Forex Today: Soggy Black Friday mood, GBP/USD retreats, EZ inflation awaited

Yohay Elam FXStreet

Here is what you need to know on Friday, November 29, Black Friday:

Currency movement has been subdued amid the Thanksgiving holiday in the US. Nevertheless, Asian stocks and US share futures are down as China's dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump's move to sign the Hong Kong bill into law persists. Gold prices are a tad higher.

Euro-zone: Inflation figures are set to show a rise in the Consumer Price Index, with Core CPI set to increase to 1.2% YoY. The publication is preceded by French inflation data and also by German employment figures. Preview: Euro-zone inflation preview: Warm welcome for Lagarde? EUR/USD may rise

UK elections: GBP/USD has eased after rising in response to YouGov's broad MRP poll. The Conservative Party protested against Channel 4's inclusion of an ice sculpture of Boris Johnson instead of having a replacement for him in a debate on climate change. The PM denied that he will open up the National Health Service (NHS) to American companies. UK GfK Consumer Confidence remained at -14, indicating pessimism as the shopping season begins. New opinion polls ahead of the December 12 elections are awaited.

Japan: Preliminary inflation figures for Tokyo have shown ongoing subdued inflation. Haruhiko Kuroda, Governor of the Bank of Japan, has said he will not hesitate to introduce additional monetary stimulus.

USMCA: Discussions between Canada and Mexico continue on finalizing some details in the new free trade agreement which includes the US. Democrats and Republicans have made progress on ratifying the accord in Congress.

Canada is forecast to report an annualized Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 1.2% in the third quarter, a more modest pace in comparison to 3.7% in the second quarter.

Cryptocurrencies have been consolidating their recovery with Ethereum battling $150 after UpBit, a Korean crypto-exchange, confirmed theft of ETH worth $50 million.

More A China trade conversation with FXStreet senior analyst Joseph Trevisani

Author

Yohay Elam

FXStreet

Yohay is in Forex since 2008 when he founded Forex Crunch, a blog crafted in his free time that turned into a fully-fledged currency website later sold to Finixio.

AUD/USD consolidates above 0.7000; remains close to monthly top

AUD/USD holds steady above 0.7000 during the Asian session on Friday, trading just below the previous day's monthly low amid diverging forces. A hawkish RBA continues to support the Aussie, while the recent decline in US bond yields keeps the US Dollar depressed near a three-week low. However, oil-driven inflation fears reinforce Fed hike bets, which, along with geopolitical risks, could benefit the safe-haven buck and cap the currency pair.

USD/JPY bounces off one-month low; climbs to 157.00 amid reviving USD demand

USD/JPY rebounds from the 156.00 neighborhood, or a one-month low touched during Friday’s Asian session, with bulls looking to extend momentum beyond 157.00 amid the emergence of some US Dollar buying. Meanwhile, Japan's National CPI rose to a nine-month peak and reaffirmed BoJ rate-hike bets, which could support the Japanese Yen and cap gains for the currency pair.

Gold treads water around $4,000

Gold prices maintain its offered stance in place at the end of the week, hovering around the key $4,000 threshold per troy ounce. The persistent selling bias in the precious metal comes amid decent gains in the US Dollar and an acceptable rebound in US Treasury yields across the curve, all alongside further upside traction in crude oil prices.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin holds the 50-day EMA as Ethereum and XRP face structural resistance

Bitcoin gradually ticks up on Friday, trading above $81,000. The Crypto King has recently defended structural support near $80,000, reinforcing the prevailing bullish outlook. Ethereum similarly edges higher above $2,400, while Ripple trades above $1.32 after testing support around $1.30.

The French bond panic is overdone. Here's what the market is misreading

France's 10-year government bond yield has climbed above 5%, reigniting fears of a sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone. With public debt exceeding €3.5 trillion, persistent budget deficits and a fragmented political landscape, investors are increasingly questioning the French government's ability to stabilize its finances.

What November 3 means for the Fed's rate path and the US Dollar

The USD faces a decisive period ahead of the November 3 midterm elections. While markets anticipate another interest rate increase from the Fed in December, the battle for control of Congress could reshape fiscal policy expectations and, indirectly, the path of US monetary policy in 2027.