GBP shorts surge, USD longs increased – Rabobank

According to the IMM net speculators’ positioning as at April 02, 2019, GBP net short positions increased a touch from the previous week when they were at their lowest level since June 2018.

Key Quotes

“From a legal perspective the UK is on course for a no deal Brexit on April 12. That said, clearly speculators are betting that this will be avoided at the 11th hour – in line with the market consensus.”

“USD long increased moderately last week. Having dropped lower in the November/December period in response to a more dovish outlook for the Fed, USD longs then consolidated for a lengthy period. Another leg lower occurred in mid-March.”

“Short EUR positions surged last week. They have been climbing since the start of the year, reflecting the loss of confidence in the outlook for the Eurozone economy and expectation for a more dovish ECB. Last week EUR shorts recorded their highest level since December 2016.”

“Net JPY short positions have been pushed higher recently suggesting an improvement in risk appetite.”

“CHF net shorts dropped slightly last week though they have been trending higher since mid-January – not too different from the movement in the JPY.”

“CAD net shorts moved higher last week, but remain in a choppy range. BoC policy and oil price movements are in view. AUD net shorts have been trending higher since the start of the year reflecting the market’s more dovish expectations for RBA policy.”