Forex Today: GBP outperforms in Asia, IFO, US durable goods, ECB Draghi - Key

Dhwani Mehta FXStreet

Another great start for the British currency this Monday, replicating Friday’s outperformance in Asia, as risk-off returned to the markets amid oil-price recovery and renewed hopes of a deal to be reached between the UK PM May and DUP, when the DUP leader Foster meets Theresa May later in the European morning.

The Antipodeans too remained better bid amid broad based US dollar softness, although gains were limited by renewed demand for the US yields, which dampened the demand for the Emerging Market currencies as alternative higher-yielding assets.

Looking ahead, we have plenty of risk events on the cards this week, with a mix of central banking speech from across the globe and key macro news in terms of the GDP figures from the US and UK. The immediate focus, however, now remains on the German IFO surveys, US durable goods data and ECB President Draghi’s speech slated for release in the day ahead.

Main topics in Asia

BoJ 'Summary of Opinions'

The BoJ has just released the Summary of Opinions' for the June 15th and 16th meeting. Within them, the BoJ states that the Japan's economy has been turning toward a moderate expansion.

Brexit: I would be prepared “to walk away” if given a “punishment deal” - Brexit Secretary David Davis

Brexit Secretary David Davis, while talking to BBC’s Andrew Marr on Sunday said, “I would be prepared "to walk away" if the UK was given a "punishment deal”. We have to plan for that."

Italy to bail out two more banks after ECB warning

Italy’s government will be bailing out Banca Popolare di Vicenza and Veneto Banca at a cost of EUR 5.2 billion.

Goldman Sachs assesses a 1/4 chance of US recession over the next two years

Goldman Sachs’ economists out with a latest note on Monday, assessing the risk of a recession for the US.

Key Focus ahead

Germany: IFO expectations to decline to 106.1 in June – Danske Bank

In the euro area, the German Ifo expectation is due for release today and analysts at Danske Bank expect this figure to decline to 106.1 in June.

DUP leader Foster to meet with UK PM May Monday morning

Sky News correspondent, as cited by Reuters, noted that the Democratic Unionist Party’s (DUP) leader Arlene Foster is arriving in London this Monday morning to meet the UK PM May.

Eurozone: German IFO and ECB conference in focus - TDS

Analysts at TDS point out that German IFO data and the start of ECB’s Sintra conference will be the most watched event for today’s economic calendar as far as Eurozone is concerned.

The week ahead: United States - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura explained that for the week ahead in the US, the relevant elements of the May PPI and CPI inflation reports point to subdued core PCE inflation in May.

The week ahead: Europe - Nomura

"German Ifo (Monday): We expect the German Ifo business climate index to increase to 115.2 in June from 114.6 in May.”

