%-0.17%-0.29%-0.11%
JPY0.75%0.10%0.16%0.69%-0.10%-0.16%0.11%
CAD0.12%-0.62%-0.53%-0.69%-0.75%-0.83%-0.67%
AUD0.92%0.09%0.17%0.10%0.75%-0.12%0.07%
NZD0.95%0.19%0.29%0.16%0.83%0.12%0.17%
CHF0.80%0.06%0.11%-0.11%0.67%-0.07%-0.17%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).

The renewed selling pressure surrounding the US Dollar (USD) seems to be fuelling GBP/USD's rally heading into the weekend.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday that Nonfarm Payrolls (NSP) rose by 22,000 in August. This print missed the market expectation of 75,000 by a wide margin. In this period, the Unemployment Rate edged higher to 4.3% from 4.2% in July, as expected.

With the immediate reaction to the disappointing employment report, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury bonds turned south and was last seen losing 2% on the day, below 4.1%. In turn, the USD Index slumped to its lowest level since late July near 97.50.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in about a 75% probability that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will opt for 25 basis-points (bps) rate cuts both in September and October policy meetings.

Nonfarm Payrolls FAQs

Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) are part of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly jobs report. The Nonfarm Payrolls component specifically measures the change in the number of people employed in the US during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

The Nonfarm Payrolls figure can influence the decisions of the Federal Reserve by providing a measure of how successfully the Fed is meeting its mandate of fostering full employment and 2% inflation. A relatively high NFP figure means more people are in employment, earning more money and therefore probably spending more. A relatively low Nonfarm Payrolls’ result, on the either hand, could mean people are struggling to find work. The Fed will typically raise interest rates to combat high inflation triggered by low unemployment, and lower them to stimulate a stagnant labor market.

Nonfarm Payrolls generally have a positive correlation with the US Dollar. This means when payrolls’ figures come out higher-than-expected the USD tends to rally and vice versa when they are lower. NFPs influence the US Dollar by virtue of their impact on inflation, monetary policy expectations and interest rates. A higher NFP usually means the Federal Reserve will be more tight in its monetary policy, supporting the USD.

Nonfarm Payrolls are generally negatively-correlated with the price of Gold. This means a higher-than-expected payrolls’ figure will have a depressing effect on the Gold price and vice versa. Higher NFP generally has a positive effect on the value of the USD, and like most major commodities Gold is priced in US Dollars. If the USD gains in value, therefore, it requires less Dollars to buy an ounce of Gold. Also, higher interest rates (typically helped higher NFPs) also lessen the attractiveness of Gold as an investment compared to staying in cash, where the money will at least earn interest.

Nonfarm Payrolls is only one component within a bigger jobs report and it can be overshadowed by the other components. At times, when NFP come out higher-than-forecast, but the Average Weekly Earnings is lower than expected, the market has ignored the potentially inflationary effect of the headline result and interpreted the fall in earnings as deflationary. The Participation Rate and the Average Weekly Hours components can also influence the market reaction, but only in seldom events like the “Great Resignation” or the Global Financial Crisis.

Author

Eren Sengezer

As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.

More from Eren Sengezer
Share:

Editor's Picks

AUD/USD stabilizes above two-week low/0.6950 as traders await US election results

AUD/USD edges higher in the Asian session on Wednesday, recovering slightly from a two-week low touched on a less hawkish RBA reaction the previous day. Hopes for Iran diplomacy undermine the safe-haven US Dollar and support the currency pair, though the upside remains capped as traders await US midterm election results.

USD/JPY retreats from three-week top, slips below 158.50 amid intervention risks and softer USD

USD/JPY slides below 158.50 in the Asian session on Wednesday, snapping a two-day winning streak to hit a near three-week high the previous day, as intervention risks support the Japanese Yen. Meanwhile, the US Dollar remains on the back foot amid hopes for Iran diplomacy, further weighing on the currency pair as traders brace for some volatility surrounding US midterm election results.


Gold consolidates below $3,950 as Fed hike bets counter softer USD ahead of US election results

Gold struggles to capitalize on the previous day's bounce from sub-$3,900 levels, oscillating in a range during the Asian session on Wednesday as traders brace for short-term market volatility surrounding US midterm election results. Meanwhile, hopes for Iran diplomacy weigh on the safe-haven US Dollar and support bullion, though upside remains capped amid Fed rate hike bets.

Ethereum: US-led selling keeps ETH below $2,309 realized price
Ethereum (ETH) faces pressure near $2,300 on Tuesday as it struggles to recover its realized price. The top altcoin fell below its realized price, or investors' average on-chain cost basis, at $2,309 following the $6.3 billion Binance hack last Thursday.
US Midterms: Can Wall Street rally despite AI debt and credit risks?
Political uncertainty may be coming to an end, but the real question for investors is whether the technology sector can sustain its enormous spending commitments. The US midterm elections are arriving at an interesting moment for financial markets.
The 2% inflation target came from a throwaway remark. It now moves trillions
The Federal Reserve's 2% inflation goal grew out of an off-the-cuff remark by a New Zealand politician in 1988. Bond investors still price long-term US debt as if 2% holds, so a change in how the Fed measures inflation would move markets.