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Forex Today: GBP hit by Trump, Aussie ignores China trade, a light session ahead

Dhwani Mehta FXStreet

Forex today saw limited action in Asia, with most majors sticking to tight trading ranges, despite upbeat Chinese trade figures. Meanwhile, the US dollar retained its bullish bias induced by upbeat remarks from the Fed Chief Powell delivered a day before. The pound emerged the main laggard, weighed down by Trump’s comments, favoring a hard-Brexit while the Yen remained on the back foot amid a risk-on rally in the Japanese stocks. The Antipodeans showed little reaction to widening Chinese trade surplus, as a drop in the Chinese copper and iron-ore imports kept a check on the upside. The Swiss franc kept losses above the 1.0000 mark versus its US counterpart heading into Swiss PPI release.

Main topics in Asia

Trump wants a hard Brexit - UK Press

President Trump has been vocal of his criticism of the EU recently and lamented to The Sun that PM May didn't take his advice on Brexit.

US accuses North Korea of UN sanctions violations - Reuters

As reported by Reuters, the US has accused North Korea of circumventing UN sanctions by using at-sea cargo switching.

PBOC to inject 188.5bn Yuan via 1 year Medium-term lending facility

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) issued a statement on Friday, announcing that it injected 188.5bn Yuan via 1-year Medium-term lending facility (MLF) at 3.3 percent.

China Customs: Downward risks due to some country's unilateralism, protectionism

Comments from China's Customs are crossing the wires via Reuters …

China’s June trade balance (CNY): Surplus expands to 261.90 bn, a big beat

China's trade balance for June, in Yuan terms, came in at CNY 261.90bn versus CNY 165.61bn expected and CNY 156.51bn last.

China’s June trade data (USD): Surplus expands as imports drop to 14.1%

The China customs published trade balance for June in USD terms, reporting a bigger-than-expected trade surplus as imports decline by a big margin.

Key Focus ahead

Friday’s EUR macro calendar is a fairly light one, with nothing of note from the Euroland or the UK, except for the Bank of England (BOE) policymaker Cunliffe’s speech scheduled at 1100 GMT. In absence of fresh fundamental catalysts in Europe, the risk trends and US dollar price-action will continue to drive the fx markets amid ongoing US-China trade tensions.

Meanwhile, the NA session may offer some fresh trading impetus, with the US prelim UoM consumer sentiment and import prices data. However, the US macro news may play a second fiddle to the Fed’s semi-annual monetary policy report due to be published at 1500 GMT.

EUR/USD holds 20-day MA support despite upbeat Powell

The EUR/USD could see positive action on the last trading day of the week, having defended the key 20-day moving average (MA) support on Thursday.

GBP/USD continues to suffer at the hands of Brexit-minded bears

Friday is a thin showing on the economic calendar for both the GBP and the USD, with Friday's London session seeing a mid-tier speech from the Bank of England's (BoE) MPC Member Cunliffe at 11:00 GMT.

Focus is on Monetary Policy Report for the greenback - TDS

Analysts at TD Securities explained that the focus for the day ahead, in terms of the greenback, will fall on the Monetary Policy Report released at 11 am EDT.

US dollar: Risks further upside as valuation aren’t stretched – HSBC

In its latest client note, analysts at HSBC forecasts the US dollar rally to continue on the back of Fed’s interest rate outlook for this year.

