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Forex Today: Oil and US dollar cheer Iran deal fallout, focus shifts to US PPI

FXStreet Team FXStreet

The Japanese Yen was the weakest in Asia across the fx board today, as broad-based US dollar strength remained the underlying theme following Trump’s decision to pull out the US from Iran’s nuclear deal. Both crude benchmarks also benefited from the Iran deal fallout, having helped limit the downside in the commodity currencies. The Kiwi traded cautiously ahead of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) monetary policy decision due tomorrow.

The Asian equity markets traded mostly mixed, with the Japanese stocks the main laggard amid M & A news while markets digest the responses from Japan and China on the Trump’s decision.

Main topics in Asia

Mnuchin: Sanctions are effectively going in place 'immediately'

The US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin spoke about Iran sanctions following the US' withdrawal from the Iranian deal earlier.

Saudi energy minister: Saudi Arabia/OPEC will mitigate supply shocks

A Saudi energy minister spoke today to make a statement about energy prices and oil fluctuations.

Japanese real wages rise the first time in four months in March

The inflation-adjusted real wages in Japan rose for the first time in four months in March. boosting odds of higher consumer spending in coming months.

Brent crude oil futures rise to $76.74 - highest since Nov. 2014

Brent oil rose to $76.74 in Asia - the highest level since November 2014 as investors anticipate a significant tightening of the oil markets in the second half of this year, courtesy of Iran deal fallout.

RBNZ: Format of monetary policy statement has been updated

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand came out with a statement on Wednesday, announcing that the central bank has revised the format of the monetary policy statement.

Japan’s Suga: The US withdrawal from Iran deal is very regrettable

Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga was on the wires last minutes, via Reuters, noting that the US withdrawal from Iran deal is very regrettable.

Key Focus ahead

Today macro calendar is absolutely quiet for Europe, with nothing significant slated for release while markets will continue to track the USD dynamics and developments surrounding the Italian politics. Moving, the NA session offers the Canadian building permits and US PPI data ahead of the US Energy Information Administration (US) weekly crude inventories data release, which will keep the CAD and oil traders on the edge.

EUR/USD: Bearish setup intact, Italy repeat election is a risk to the EUR

The EUR/USD pair looks oversold as per the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) and a minor corrective rally looks overdue if we take into account a bullish RSI divergence seen in the 4-hour chart.

GBP/USD clattering against the bottom as Thursday's BoE action looms

The Sterling has fallen against the resurgent US Dollar for three consecutive trading weeks, tumbling almost 6%. This week's focus has turned to Super Thursday, with the BoE introducing their latest rate call and a speech from the BoE's head, Mark Carney.

More Volatility on the Way!!

Oil markets had an extremely volatile session, and predictably volumes soared causing clearing delays. So, what’s next? More volatility of course!!

BoE to keep rates unchanged - Reuters Poll

The Bank of England (BoE) is now expected to keep rates unchanged at their next meeting, according to poll results from Reuters.

