Forex Today: GBP hit by Trump, Aussie ignores China trade, a light session ahead

Forex today saw limited action in Asia, with most majors sticking to tight trading ranges, despite upbeat Chinese trade figures. Meanwhile, the US dollar retained its bullish bias induced by upbeat remarks from the Fed Chief Powell delivered a day before. The pound emerged the main laggard, weighed down by Trump’s comments, favoring a hard-Brexit while the Yen remained on the back foot amid a risk-on rally in the Japanese stocks. The Antipodeans showed little reaction to widening Chinese trade surplus, as a drop in the Chinese copper and iron-ore imports kept a check on the upside. The Swiss franc kept losses above the 1.0000 mark versus its US counterpart heading into Swiss PPI release.

Main topics in Asia

Trump wants a hard Brexit - UK Press

President Trump has been vocal of his criticism of the EU recently and lamented to The Sun that PM May didn't take his advice on Brexit.        

US accuses North Korea of UN sanctions violations - Reuters

As reported by Reuters, the US has accused North Korea of circumventing UN sanctions by using at-sea cargo switching.

PBOC to inject 188.5bn Yuan via 1 year Medium-term lending facility

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) issued a statement on Friday, announcing that it injected 188.5bn Yuan via 1-year Medium-term lending facility (MLF) at 3.3 percent.

China Customs: Downward risks due to some country's unilateralism, protectionism

Comments from China's Customs are crossing the wires via Reuters …

China’s June trade balance (CNY): Surplus expands to 261.90 bn, a big beat

China's trade balance for June, in Yuan terms, came in at CNY 261.90bn versus CNY 165.61bn expected and CNY 156.51bn last. 

China’s June trade data (USD): Surplus expands as imports drop to 14.1%

The China customs published trade balance for June in USD terms, reporting a bigger-than-expected trade surplus as imports decline by a big margin.  

Key Focus ahead

Friday’s EUR macro calendar is a fairly light one, with nothing of note from the Euroland or the UK, except for the Bank of England (BOE) policymaker Cunliffe’s speech scheduled at 1100 GMT. In absence of fresh fundamental catalysts in Europe, the risk trends and US dollar price-action will continue to drive the fx markets amid ongoing US-China trade tensions.

Meanwhile, the NA session may offer some fresh trading impetus, with the US prelim UoM consumer sentiment and import prices data. However, the US macro news may play a second fiddle to the Fed’s semi-annual monetary policy report due to be published at 1500 GMT.

EUR/USD holds 20-day MA support despite upbeat Powell

The EUR/USD could see positive action on the last trading day of the week, having defended the key 20-day moving average (MA) support on Thursday.

GBP/USD continues to suffer at the hands of Brexit-minded bears

Friday is a thin showing on the economic calendar for both the GBP and the USD, with Friday's London session seeing a mid-tier speech from the Bank of England's (BoE) MPC Member Cunliffe at 11:00 GMT.

Focus is on Monetary Policy Report for the greenback - TDS

Analysts at TD Securities explained that the focus for the day ahead, in terms of the greenback, will fall on the Monetary Policy Report released at 11 am EDT.

US dollar: Risks further upside as valuation aren’t stretched – HSBC

In its latest client note, analysts at HSBC forecasts the US dollar rally to continue on the back of Fed’s interest rate outlook for this year.

GMT
Event
Vol.
Actual
Consensus
Previous
Thursday, Jul 12
24h
 
 
Friday, Jul 13
24h
 
 
03:07
6.0%
10.5%
15.6%
03:08
14.1%
20.8%
26.0%
03:08
11.3%
10.0%
12.6%
03:10
261.900B
165.647B
156.510B
04:30
-2.1%
-1.2%
1.8%
04:30
4.2%
6.0%
4.2%
04:30
-0.2%
-0.2%
-0.2%
04:30
4.2%
 
