Forex Today: Oil and US dollar cheer Iran deal fallout, focus shifts to US PPI


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The Japanese Yen was the weakest in Asia across the fx board today, as broad-based US dollar strength remained the underlying theme following Trump’s decision to pull out the US from Iran’s nuclear deal. Both crude benchmarks also benefited from the Iran deal fallout, having helped limit the downside in the commodity currencies. The Kiwi traded cautiously ahead of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) monetary policy decision due tomorrow.

The Asian equity markets traded mostly mixed, with the Japanese stocks the main laggard amid M & A news while markets digest the responses from Japan and China on the Trump’s decision.

Main topics in Asia

Mnuchin: Sanctions are effectively going in place 'immediately'

The US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin spoke about Iran sanctions following the US' withdrawal from the Iranian deal earlier.

Saudi energy minister: Saudi Arabia/OPEC will mitigate supply shocks

A Saudi energy minister spoke today to make a statement about energy prices and oil fluctuations.

Japanese real wages rise the first time in four months in March

The inflation-adjusted real wages in Japan rose for the first time in four months in March. boosting odds of higher consumer spending in coming months. 

Brent crude oil futures rise to $76.74 - highest since Nov. 2014

Brent oil rose to $76.74 in Asia - the highest level since November 2014 as investors anticipate a significant tightening of the oil markets in the second half of this year, courtesy of Iran deal fallout. 

RBNZ: Format of monetary policy statement has been updated

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand came out with a statement on Wednesday, announcing that the central bank has revised the format of the monetary policy statement.

Japan’s Suga: The US withdrawal from Iran deal is very regrettable

Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga was on the wires last minutes, via Reuters, noting that the US withdrawal from Iran deal is very regrettable.

Key Focus ahead

Today macro calendar is absolutely quiet for Europe, with nothing significant slated for release while markets will continue to track the USD dynamics and developments surrounding the Italian politics. Moving, the NA session offers the Canadian building permits and US PPI data ahead of the US Energy Information Administration (US) weekly crude inventories data release, which will keep the CAD and oil traders on the edge.

EUR/USD: Bearish setup intact, Italy repeat election is a risk to the EUR

The EUR/USD pair looks oversold as per the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) and a minor corrective rally looks overdue if we take into account a bullish RSI divergence seen in the 4-hour chart.

GBP/USD clattering against the bottom as Thursday's BoE action looms

The Sterling has fallen against the resurgent US Dollar for three consecutive trading weeks, tumbling almost 6%. This week's focus has turned to Super Thursday, with the BoE introducing their latest rate call and a speech from the BoE's head, Mark Carney.

More Volatility on the Way!!

Oil markets had an extremely volatile session, and predictably volumes soared causing clearing delays. So, what’s next? More volatility of course!!

BoE to keep rates unchanged - Reuters Poll

The Bank of England (BoE) is now expected to keep rates unchanged at their next meeting, according to poll results from Reuters.

GMT
Event
Vol.
Actual
Consensus
Previous
Tuesday, May 08
24h
 
 
24h
 
 
24h
 
 
23:01
-4.2%
-0.8%
1.4%
23:50
$1,256.0B
 
$1,268.3B
Wednesday, May 09
00:00
2.1%
1.1%
1.0% Revised from 1.3%
24h
 
 
04:30
-0.1%
 
-0.9% Revised from -0.2%
05:00
116.4
116.4
116.0 Revised from 116.1
05:00
105.0
105.2
105.9 Revised from 106.0
06:00
 