GMT	Event	Actual	Consensus	Previous
Tuesday, May 08
24h	CZK Liberation Day
24h	EUR Day of victory over fascism
24h	EUR Victory in Europe Day
23:01	GBP BRC Like-For-Like Retail Sales (YoY)	-4.2%	-0.8%	1.4%
23:50	JPY JP Foreign Reserves	$1,256.0B		$1,268.3B
Wednesday, May 09
00:00	JPY Labor Cash Earnings (YoY)	2.1%	1.1%	1.0% Revised from 1.3%
24h	RUB Victory Day
04:30	EUR Manufacturing Output (MoM)	-0.1%		-0.9% Revised from -0.2%
05:00	JPY Coincident Index	116.4	116.4	116.0 Revised from 116.1
05:00	JPY Leading Economic Index	105.0	105.2	105.9 Revised from 106.0
06:00	DKK Current Account			13.5B
06:00	NOK Consumer Price Index (YoY)			2.2%
06:00	NOK Consumer Price Index (MoM)			0.3%
06:00	NOK Core Inflation (MoM)			0.2%
06:00	NOK Core Inflation (YoY)			1.2%
06:00	NOK Producer Price Index (YoY)			6.4%
06:45	EUR Industrial Output (MoM)		0.4%	1.2%
07:00	EUR Industrial Output Cal Adjusted (YoY)		3.3%	3.1%
07:00	HUF Core Consumer Price Index (YoY)			2.5%
07:00	HUF Consumer Price Index (YoY)			2%
07:00	CZK Foreign Trade Balance (MoM)			18B
07:00	EUR Foreign Trade Balance			€140.8M
08:00	EUR Retail Sales n.s.a (YoY)			-0.6%
08:00	EUR Retail Sales s.a. (MoM)		0.1%	0.4%
08:00	CZK FX Reserves			€121.74B
08:30	SEK Consumer Price Index (YoY)			1.9%
08:30	SEK Consumer Price Index (MoM)			0.3%
n/a	EUR 30-y Bond Auction			1.12%
09:30	ZAR Business Confidence Index			97.6
n/a	GBP 10-y Bond Auction			1.6%
10:00	EUR Unemployment Rate			8.1%
10:00	EUR Trade Balance			€-217.5M
11:00	USD MBA Mortgage Applications			-2.5%
11:30	INR M3 Money Supply			10.5%
12:30	USD Producer Price Index (MoM)		0.2%	0.3%
12:30	USD Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM)		0.2%	0.3%
12:30	USD Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)		2.4%	2.7%
12:30	USD Producer Price Index (YoY)		2.8%	3.0%
12:30	CAD Building Permits (MoM)		2.0%	-2.6%
14:00	USD Wholesale Inventories		0.5%	0.5%
14:00	MXN Core Inflation			0.33%
14:00	MXN Headline Inflation			0.32%
14:00	MXN 12-Month Inflation			5.04%
14:30	USD EIA Crude Oil Stocks change		-0.719M	6.218M
17:01	USD 10-Year Note Auction			2.795%
17:15	USD FOMC Member Bostic speech
21:00	NZD RBNZ Rate Statement
21:00	NZD RBNZ Interest Rate Decision		1.75%	1.75%
21:00	NZD Monetary Policy Statement
22:00	NZD RBNZ Press Conference
23:01	GBP RICS Housing Price Balance		-1%	0%
23:50	JPY Bank lending (YoY)		1.9%	2.0%
23:50	JPY BOJ Summary of Opinions
23:50	JPY Foreign investment in Japan stocks			¥480.4B
23:50	JPY Foreign bond investment			¥950.3B
23:50	JPY Current Account n.s.a.		¥3,009.2B	¥2,076.0B
23:50	JPY Trade Balance - BOP Basis		¥486.2B	¥188.7B
Thursday, May 10
24h	EUR Ascension Day
24h	IDR Ascension Day
24h	DKK Ascension Day
24h	EUR Ascension Day
24h	EUR Ascension Day
24h	EUR Ascension Day
24h	ISK Ascension Day
24h	EUR Ascension Day
24h	CHF Ascension Day
24h	NOK Ascension Day
24h	SEK Ascension Day
24h	EUR Ascension Day
01:10	NZD RBNZ Governor Orr Speech
01:30	CNY Producer Price Index (YoY)		3.5%	3.1%
01:30	CNY Consumer Price Index (MoM)		-0.1%	-1.1%
01:30	CNY Consumer Price Index (YoY)		1.9%	2.1%
02:00	CNY M2 Money Supply (YoY)		8.5%	8.2%
02:00	CNY New Loans		1,100B	1,120B
02:00	CNY FDI - Foreign Direct Investment (YTD) (YoY)			0.5%
03:00	KRW Money Supply Growth			6.8%
05:00	JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook		49.9	49.6
05:00	JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Current		49.2	48.9
07:00	HUF Trade Balance			€841M
07:00	CZK Unemployment Rate			3.5%
07:00	RON Trade Balance			€-0.883B
07:00	EUR Industrial Output (YoY)			1.1%
08:00	EUR Industrial Output s.a. (MoM)		0.4%	-0.5%
08:00	EUR Industrial Output w.d.a (YoY)		2.4%	2.5%
08:00	EUR Economic Bulletin
08:30	GBP Industrial Production (YoY)		3.1%	2.2%
08:30	GBP Industrial Production (MoM)		0.2%	0.1%
08:30	GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM)		-0.2%	-0.2%
08:30	GBP Manufacturing Production (YoY)		2.9%	2.5%
08:30	GBP Goods Trade Balance		£-11.25B	£-10.20B
08:30	GBP Total Trade Balance			£-0.965B
08:30	GBP Trade Balance; non-EU		£-3.34B	£-2.24B
08:30	HKD Gross Domestic Product (YoY)			3.4%