GMT	Event	Actual	Consensus	Previous
Thursday, Jul 12
24h	EUR Eurogroup meeting
Friday, Jul 13
24h	EUR EcoFin Meeting
03:07	CNY Imports (YoY) CNY	6.0%	10.5%	15.6%
03:08	CNY Imports (YoY)	14.1%	20.8%	26.0%
03:08	CNY Exports (YoY)	11.3%	10.0%	12.6%
03:10	CNY Trade Balance CNY	261.900B	165.647B	156.510B
04:30	JPY Capacity Utilization	-2.1%	-1.2%	1.8%
04:30	JPY Industrial Production (YoY)	4.2%	6.0%	4.2%
04:30	JPY Industrial Production (MoM)	-0.2%	-0.2%	-0.2%
04:30	EUR Retail Sales (YoY)	4.2%		2.6%
06:00	EUR Wholesale Price Index (YoY)			2.9%
06:00	EUR Wholesale Price Index (MoM)		0.4%	0.8%
06:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product (YoY)			1.8%
06:00	EUR Current Account			€-0.9B
06:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)			1%
06:00	NOK Trade Balance			16.3B
06:30	INR WPI Inflation			4.43%
06:45	EUR Nonfarm Payrolls (QoQ)			0.2%
07:00	EUR HICP (YoY)		2.3%	2.3%
07:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)		2.3%	2.1%
07:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (MoM)		0.2%	0.9%
07:00	EUR HICP (MoM)		0.3%	0.9%
07:00	EUR Headline Inflation (MoM)		0.2%	0.0%
07:00	EUR Core Inflation (MoM)		0.2%	0.0%
07:00	EUR Headline Inflation (YoY)		2.8%	2.6%
07:00	EUR Core Inflation (YoY)		3.2%	3.0%
07:15	CHF Producer and Import Prices (MoM)		0.2%	0.2%
07:15	CHF Producer and Import Prices (YoY)		3.2%	3.2%
11:00	GBP MPC Member Cunliffe Speech
11:30	INR FX Reserves, USD			$406.06B
12:00	PLN Current Account			€-21M
n/a	RUB Budget Fulfilment			1.2%
12:30	USD Export Price Index (MoM)		0.2%	0.6%
12:30	USD Import Price Index (YoY)		4.3%	4.3%
12:30	USD Import Price Index (MoM)		0.1%	0.6%
12:30	USD Export Price Index (YoY)		5.7%	4.9%
14:00	USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index		98.2	98.2
15:00	USD Fed Monetary Policy Report
15:00	COP Retail Sales (YoY)	5.9%		6.3%
15:00	COP Industrial ouput (YoY)	2.9%		10.5%
n/a	INR Trade Deficit Government		$14.50B	$14.62B
16:30	USD FOMC Member Bostic speech
17:00	USD Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count			863
19:30	USD CFTC Gold NC net positions			$78.3K
19:30	USD CFTC Oil NC net positions			656.7K
19:30	USD CFTC USD NC net positions			$168K
19:30	GBP CFTC GBP NC net positions			£-28.8K
19:30	JPY CFTC JPY NC net positions			¥-38.7K
19:30	EUR CFTC EUR NC net positions			€36.7K
19:30	AUD CFTC AUD NC net positions			$-39.2K
Saturday, Jul 14
24h	EUR Bastille Day
n/a	CNY M2 Money Supply (YoY)		8.3%	8.3%
n/a	CNY New Loans		1,600B	1,150B
Sunday, Jul 15
23:01	GBP Rightmove House Price Index (MoM)			0.4%
23:01	GBP Rightmove House Price Index (YoY)			1.6%
Monday, Jul 16
24h	CLP Our Lady of Mount Carmel
24h	JPY Marine Day
02:00	CNY Retail Sales (YoY)		9.0%	8.5%
02:00	CNY Industrial Production (YoY)		6.5%	6.8%
02:00	CNY Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (YoY)		6.0%	6.1%
02:00	CNY Gross Domestic Product (YoY)		6.7%	6.8%
02:00	CNY Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)		1.6%	1.4%
04:00	IDR Imports			28.12%
04:00	IDR Exports			12.47%
04:00	IDR Trade Balance			$-1.52B
n/a	USD Trump - Putin meeting
07:00	TRY 3mth quarterly jobless average			10.1%
08:00	EUR Trade Balance EU			€1.077B