 
13.5B
06:00
 
 
2.2%
06:00
 
 
0.3%
06:00
 
 
0.2%
06:00
 
 
1.2%
06:00
 
 
6.4%
06:45
 
0.4%
1.2%
07:00
 
3.3%
3.1%
07:00
 
 
2.5%
07:00
 
 
2%
07:00
 
 
18B
07:00
 
 
€140.8M
08:00
 
 
-0.6%
08:00
 
0.1%
0.4%
08:00
 
 
€121.74B
08:30
 
 
1.9%
08:30
 
 
0.3%
n/a
 
 
1.12%
09:30
 
 
97.6
n/a
 
 
1.6%
10:00
 
 
8.1%
10:00
 
 
€-217.5M
11:00
 
 
-2.5%
11:30
 
 
10.5%
12:30
 
0.2%
0.3%
12:30
 
0.2%
0.3%
12:30
 
2.4%
2.7%
12:30
 
2.8%
3.0%
12:30
 
2.0%
-2.6%
14:00
 
0.5%
0.5%
14:00
 
 
0.33%
14:00
 
 
0.32%
14:00
 
 
5.04%
14:30
 
-0.719M
6.218M
17:01
 
 
2.795%
17:15
 
 
21:00
 
 
21:00
 
1.75%
1.75%
21:00
 
 
22:00
 
 
23:01
 
-1%
0%
23:50
 
1.9%
2.0%
23:50
 
 
23:50
 
 
¥480.4B
23:50
 
 
¥950.3B
23:50
 
¥3,009.2B
¥2,076.0B
23:50
 
¥486.2B
¥188.7B
Thursday, May 10
24h
 
 
24h
 
 
24h
 
 
24h
 
 
24h
 
 
24h
 
 
24h
 
 
24h
 
 
24h
 
 
24h
 
 
24h
 
 
24h
 
 
01:10
 
 
01:30
 
3.5%
3.1%
01:30
 
-0.1%
-1.1%
01:30
 
1.9%
2.1%
02:00
 
8.5%
8.2%
02:00
 
1,100B
1,120B
02:00
 
 
0.5%
03:00
 
 
6.8%
05:00
 
49.9
49.6
05:00
 
49.2
48.9
07:00
 
 
€841M
07:00
 
 
3.5%
07:00
 
 
€-0.883B
07:00
 
 
1.1%
08:00
 
0.4%
-0.5%
08:00
 
2.4%
2.5%
08:00
 
 
08:30
 
3.1%
2.2%
08:30
 
0.2%
0.1%
08:30
 
-0.2%
-0.2%
08:30
 
2.9%
2.5%
08:30
 
£-11.25B
£-10.20B
08:30
 
 
£-0.965B
08:30
 
£-3.34B
£-2.24B
08:30
 
 
3.4%
08:30
 
 
0.8%
09:00
 
 
-2%
09:00
 
 
0.2%
09:00
 
 
-0.2%
09:00
 
 
20.6%
10:00
 
 
€-3.623B
10:00
 
 
0.4%
10:00
 
 
0.5%
10:00
 
 
0.3%
10:00
 
 
0.2%
11:00
 
 
0.6%
11:00
 
£435B
£435B
11:00
 
0.5%
0.5%
11:00
 
 
11:00
 
 
11:00
 
7
7
11:00
 
0
0
11:00
 
2
2
11:00
 
 
11:30
 
 
n/a
 
0.3%
0.2%
12:30
 
1.778M
1.756M
12:30
 
218K
211K
12:30
 
250.684
249.554
12:30
 
0.2%
0.2%
12:30
 
2.2%
2.1%
12:30
 
2.5%
2.4%
12:30
 
0.3%
-0.1%
12:30
 
256.899
256.200
12:30
 
 
2.6%
12:30
 
0.0%
-0.2%
13:00
 
 
0.09%
13:00
 
 
$460.4B
14:30
 
81B
62B
14:30
 
 
15:00
 
 
17:00
 
 
3.044%
18:00
 
$181.5B
$-209.0B
22:00
 
 
22:30
 
 
52.2
22:45
 
 
1%
23:01
 
 
108.1
23:50
 
3.3%
3.2%
Friday, May 11
01:30
 
0.1%
-0.2%
01:30
 
 
0.5%
05:00
 
 
-0.1%
06:00
 
 
0.4%
06:00
 
 
0.5%
06:00
 
 
-0.7%
06:00
 
 
5%
06:00
 
 
28.1%
06:00
 
 
0.6%
06:00
 
 
-0.3%
07:00
 
1.1%
1.1%
07:00
 
0.8%
1.2%
07:00
 
1.1%
1.2%
07:00
 
 
0.1%
10:00
 
 
0.7%
10:00
 
 
1.9%
11:30
 
 
8.7%
11:30
 
 
7.1%
11:30
 
 
4.3%
11:30
 
 
12:00
 
 
-0.2%
12:30
 
3.6%
3.4%
12:30
 
0.3%
0.3%
12:30
 
3.3%
3.6%
12:30
 
0.5%
0.0%
12:30
 
 
12:30
 
65.5%
65.5%
12:30
 
36.1K
32.3K
12:30
 
5.8%
5.8%
13:00
 
 
13:15
 
 
14:00
 
99.5
98.8
14:00
 
 
0.7%
14:00
 
 
0.4%
15:00
 
 
5%
15:00
 
 
$-548.4M
15:00
 
 
1.5%
17:00
 
 
834
19:30
 
 
$229.2K
19:30
 
 
$106.8K
19:30
 
 
690.7K
19:30
 
 
£26.4K
19:30
 
 
¥-1.4K
19:30
 
 
€120.6K
19:30
 
 
$-5.7K

 

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