08:30	HKD Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)			0.8%
09:00	EUR Industrial Production (YoY)			-2%
09:00	EUR Consumer Price Index - Harmonized (YoY)			0.2%
09:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)			-0.2%
09:00	EUR Unemployment Rate (MoM)			20.6%
10:00	EUR Global Trade Balance			€-3.623B
10:00	EUR HICP (MoM)			0.4%
10:00	EUR HICP (YoY)			0.5%
10:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (MoM)			0.3%
10:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)			0.2%
11:00	ZAR Manufacturing Production Index (YoY)			0.6%
11:00	GBP BoE Asset Purchase Facility		£435B	£435B
11:00	GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision		0.5%	0.5%
11:00	GBP Monetary Policy Summary
11:00	GBP Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report
11:00	GBP BOE MPC Vote Unchanged		7	7
11:00	GBP BOE MPC Vote Cut		0	0
11:00	GBP BOE MPC Vote Hike		2	2
11:00	GBP Bank of England Minutes
11:30	GBP BOE's Governor Carney speech
n/a	GBP NIESR GDP Estimate (3M)		0.3%	0.2%
12:30	USD Continuing Jobless Claims		1.778M	1.756M
12:30	USD Initial Jobless Claims		218K	211K
12:30	USD Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM)		250.684	249.554
12:30	USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM)		0.2%	0.2%
12:30	USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY)		2.2%	2.1%
12:30	USD Consumer Price Index (YoY)		2.5%	2.4%
12:30	USD Consumer Price Index (MoM)		0.3%	-0.1%
12:30	USD Consumer Price Index Core s.a		256.899	256.200
12:30	CAD New Housing Price Index (YoY)			2.6%
12:30	CAD New Housing Price Index (MoM)		0.0%	-0.2%
13:00	BRL IPCA Inflation			0.09%
13:00	RUB Central Bank Reserves $			$460.4B
14:30	USD EIA Natural Gas Storage change		81B	62B
14:30	CAD BoC Review
15:00	INR Trade Deficit Government
17:00	USD 30-Year Bond Auction			3.044%
18:00	USD Monthly Budget Statement		$181.5B	$-209.0B
22:00	PEN Interest rate decision
22:30	NZD Business NZ PMI			52.2
22:45	NZD Food Price Index (MoM)			1%
23:01	EUR Consumer Confidence			108.1
23:50	JPY Money Supply M2+CD (YoY)		3.3%	3.2%
Friday, May 11
01:30	AUD Home Loans		0.1%	-0.2%
01:30	AUD Investment Lending for Homes			0.5%
05:00	JPY Vehicle Production (YoY)			-0.1%
06:00	DKK Inflation (HICP) (YoY)			0.4%
06:00	DKK Consumer Price Index (YoY)			0.5%
06:00	RON Industrial Production (MoM)			-0.7%
06:00	RON Consumer Price Index			5%
06:00	JPY Machine Tool Orders (YoY)			28.1%
06:00	NOK Gross Domestic Product Growth Mainland			0.6%
06:00	NOK Gross Domestic Product Growth			-0.3%
07:00	EUR HICP (YoY)		1.1%	1.1%
07:00	EUR HICP (MoM)		0.8%	1.2%
07:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)		1.1%	1.2%
07:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (MoM)			0.1%
10:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)			0.7%
10:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (MoM)			1.9%
11:30	INR Manufacturing Output			8.7%
11:30	INR Industrial Output			7.1%
11:30	INR Cumulative Industrial Output			4.3%
11:30	INR FX Reserves, USD
12:00	BRL Retail Sales (MoM)			-0.2%
12:30	USD Export Price Index (YoY)		3.6%	3.4%
12:30	USD Export Price Index (MoM)		0.3%	0.3%
12:30	USD Import Price Index (YoY)		3.3%	3.6%
12:30	USD Import Price Index (MoM)		0.5%	0.0%
12:30	USD Fed's Bullard speech
12:30	CAD Participation rate		65.5%	65.5%
12:30	CAD Net Change in Employment		36.1K	32.3K
12:30	CAD Unemployment Rate		5.8%	5.8%
13:00	CAD BoC Wilkins Speech
13:15	EUR ECB President Draghi's Speech
14:00	USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index		99.5	98.8
14:00	MXN Industrial Output (YoY)			0.7%
14:00	MXN Industrial Output (MoM)			0.4%
15:00	COP Retail Sales (YoY)			5%
15:00	COP Trade Balance			$-548.4M
15:00	COP Industrial ouput (YoY)			1.5%
17:00	USD Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count			834
19:30	USD CFTC USD NC net positions			$229.2K
19:30	USD CFTC Gold NC net positions			$106.8K
19:30	USD CFTC Oil NC net positions			690.7K
19:30	GBP CFTC GBP NC net positions			£26.4K
19:30	JPY CFTC JPY NC net positions			¥-1.4K
19:30	EUR CFTC EUR NC net positions			€120.6K
19:30	AUD CFTC AUD NC net positions			$-5.7K

