Forex Today: Sterling surges as poll backs Boris, dollar bulls thankful, Trump angers China

Yohay Elam FXStreet

Here is what you need to know on Thursday, November 28:

UK elections: YouGov's highly-anticipated MRP poll has shown a landslide 65-seat majority for Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Conservatives. GBP/USD has reacted positively and trades well above 1.29.

The US economy is doing well, according to data released ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday. Third-quarter Gross Domestic Product was upgraded to 2.1%, and Durable Goods Orders jumped in October, reflecting a rebound in investment. However, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge slipped to 1.6%.

Sino-American relations: The safe-haven yen regained some ground after President Donald Trump's signing into law of the Hong Kong bill that has angered China. Support for protesters in the city-state is seen by Beijing as an intervention in its internal affairs. However, trade talks continue.

AUD/USD has been on the back foot following Trump's signing of the HK bill and also due to accusations in the Australian media of Chinese spying which have been criticized by China. Moreover, Australian Private Capital Expenditure missed with a drop of 0.2% in the third quarter.

NZD/USD has weathered the storm after ANZ's Business Confidence measure recovered to -26.4 in November.

German preliminary inflation figures for November are due out today, shaping expectations for Friday's euro-zone numbers.

Several members of the European Central Bank have been supporting a review of the bank's monetary policy after Christine Lagarde took over as president.

Low liquidity is likely in the US session due to the holiday.

Cryptocurrencies have been extending their recovery with Bitcoin topping $7,500.

More Why is the US attempting to change China’s trade model?

Author

Yohay Elam

FXStreet

Yohay is in Forex since 2008 when he founded Forex Crunch, a blog crafted in his free time that turned into a fully-fledged currency website later sold to Finixio.

AUD/USD remains below 0.7000 amid light trading

AUD/USD fills a modest bearish gap on Monday, but remains below 0.7000 in the Asian session amid holiday-thinned liquidity. The US Dollar attempts a bounce even as US bond yields pull back from multi-year highs, limiting the pair. Moreover, diminishing odds of another RBA rate hike in November cap the Aussie.

USD/JPY hovers above 158.00 amid Japan/ US holiday

USD/JPY extends its range-bound price action into a new week, trading above 158.00 as bulls remain on high alert amid speculation that authorities will step in to prop up the Japanese Yen. Meanwhile, softer US bond yields keep US Dollar bulls on the back foot and cap the pair's upside. However, geopolitical uncertainties could limit losses for the safe-haven buck amid thin liquidity due to a holiday in Japan and the US.

Gold remains vulnerable below $4,200 on Fed hike bets

Gold is under mild selling pressure on Monday, trading at around $4,170. The US Dollar advances modestly in thin trading, supported by bets that the Federal Reserve will hike rates at least one more time before year-end.

Bitcoin struggles as ETF outflows, geopolitical uncertainty weigh

Bitcoin hovers around $83,600 on Monday after a 3.1% correction last week. US-listed spot ETFs recorded an outflow of $681.10 million last week, snapping the three-week inflow streak. Geopolitical uncertainty and mixed signals keep investors cautious.

The week ahead: A critical week as earnings and CPI test market

The Oil price is relatively stable this morning, and US and European stock markets are poised to open higher, as risk sentiment shrugs off an escalation in the Middle East and concerns about rising bond yields.

Has Bitcoin really escaped the macro forces it was built to fight?

Over 17 years ago, Satoshi Nakamoto designed Bitcoin (BTC) on the back of a global financial crisis as an alternative to the global monetary system outside the control of central banks, governments and traditional intermediaries. This raises a key question: has Bitcoin really become independent of the macroeconomic forces it was built to challenge?