GBP/USD a good deal of BoE easing is priced into the pound - Scotiabank

Ani Salama FXStreet

Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategist, said they believe that a good deal of BoE easing is priced into the pound, so further weakness will hinge on the actual scale of the ease and/or BoE messaging.

Key Quotes

“Sterling has under-performed broadly in the overnight session and has failed conspicuously to participate in the broader positioning squeeze on the USD. UK asset managers reported significant net outflows following Brexit and Lloyds Bank reported 3000 job cuts in a post-Brexit review of costs. Further “hard” evidence of the consequences of Brexit for BoE policy makers to mull next week. At this point, we have to think that a good deal of BoE easing is priced into the pound so further weakness will hinge on the actual scale of the ease and/or BoE messaging. Gov Carney has certainly not stood in the way of a weaker pound. We remain bearish.”

“GBPUSD short-term technicals: bearish—In broad terms, Cable continues to consolidate (bearish, triangular continuation pattern) after the sharp drop seen through late June/early July. We spot intraday resistance at 1.3230/40. Support is 1.3100 intraday. Major (bear break out) support is 1.3015.”

Author

Ani Salama

FXStreet

Ani Salama is an Economist specialized in financial markets and statistics analysis. In 2010, she joined FXstreet where she now contributes with the news section.

EUR/USD remains offered below 1.1600, seems vulnerable near multi-month low

The EUR/USD pair struggles to capitalize on the overnight bounce from the 1.1530 region, or the lowest level since November 2025, and lower for the third consecutive day on Wednesday. Spot prices slide back below the 1.1600 mark during the Asian session and seem vulnerable to slide further.

GBP/USD weakens to near 1.3300 as geopolitical risks bolster US Dollar

The GBP/USD pair attracts some sellers to around 1.3310 during the early European session on Wednesday. Escalating conflict in the Middle East triggers a "flight to safety," supporting the US Dollar against the Pound Sterling. Traders will take more cues from the US ADP Employment and ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index reports, which are due later on Wednesday.

Gold sticks to intraday gains above $5,150; upside seems limited amid bullish USD

Gold preserves its modest intraday gains through the Asian session on Wednesday and currently trades just above the $5,150 level, up around 1.30% for the day. Investors remain concerned about a prolonged conflict in the Middle East and its impact on the global economy amid an already uncertain environment.

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple struggle for direction as consolidation persists

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple prices trade with a cautious tone at the time of writing on Wednesday as upside momentum continues to fade across the broader crypto market. BTC remains within a parallel channel, ETH struggles below key resistance, while XRP remains fragile within a descending channel. These top three cryptocurrencies by market capitalization continue to struggle to establish a directional bias amid the consolidation phase.

When rates start driving the bus through a war zone

The volatility regime itself is also changing character. EM carry trades thrive in calm markets. They suffocate in environments that resemble Buckaroo Banzai trading conditions, where headlines move faster than models. That is exactly the world investors are now trying to recalibrate to. Euro rate volatility had been remarkably subdued even while equities were wobbling. That stability is now being questioned, and once volatility leaks into rates it rarely stays contained. Indeed, carry trades love calm seas. War turns the ocean into white water.

Ripple falters amid sell-off jitters and negative funding rates

Ripple (XRP) has come under pressure, drifting lower to $1.35 at the time of writing on Tuesday. The over 2% correction looks poised to erase the previous day’s gains, which lifted the remittance token to $1.42.