|

Forex Today: US Dollar bears celebrate Fed’s dovishness

What you need to take care of on Thursday, February 2:

The US Dollar plummeted following the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision. The central bank decided to hike its benchmark rate by 25 basis points (bps) as widely anticipated by market players. The statement showed that policymakers changed the wording on inflation, noting that it  “has eased somewhat but remains elevated,” although there were no other relevant changes to the document. Furthermore, it noted that the Committee believes that “ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate” to return inflation to 2%, hinting at more rate hikes in the docket.

US Fed Chair Jerome Powell started his statement by repeating the Fed is strongly committed to reaching its 2% inflation target. He also repeated that job gains have been robust, and the unemployment rate has remained low. However, he later added that, for the first time, “we can declare that a deflationary process has begun.” On the appropriate restrictive level, Powell said that a couple more rate hikes are needed to reach it. Finally, he ended up admitting that rate cuts could take place this year “if inflation comes down much faster.” Following the event, the US Fed Terminal Rate fell to under 4.9%, while the end-2023 Fed Funds Rate fell below 4.4%, as markets are still pricing in rate cuts for this year.

European inflation eased more than anticipated in January, according to preliminary estimates. The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) rose at an annualized pace of 8.6%. The news helped EUR/USD to overcome the 1.0900 threshold ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s announcement, with the pair ending the American session near a multi-month high of 1.1000 afterwards. The European Central Bank will announce its monetary policy decision on Thursday.

The GBP/USD pair struggled throughout the day to extend gains beyond 1.2300, as investors await the Bank of England monetary policy decision. The BoE is set to raise rates by another 50 basis points, while market players will be looking for clues about an easy pace of tightening from March on. It settled at 1.2370, up on the broad US Dollar weakness.

Commodity-linked currencies benefited from the positive tone of Wall Street, with AUD/USD hovering around 0.7140 and USD/CAD down to 1.3280. Finally, USD/JPY trades at around 128.90.

Spot gold soared and currently hovers at around $1,950 a troy ounce.

Crude oil prices edged lower as the OPEC+ meeting began, with no production changes on the agenda. A build in US inventories as reported by EIA also weighed on crude prices, as US stockpiles were up by 4.14 million in the week ended January 27.  At the time being, WTI trades at around $76.90 a barrel.

Fed remains hawkish with 25 bps hike, how will Bitcoin price react?


Like this article? Help us with some feedback by answering this survey:

Author

Valeria Bednarik

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

More from Valeria Bednarik
Share:

Editor's Picks

GBP/USD defends 1.3300 after strong UK PMI data

Following Thursday's sharp decline, GBP/USD clings to small gains above 1.3300 in the American session on Friday, supported by the upbeat UK Retail Sales and July PMI data. Nevertheless, the pair's upside remains capped as investors cling to a cautious stance amid a further escalation of tensions in the Middle East. The US July PMI data failed to trigger relevant price action.

EUR/USD remains below 1.1400 after mixed US PMIs

EUR/USD pressures daily lows below the 1.1400 mark in the American session on Friday. Mixed S&P Global PMIs, as manufacturing output contracted while services activity expanded in July, triggered no relevant market reaction. The focus remains in Middle East developments and inflation-related concerns.

Gold holds above $4,050 but momentum still missing

Gold builds on its modest intraday bounce and climbs above the $4,050 level on Friday, hitting a fresh daily high amid a modest US Dollar pullback. The fundamental backdrop, however, warrants some caution before confirming that the pullback from an over two-week high, touched on Wednesday, has run its course and positioning for any meaningful upside.

Ethereum: Derivatives interest in ETH improves, but signs of caution remain

Ethereum is hovering slightly below the $1,900 level, down 3% on Thursday following a slight expansion in derivatives interest. The top altcoin's open interest has increased to 14.60 million ETH, marking a 600K ETH increase over the past two days and its highest level since June 7.

XRP retreats as ETF interest cools
Ripple (XRP) slides toward the short-term $1.10 support on Friday, as broader crypto market sentiment weighs on crypto assets. The sell-off mainly stems from fears of inflation in the United States (US) amid the ongoing war in the Middle East and rising Oil prices.
US Dollar mid-year outlook: Exceptional currency, exceptional risks?
The US Dollar enters the second half of 2026 in a markedly different position from a year ago. The King currency has recovered, reflecting persistent US inflation, changing expectations for Fed policy, geopolitical tensions and renewed demand for defensive assets.