GMT	Event	Actual	Consensus	Previous
Sunday, Jun 25
24h	IDR Hari Raya Idul Fitri
24h	SGD Hari Raya Puasa
23:50	JPY BOJ Summary of Opinions
23:50	JPY Corporate Service Price (YoY)	0.7%		0.7%
Monday, Jun 26
24h	TRY Ramazan Feast
24h	IDR Hari Raya Idul Fitri
24h	COP Sacred Heart
24h	INR Idul Fitr
24h	SGD Hari Raya Puasa
07:00	EUR Producer Price Index (YoY)	4.1%		5.0%
07:00	EUR Export Prices (YoY)	4.6%		5.9%
07:00	EUR Import Prices (YoY)	9.7%		12.9%
08:00	EUR IFO - Expectations		106.4	106.5
08:00	EUR IFO - Business Climate		114.4	114.6
08:00	EUR IFO - Current Assessment		123.3	123.2
08:00	PLN Unemployment (MoM)		7.4%	7.7%
08:30	GBP BBA Mortgage Approvals		40.30K	40.75K
10:00	EUR German Buba Monthly Report
12:30	USD Chicago Fed National Activity Index		0.20	0.49
12:30	USD Durable Goods Orders		-0.6%	-0.8% Revised from -0.7%
12:30	USD Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation		0.5%	-0.5% Revised from -0.4%
13:00	MXN Jobless Rate s.a			3.6%
13:00	MXN Jobless Rate		3.6%	3.5%
14:00	USD Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index		16.0	17.2
15:30	USD 3-Month Bill Auction			1.01%
15:30	USD 6-Month Bill Auction			1.112%
17:00	USD 2-Year Note Auction			1.316%
17:30	EUR ECB President Draghi's Speech
21:00	KRW Consumer Sentiment Index			108
21:45	NZD Trade Balance (MoM)		$420M	$572M
21:45	NZD Exports		$4.93B	$4.75B
21:45	NZD Trade Balance (YoY)		$-3.398B	$-3.480B
21:45	NZD Imports		$4.48B	$4.17B
Tuesday, Jun 27
24h	TRY Ramazan Feast
24h	IDR Cuti Bersama
06:00	EUR Industrial Confidence			8
06:00	EUR Consumer Confidence			24.1
07:00	DKK Retail Sales (YoY)			-0.8%
07:30	SEK Producer Price Index (MoM)			-0.3%
07:30	SEK Producer Price Index (YoY)			7.2%
07:30	SEK Trade Balance (MoM)			-2.6B
08:00	EUR Consumer Confidence			105.4
08:00	EUR Business Confidence		106.6	106.9
08:00	EUR ECB President Draghi's Speech
08:30	AUD RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speech
n/a	EUR 10-y Bond Auction			2.15%
n/a	EUR 5-y Bond Auction			0.88%
09:30	GBP Financial Stability Report
10:00	GBP BOE's Governor Carney speech
10:00	GBP CBI Distributive Trades Survey - Realized (MoM)		0%	2%
12:55	USD Redbook index (MoM)			0.7%
12:55	USD Redbook index (YoY)			2.8%
13:00	USD S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (YoY)		5.9%	5.9%
13:00	MXN Trade Balance s/a, $			$-0.297B
13:00	MXN Trade Balance, $			$0.617B
13:30	BRL Current Account			$1,200B
n/a	USD Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index			1
15:15	USD FOMC Member Harker Speech
15:30	USD 4-Week Bill Auction			0.85%
17:00	USD 5-Year Note Auction			1.831%
17:00	USD Fed's Yellen Speech
20:30	USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock			-2.72M
21:30	USD FOMC Member Kashkari Speech
Wednesday, Jun 28
24h	TRY Ramazan Feast
24h	IDR Cuti Bersama
06:00	EUR Import Price Index (YoY)			6.1%
06:00	EUR Import Price Index (MoM)		-0.5%	-0.1%
06:00	CHF UBS Consumption Indicator			1.48
06:45	EUR Consumer Confidence		103	102
07:00	EUR Retail Sales (YoY)			1.8%
07:00	HUF Unemployment Rate (3M)			4.6%
08:00	EUR Purchasing Manager Index			58
08:00	EUR Private loans (YoY)			2.4%
08:00	EUR M3 Money Supply (3m)			5%
08:00	EUR M3 Money Supply (YoY)		5.0%	4.9%
08:00	CHF ZEW Survey - Expectations			30.8
09:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (MoM)			-0.1%
09:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (MoM)			-0.2%
09:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY)			1.6%
09:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)		0.0%	1.4%
10:00	EUR Retail Sales (MoM)			-0.6%
10:00	EUR Retail Sales (YoY)		1.4%	1.6%
11:00	USD MBA Mortgage Applications			0.6%
12:30	USD Wholesale Inventories			-0.5%
12:30	USD Goods Trade Balance			$-68B
14:00	USD Pending Home Sales (YoY)			-3.3%
14:00	USD Pending Home Sales (MoM)		0.6%	-1.3%
14:30	USD EIA Crude Oil Stocks change			-2.451M
15:00	USD Fed Monetary Policy Report
17:00	USD 7-Year Note Auction			2.06%
21:00	KRW BOK Manufacturing BSI			82
23:50	JPY Large Retailer's Sales			1.1%
23:50	JPY Retail Trade (YoY)		2.6%	3.2%
23:50	JPY Retail Trade s.a (MoM)			1.4%
Thursday, Jun 29
24h	IDR Cuti Bersama
24h	CLP Saint Peter and Saint Paul
01:00	NZD ANZ Activity Outlook			38.3%
01:00	NZD ANZ Business Confidence			14.9
01:00	AUD HIA New Home Sales (MoM)			0.8%
06:00	EUR Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey		10.4	10.4
06:00	GBP Nationwide Housing Prices s.a (MoM)			-0.2%
06:00	GBP Nationwide Housing Prices n.s.a (YoY)			2.1%
07:00	TRY Economic confidence index			100.5
07:00	DKK Industrial Outlook			-5
07:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)			1.9%
07:00	EUR HICP (YoY)		1.5%	2.0%
07:00	EUR HICP (MoM)			0%
07:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (MoM)			-0.1%
07:30	SEK Retail Sales (YoY)			4.5%
07:30	SEK Retail Sales (MoM)			1.3%
08:30	GBP Net Lending to Individuals (MoM)			£4.3B
08:30	GBP Consumer Credit		£1.450B	£1.525B
08:30	GBP Mortgage Approvals		64.000K	64.645K
08:30	GBP M4 Money Supply (YoY)			8.2%
08:30	GBP M4 Money Supply (MoM)			1.2%
08:30	EUR Business Confidence			2
