GBP/USD: BoE will not do the pound any favours – TDS

The Bank of England hiked its Bank Rate by 50 bps to 2.25%. In the opinion of economists at TD Securities, the BoE will not do GBP any favours, reflecting the current macro mix that will invite higher inflation and lower real rates.

The BoE hiked Bank Rate by 50 bps to 2.25%

“The BoE opted for the 50 bps hike. They are inching towards more aggressive hikes, but that probably won't do GBP many favours. For starters, monetary policy tightening has advanced to dovetail with the boost to fiscal spending. In turn, the policy mix requires tighter monetary policy just to keep pace with the fiscal spending. In the short term, that will likely exacerbate inflationary conditions, leading to a drop in real rates, especially relative to the USD.”

“We continue to expect further GBP downside, especially against the USD. GBP/USD HFFV sits near 1.18, though we think the pair will continue to trade with a discount in the months ahead. That leaves us looking to fade near-term rallies ahead of 1.15.”