France: GDP to grow 1.6% in 2018 before slowing down to 1.4% in 2019 - ING

"Business confidence was stable in November, and increased in the retail sector, even as service hiring intentions fell to a three-year low," note ING analysts. "But this was before grassroots protests over high fuel costs paralysed shopping centres, leading to a temporary drop in sales. If the protests continue, business confidence could take a hit in December."

Key quotes

"In manufacturing, confidence showed a slight rebound from 104 to 104.8 in November, consistent with levels last seen in the early stages of the short recovery two years ago. Inventories were stable while both recent and expected production were on the rise."

"We note however that foreign orders, which remained elevated until last month, are also declining while domestic order books have suffered from weak domestic demand. This could hamper an acceleration of the current business investments recovery."

"All in all, the November confidence surveys confirm that the 4Q GDP rebound could be more limited than expected. Private consumption growth should decelerate from the already weak 1.2% reached in 2017 and we have revised our GDP growth forecast for 2018 to 1.6% before slowing down further next year to 1.4%."