08:30	EUR Consumer Confidence			0.1
09:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)			1.86%
09:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (MoM)			-0.09%
09:00	EUR Consumer Confidence		-1.3	-1.3
09:30	ZAR Producer Price Index (YoY)			4.6%
09:30	ZAR Producer Price Index (MoM)			0.3%
10:00	EUR Economic Sentiment Indicator		109.5	109.2
10:00	EUR Business Climate		1.0	0.9
10:00	EUR Industrial Confidence		2.8	2.8
10:00	EUR Services Sentiment		13.3	13.0
12:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)		1.4%	1.5%
12:00	EUR Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)		1.3%	1.4%
12:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (MoM)		0.0%	-0.2%
12:00	EUR Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (MoM)		0.0%	-0.2%
12:00	BRL Inflation Index/IGP-M			-0.93%
12:30	USD Initial Jobless Claims			241K
12:30	USD Continuing Jobless Claims			1.944M
12:30	USD Gross Domestic Product Price Index			2.2%
12:30	USD Gross Domestic Product Annualized		1.2%	1.2%
12:30	USD Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ)			2.4%
12:30	USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ)			2.1%
n/a	RUB Central Bank Reserves $			$406.4B
14:30	USD EIA Natural Gas Storage change			61B
22:45	NZD Building Permits s.a. (MoM)			-7.6%
23:01	GBP Gfk Consumer Confidence		-7	-5
23:30	JPY Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY)		0.2%	0.1%
23:30	JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY)			0.2%
23:30	JPY Tokyo CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY)			0%
23:30	JPY National Consumer Price Index (YoY)			0.4%
23:30	JPY National CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY)		0.4%	0.3%
23:30	JPY National CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY)			0%
23:30	JPY Jobs/applicants ratio			1.48
23:30	JPY Unemployment Rate		2.8%	2.8%
23:30	JPY Overall Household Spending (YoY)		-0.6%	-1.4%
23:50	JPY Industrial Production (MoM)		-3.2%	4.0%
23:50	JPY Industrial Production (YoY)			5.7%
Friday, Jun 30
24h	IDR Cuti Bersama
00:00	ZAR Trade Balance (in Rands)			5.1B
01:00	CNY Non-manufacturing PMI			54.5
01:00	CNY NBS Manufacturing PMI		51.0	51.2
01:30	AUD Private Sector Credit (YoY)			4.9%
01:30	AUD Private Sector Credit (MoM)			0.4%
05:00	JPY Construction Orders (YoY)			-0.2%
05:00	JPY Housing Starts (YoY)		-1.5%	1.9%
05:00	JPY Annualized Housing Starts			1.004M
06:00	EUR Retail Sales (YoY)		3.5%	-0.9%
06:00	EUR Retail Sales (MoM)		0.4%	-0.2%
06:45	EUR Producer Prices (MoM)			-0.4%
06:45	EUR Consumer Spending (MoM)			0.5%
06:45	EUR Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (YoY)		0.8%	0.9%
07:00	TRY Trade Balance			-4.95B
07:00	DKK Gross Domestic Product - Revised (YoY)			2.3%
07:00	DKK Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)			0.6%
07:00	CZK Gross Domestic Product (YoY)			2.9%
07:00	CHF KOF Leading Indicator			101.6
07:55	EUR Unemployment Change		-10K	-9K
07:55	EUR Unemployment Rate s.a.		5.7%	5.7%
08:00	EUR Public Deficit/GDP			2.3%
08:00	EUR Current Account Balance			€1.32B
08:30	GBP Gross Domestic Product (YoY)		2%	2%
08:30	GBP Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)		0.2%	0.2%
08:30	GBP Total Business Investment (YoY)			0.8%
08:30	GBP Total Business Investment (QoQ)			0.6%
08:30	GBP Index of Services (3M/3M)			0.2%
08:30	GBP Current Account		£-16.250B	£-12.088B
08:30	HKD Retail Sales			0.1%
09:00	EUR Retail Sales (YoY)			-1%
09:00	EUR Producer Price Index (YoY)			7.9%
09:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)		1.3%	1.4%
09:00	EUR Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY)		1%	1%
n/a	INR FX Reserves, USD			$381.96B
12:00	INR Federal Fiscal Deficit, INR			5,350.68B
12:30	USD Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)			0.2%
12:30	USD Personal Income (MoM)		0.3%	0.4%
12:30	USD Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)			1.7%
12:30	USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditure - Price Index (MoM)		0.1%	0.2%
12:30	USD Personal Spending			0.4%
12:30	USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditure - Price Index (YoY)			1.5%
12:30	CAD Industrial Product Price (MoM)			0.6%
12:30	CAD Raw Material Price Index			1.6%
12:30	CAD Gross Domestic Product (MoM)			0.5%
13:45	USD Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index		58.0	59.4
14:00	USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index		94.5	94.5
17:00	USD Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count			758
19:30	USD CFTC USD NC net positions			$8.6K
19:30	USD CFTC Gold NC net positions			$150.7K
19:30	USD CFTC Oil NC net positions			328.8K
19:30	GBP CFTC GBP NC net positions			£-37.6K
19:30	JPY CFTC JPY NC net positions			¥-50K
19:30	EUR CFTC EUR NC net positions			€44.9K
19:30	AUD CFTC AUD NC net positions			$15K
Saturday, Jul 01
24h	HKD Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Establishment Day
24h	CAD Canada Day

Author

Dhwani Mehta

FXStreet

Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.

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