08:00	EUR Global Trade Balance			€2.938B
08:00	CZK Current Account (MoM)			29.34B
08:00	EUR EU Norm Inflation (YoY)			2.7%
08:00	EUR EU Norm Inflation (MoM)			0%
09:00	TRY Budget Balance			2.7B
09:00	EUR Trade Balance n.s.a.			€16.7B
09:00	EUR Trade Balance s.a.			€18.1B
12:00	PLN Net Inflation			0.5%
12:30	USD NY Empire State Manufacturing Index		22.75	25.00
12:30	USD Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM)		0.4%	0.9%
12:30	USD Retail Sales control group			0.5%
12:30	USD Retail Sales (MoM)		0.6%	0.8%
12:30	CAD Canadian portfolio investment in foreign securities			$-0.65B
12:30	CAD Foreign portfolio investment in Canadian securities			$9.13B
13:00	RUB Industrial Output			3.7%
14:00	USD Business Inventories		0.4%	0.3%
15:30	USD 3-Month Bill Auction			1.945%
15:30	USD 6-Month Bill Auction			2.1%
16:00	PEN Gross Domestic Product
22:45	NZD Consumer Price Index (QoQ)			0.5%
22:45	NZD Consumer Price Index (YoY)			1.1%
Tuesday, Jul 17
00:30	AUD RBA Meeting's Minutes
01:30	CNY House Price Index			4.7%
02:00	CNY NBS Press Conference
07:00	TRY Industrial Production (YoY)			6.2%
08:00	EUR Industrial Orders s.a (MoM)			-1.3%
08:00	EUR Industrial Sales s.a. (MoM)			0.3%
08:00	EUR Industrial Orders n.s.a (YoY)			6.4%
08:00	EUR Industrial Sales n.s.a. (YoY)			4%
08:30	GBP Average Earnings excluding Bonus (3Mo/Yr)			2.8%
08:30	GBP Average Earnings including Bonus (3Mo/Yr)			2.5%
08:30	GBP Claimant Count Rate			2.5%
08:30	GBP Claimant Count Change			-7.7K
08:30	GBP ILO Unemployment Rate (3M)			4.2%
09:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)		1.4%	1.4%
09:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (MoM)		0.3%	0.3%
09:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (MoM)		0.3%	0.3%
09:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY)		1.5%	1.5%
09:30	GBP DCLG House Price Index (YoY)			3.9%
12:00	PLN Corporate Sector Wages			7%
12:30	CAD Manufacturing Shipments (MoM)		0.6%	-1.3%
12:55	USD Redbook index (MoM)			-0.2%
12:55	USD Redbook index (YoY)			5.2%
13:15	USD Industrial Production (MoM)		0.5%	-0.1%
13:15	USD Capacity Utilization		78.2%	77.9%
14:00	USD NAHB Housing Market Index		69	68
n/a	NZD GDT Price Index			-5%
15:30	USD 52-Week Bill auction			2.275%
15:30	USD 4-Week Bill Auction			1.85%
19:00	ARS Consumer Price Index (MoM)			1.9%
20:00	USD Total Net TIC Flows			$138.7B
20:00	USD Net Long-Term TIC Flows			$93.9B
20:30	USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock			-6.796M
Wednesday, Jul 18
24h	EUR EcoFin Meeting
06:00	DKK Consumer Confidence			10.6
07:00	EUR HICP (MoM)			0.1%
07:00	EUR HICP (YoY)			2.1%
08:00	ZAR Consumer Price Index (MoM)			0.2%
08:00	ZAR Consumer Price Index (YoY)			4.4%
08:30	GBP Retail Price Index (MoM)		0.4%	0.4%
08:30	GBP Retail Price Index (YoY)		3.4%	3.3%
08:30	GBP PPI Core Output (YoY) n.s.a			2.1%
08:30	GBP Producer Price Index - Input (MoM) n.s.a		1.6%	2.8%
08:30	GBP Producer Price Index - Input (YoY) n.s.a		7.6%	9.2%
08:30	GBP Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) n.s.a			0.4%
08:30	GBP Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) n.s.a		2.9%	2.9%
08:30	GBP PPI Core Output (MoM) n.s.a			0.2%
08:30	GBP Core Consumer Price Index (YoY)			2.1%
