France: Growth outlook softens on weaker business climate – ING

ING economist Charlotte de Montpellier notes that French business confidence fell further in February, with the overall climate below its long‑term average and services particularly weak. She argues this deterioration reduces the chances that French GDP growth in early 2026 will accelerate beyond the 0.2% pace seen in late 2025, although full‑year 2026 growth is still projected around 1%.

Business sentiment clouds GDP prospects

"Overall, the February business climate has deteriorated more than expected and suggests an economic environment that is less resilient than anticipated."

"The data published today therefore suggests that GDP growth in the first quarter would have difficulty exceeding the 0.2% recorded in the fourth quarter of 2025, and a slower pace cannot be ruled out."

"For the rest of the year, however, the outlook remains moderately favourable, with GDP growth expected to be around 1%."

"The expected increase in real wages could support household consumption and investment, provided confidence holds up."

"For 2027, we expect growth to reach 1.1%, but political and fiscal risks remain high."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)