Author

FXStreet Team

FXStreet

Composed of a group of economic journalists and FX experts, the FXStreet content team produces and oversees all content published on FXStreet. It provides a purely journalistic approach to the Forex market.

GBP/USD off highs, back to 1.3620

GBP/USD remains slightly on the defensive at the end of the week, receding to the low 1.3600s after hitting fresh tops past 1.3670 earlier in the day. Cable’s correction comes after two daily gains in a row and amid a tepid advance in the Greenback, while poor UK data also accompany the downside.

EUR/USD treads water below 1.1700

EUR/USD now trades with modest losses around 1.1670 following another unsuccessful atempt to advance past 1.1700 the figure in a convincing fashion. The pair’s decline follows a maginal rebound in the US Dollar as market participants continue to assess recent US data as well as developments from the US bond market.

Gold trims gains, recedes to the sub-$4,600 area

Gold rapidly leaves behind Thursday’s inconclusive price action and advances markedly on Friday, briefly surpassing the $4,600 mark per troy ounce to hit three-month peaks. Meanwhile, the precious metal’s solid performance comes despite marginal gains in the buck coupled with another day of rising US Treasury yields across the curve.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP bulls accelerate rally amid rising ETF inflows

The cryptocurrency market remains bullish on Friday, led by Bitcoin’s surge above $77,000. Altcoins, including Ethereum and Ripple, mirror BTC’s positive outlook, trading near $2,400 and $1.35, respectively.

Week ahead – Fed’s Jackson Hole and Nvidia earnings to dictate markets

Kevin Warsh to make his Jackson Hole debut amid confusing messaging. But a major hawkish surprise unlikely after bond market intervention. Nvidia earnings to also determine market direction as stock rally cools.

$20 billion offered, $2 billion taken: Why Treasury doubled its buyback cap

The US Treasury moved off its own calendar on Wednesday, and that is the part worth sitting with. At 12:32 GMT, the department said it would at least double the size of liquidity support buyback operations in the 10-year to 20-year and 20-year to 30-year sectors, lifting the maximum from $2 billion per operation to at least $4 billion, effective September 9 and running to November 4.