08:30	GBP Consumer Price Index (YoY)		2.5%	2.4%
08:30	GBP Consumer Price Index (MoM)		0.4%	0.4%
09:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (MoM)		0.1%	0.5%
09:00	EUR Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY)		1.1%	1.0%
09:00	EUR Consumer Price Index - Core (MoM)			0.3%
09:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)		2%	2%
n/a	EUR 30-y Bond Auction			1.06%
10:00	EUR Current Account Balance			€-0.722B
11:00	USD MBA Mortgage Applications			2.5%
11:00	ZAR Retail Sales (YoY)			0.5%
11:30	INR M3 Money Supply			9.8%
12:00	PLN Retail Sales (YoY)			7.6%
12:00	PLN Industrial Output (YoY)			5.4%
12:30	USD Housing Starts (MoM)		1.323M	1.350M
12:30	USD Building Permits (MoM)		1.328M	1.301M
12:30	USD Building Permits Change			-4.6%
12:30	USD Housing Starts Change			5%
13:00	RUB Unemployment Rate			4.7%
n/a	RUB Producer Price Index (MoM)
n/a	RUB Producer Price Index (YoY)
14:30	USD EIA Crude Oil Stocks change			-12.633M
18:00	USD Fed's Beige Book
23:50	JPY Exports (YoY)		7.5%	8.1%
23:50	JPY Imports (YoY)		8.2%	14.0%
23:50	JPY Merchandise Trade Balance Total			¥-578.3B
23:50	JPY Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance			¥-300B
23:50	JPY Trade Balance - BOP Basis		¥-235.0B	¥573.8B
Thursday, Jul 19
00:30	AUD Westpac Leading Index (MoM)			-0.2%
00:30	AUD National Australia Bank's Business Confidence (QoQ)			7
01:30	AUD Fulltime employment			-20.6K
01:30	AUD Part-time employment			32.6K
01:30	AUD Employment Change s.a.		18K	12K
01:30	AUD Unemployment Rate s.a.		5.5%	5.4%
01:30	AUD Participation Rate		65.6%	65.5%
04:30	EUR Unemployment Rate s.a (3M)			3.9%
06:00	CHF Exports (MoM)			20,036M
06:00	CHF Trade Balance			2,760M
06:00	CHF Imports (MoM)			17,276M
08:30	GBP Retail Sales (MoM)		0.3%	1.3%
08:30	GBP Retail Sales (YoY)		2.4%	3.9%
08:30	GBP Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY)			4.4%
08:30	GBP Retail Sales ex-Fuel (MoM)		0.3%	1.3%
08:30	HKD Unemployment rate			2.8%
08:40	EUR 10-y Obligaciones Auction
08:40	EUR 3-y Bond Auction			-0.098%
08:40	EUR 5-y Bond Auction
n/a	GBP 30-y Bond Auction			1.94%
12:30	USD Continuing Jobless Claims			1.739M
12:30	USD Initial Jobless Claims			214K
12:30	USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey		21.5	19.9
12:30	CAD ADP Employment Change			2.9K
13:00	RUB Central Bank Reserves $			$459.6B
14:30	USD EIA Natural Gas Storage change			51B
15:00	COP Trade Balance			$-325M
21:00	KRW Producer Price Index Growth			0.2%
21:00	KRW Producer Price Index Growth (YoY)			2.2%
22:45	NZD Visitor Arrivals (YoY)			6.2%
23:30	JPY National CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY)			0.7%
23:30	JPY National Consumer Price Index (YoY)			0.7%
23:30	JPY National CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY)			0.3%
23:50	JPY Foreign bond investment			¥817.9B
23:50	JPY Foreign investment in Japan stocks			¥74.3B
Friday, Jul 20
24h	COP Independence Day
04:30	JPY All Industry Activity Index (MoM)			1%
04:30	EUR Consumer Spending Volume			3%
04:30	EUR Consumer Confidence Adj			23

Author

Dhwani Mehta

FXStreet

Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.

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