GBP/JPY edges higher to near 199.30 as UK gilts rebound faster than Japan’s bonds

GBP/JPY gains slightly to near 199.30 as long-dated bond yields in the UK correct faster than in Japan.
BoE’s Bailey acknowledged market expectations of uncertainty over further interest rate cuts in the remainder of the year.
Investors await key UK Retail Sales data for July.

Sagar Dua FXStreet

The GBP/JPY pair ticks up to near 199.30 during the European trading session on Thursday. The cross edges higher as the Pound Sterling (GBP) gains, following a decent recovery in demand for United Kingdom (UK) long-dated gilts.

Lately, both the GBP and the Japanese Yen (JPY) were facing a sharp selling pressure as long-term government borrowing costs in both the UK and Japan soared due to mounting debt concerns.

30-year UK gilt yields have corrected 3.3% from its recent highs of 5.75% to near 5.50%. Meanwhile, yields on 30-year Japan Government Bonds (JGBs) have also declined but at a slower pace. 30-year JGB yields are down 1.8% to near 3.25% from its all-time high of 3.3%.

Another reason behind strength in the Pound Sterling is comments from Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey, in a hearing before the House of Commons’ Treasury Committee on Wednesday, signaling uncertainty over the pace of interest rate cuts.

BoE Governor Bailey said, “There is considerably more doubt on how fast we can cut rates, and added market pricing suggests my message has been understood.” Traders see an almost 33% chance that the BoE will cut interest rates one more time in the remainder of the year, Reuters reported.

Going forward, investors will focus on the UK Retail Sales data for July, which will be released on Friday.

UK gilt yields FAQs

What are UK Gilt Yields?

UK Gilt Yields measure the annual return an investor can expect from holding UK government bonds, or Gilts. Like other bonds, Gilts pay interest to holders at regular intervals, the ‘coupon’, followed by the full value of the bond at maturity. The coupon is fixed but the Yield varies as it takes into account changes in the bond's price. For example, a Gilt worth 100 Pounds Sterling might have a coupon of 5.0%. If the Gilt's price were to fall to 98 Pounds, the coupon would still be 5.0%, but the Gilt Yield would rise to 5.102% to reflect the decline in price.

What factors influence the level of Gilt Yields?

Many factors influence Gilt yields, but the main ones are interest rates, the strength of the British economy, the liquidity of the bond market and the value of the Pound Sterling. Rising inflation will generally weaken Gilt prices and lead to higher Gilt yields because Gilts are long-term investments susceptible to inflation, which erodes their value. Higher interest rates impact existing Gilt yields because newly-issued Gilts will carry a higher, more attractive coupon. Liquidity can be a risk when there is a lack of buyers or sellers due to panic or preference for riskier assets.

How do interest rates impact UK Gilt Yields?

Probably the most important factor influencing the level of Gilt yields is interest rates. These are set by the Bank of England (BoE) to ensure price stability. Higher interest rates will raise yields and lower the price of Gilts because new Gilts issued will bear a higher, more attractive coupon, reducing demand for older Gilts, which will see a corresponding decline in price.

How does inflation influence UK Gilt Yields?

Inflation is a key factor affecting Gilt yields as it impacts the value of the principal received by the holder at the end of the term, as well as the relative value of the repayments. Higher inflation deteriorates the value of Gilts over time, reflected in a higher yield (lower price). The opposite is true of lower inflation. In rare cases of deflation, a Gilt may rise in price – represented by a negative yield.

What is the relationship between Gilt Yields and the Pound Sterling?

Foreign holders of Gilts are exposed to exchange-rate risk since Gilts are denominated in Pound Sterling. If the currency strengthens investors will realize a higher return and vice versa if it weakens. In addition, Gilt yields are highly correlated to the Pound Sterling. This is because yields are a reflection of interest rates and interest rate expectations, a key driver of Pound Sterling. Higher interest rates, raise the coupon on newly-issued Gilts, attracting more global investors. Since they are priced in Pounds, this increases demand for Pound Sterling.

Author

Sagar Dua

FXStreet

Sagar Dua is associated with the financial markets from his college days. Along with pursuing post-graduation in Commerce in 2014, he started his markets training with chart analysis.

AUD/USD hangs close to monthly lows, still defends 0.7100 ahead of Fed decision

AUD/USD retains its negative bias for the third straight day, defending 0.7100 while trading close to a monthly low in Wednesday's Asian session on Wednesday. The US Dollar stands firm near a two-week high as the anticipated Fed rate hike and oil-driven inflation fears continue to push US bond yields to a multi-year high. Furthermore, escalating Middle East tensions benefit the safe-haven buck and weigh on the risk-sensitive Aussie.

USD/JPY holds firm above 155.00, awaits Fed policy announcements

USD/JPY climbs to a fresh one-week high above 155.00 in the Asian session on Wednesday amid a bullish US Dollar. Oil-driven inflation fears, along with the anticipated Fed rate hike, continue to support surging US bond yields. Moreover, rising US-Iran tensions underpin the USD's reserve currency status. The pair, however, remains below the mid-155.00s as bulls seem hesitant ahead of the Fed decision later today and the BoJ meeting, starting on Thursday.

Gold defends key $4,280 support ahead of Fed verdict

Gold is attempting another run above $4,300 early Wednesday, replicating a tepid bounce seen in Tuesday’s Asian trading. Gold’s next major directional move depends on the US Federal Reserve monetary policy decision and outlook due later in the day.

Ethereum continues to attract capital despite impending rate hike and Clarity Act failure

Ethereum declined to $2,400 on Tuesday after the Clarity Act failed to progress in the Senate. Despite that and the market's near certainty of an interest rate hike at the next Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting, the top altcoin has continued to attract fresh capital. Ethereum buyers have been dominating sellers over the past few days.

August UK inflation report expected to show rising inflation

The United Kingdom Office for National Statistics will publish the highly anticipated Consumer Price Index data for August on Wednesday at 06:00 GMT. The inflation report could trigger volatility in the British Pound, as it comes just one day before the Bank of England monetary policy decision.

How Japan became the World's Banker and why that era may be ending

Japan's ultra-low interest rates helped finance trillions of dollars in global investments for more than a decade, making the Japanese Yen one of the world’s cheapest sources of funding. With the Bank of Japan expected to tighten policy again this week, that advantage may be entering a new phase. While most major economies raised interest rates, Japan remained the world's outlier.