Alain Durré, Research Analyst at Goldman Sachs, explains that following the latest first-round election, the independent centrist Emmanuel Macron and the Front National (FN)’s Marine Le Pen have qualified for the second-round run-off of the French Presidential election on 7 May and Goldman Sachs expect Mr. Macron to win the run-off by a healthy margin.
Key Quotes
“According to the latest official figures published by the Interior Ministry, Mr.n Macron topped the first round (with 23.75% of the vote), while Ms. Le Pen came in second place (with 21.53%).”
“Although Ms. Le Pen’s realised vote share represented an underperformance relative to the opinion polls taken just ahead of the first round, she beat her (and former FN leader Jean-Marie Le Pen’s) previous vote share in presidential elections (as well as the number of votes cast for the FN in the December 2015 regional elections). Reflecting France’s ongoing political realignment, with the traditional left / right distinction being superseded by a division between mainstream pro-European and populist Eurosceptic voters, the gap of roughly 25bp between Mr. Macron and Ms. Le Pen in recent opinion polls is likely to narrow in the run-up to the second round.”
“That said, we think it likely that Mr. Macron will win the Presidency in two weeks’ time. Supporters of other mainstream candidates are likely to support Mr. Macron so as to present a broad united front (dubbed the “front républicain”) against the FN in the run-off (an expectation bolstered by the support expressed by Messrs. Fillon and Hamon – the centre-right and Socialist candidates, respectively – for Mr. Macron). Moreover, left-wing populist supporters (who voted for Mr. Mélenchon in the first round) are unlikely to cast a vote for the FN because of its perceived far-right extremism.”
“Mr. Macron also enjoys a healthy lead in the latest opinion polls for the second round (which were conducted after the outcome of yesterday’s first-round election became clear). These polls suggest a victory for Mr. Macron against Ms. Le Pen, with between 62% and 64% of votes.”
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