2.6%
06:00
 
 
2.9%
06:00
 
0.4%
0.8%
06:00
 
 
1.8%
06:00
 
 
€-0.9B
06:00
 
 
1%
06:00
 
 
16.3B
06:30
 
 
4.43%
06:45
 
 
0.2%
07:00
 
2.3%
2.3%
07:00
 
2.3%
2.1%
07:00
 
0.2%
0.9%
07:00
 
0.3%
0.9%
07:00
 
0.2%
0.0%
07:00
 
0.2%
0.0%
07:00
 
2.8%
2.6%
07:00
 
3.2%
3.0%
07:15
 
0.2%
0.2%
07:15
 
3.2%
3.2%
11:00
 
 
11:30
 
 
$406.06B
12:00
 
 
€-21M
n/a
 
 
1.2%
12:30
 
0.2%
0.6%
12:30
 
4.3%
4.3%
12:30
 
0.1%
0.6%
12:30
 
5.7%
4.9%
14:00
 
98.2
98.2
15:00
 
 
15:00
5.9%
 
6.3%
15:00
2.9%
 
10.5%
n/a
 
$14.50B
$14.62B
16:30
 
 
17:00
 
 
863
19:30
 
 
$78.3K
19:30
 
 
656.7K
19:30
 
 
$168K
19:30
 
 
£-28.8K
19:30
 
 
¥-38.7K
19:30
 
 
€36.7K
19:30
 
 
$-39.2K
Saturday, Jul 14
24h
 
 
n/a
 
8.3%
8.3%
n/a
 
1,600B
1,150B
Sunday, Jul 15
23:01
 
 
0.4%
23:01
 
 
1.6%
Monday, Jul 16
24h
 
 
24h
 
 
02:00
 
9.0%
8.5%
02:00
 
6.5%
6.8%
02:00
 
6.0%
6.1%
02:00
 
6.7%
6.8%
02:00
 
1.6%
1.4%
04:00
 
 
28.12%
04:00
 
 
12.47%
04:00
 
 
$-1.52B
n/a
 
 
07:00
 
 
10.1%
08:00
 
 
€1.077B
08:00
 
 
€2.938B
08:00
 
 
29.34B
08:00
 
 
2.7%
08:00
 
 
0%
09:00
 
 
2.7B
09:00
 
 
€16.7B
09:00
 
 
€18.1B
12:00
 
 
0.5%
12:30
 
22.75
25.00
12:30
 
0.4%
0.9%
12:30
 
 
0.5%
12:30
 
0.6%
0.8%
12:30
 
 
$-0.65B
12:30
 
 
$9.13B
13:00
 
 
3.7%
14:00
 
0.4%
0.3%
15:30
 
 
1.945%
15:30
 
 
2.1%
16:00
 
 
22:45
 
 
0.5%
22:45
 
 
1.1%
Tuesday, Jul 17
00:30
 
 
01:30
 
 
4.7%
02:00
 
 
07:00
 
 
6.2%
08:00
 
 
-1.3%
08:00
 
 
0.3%
08:00
 
 
6.4%
08:00
 
 
4%
08:30
 
 
2.8%
08:30
 
 
2.5%
08:30
 
 
2.5%
08:30
 
 
-7.7K
08:30
 
 
4.2%
09:00
 
1.4%
1.4%
09:00
 
0.3%
0.3%
09:00
 
0.3%
0.3%
09:00
 
1.5%
1.5%
09:30
 
 
3.9%
12:00
 
 
7%
12:30
 
0.6%
-1.3%
12:55
 
 
-0.2%
12:55
 
 
5.2%
13:15
 
0.5%
-0.1%
13:15
 
78.2%
77.9%
14:00
 
69
68
n/a
 
 
-5%
15:30
 
 
2.275%
15:30
 
 
1.85%
19:00
 
 
1.9%
20:00
 
 
$138.7B
20:00
 
 
$93.9B
20:30
 
 
-6.796M
Wednesday, Jul 18
24h
 
 
06:00
 
 
10.6
07:00
 
 
0.1%
07:00
 
 
2.1%
08:00
 
 
0.2%
08:00
 
 
4.4%
08:30
 
0.4%
0.4%
08:30
 
3.4%
3.3%
08:30
 
 
2.1%
08:30
 
1.6%
2.8%
08:30
 
7.6%
9.2%
08:30
 
 
0.4%
08:30
 
2.9%
2.9%
08:30
 
 
0.2%
08:30
 
 
2.1%
08:30
 
2.5%
2.4%
08:30
 
0.4%
0.4%
09:00
 
0.1%
0.5%
09:00
 
1.1%
1.0%
09:00
 
 
0.3%
09:00
 
2%
2%
n/a
 
 
1.06%
10:00
 
 
€-0.722B
11:00
 
 
2.5%
11:00
 
 
0.5%
11:30
 
 
9.8%
12:00
 
 
7.6%
12:00
 
 
5.4%
12:30
 
1.323M
1.350M
12:30
 
1.328M
1.301M
12:30
 
 
-4.6%
12:30
 
 
5%
13:00
 
 
4.7%
n/a
 
 
n/a
 
 
14:30
 
 
-12.633M
18:00
 
 
23:50
 
7.5%
8.1%
23:50
 
8.2%
14.0%
23:50
 
 
¥-578.3B
23:50
 
 
¥-300B
23:50
 
¥-235.0B
¥573.8B
Thursday, Jul 19
00:30
 
 
-0.2%
00:30
 
 
7
01:30
 
 
-20.6K
01:30
 
 
32.6K
01:30
 
18K
12K
01:30
 
5.5%
5.4%
01:30
 
65.6%
65.5%
04:30
 
 
3.9%
06:00
 
 
20,036M
06:00
 
 
2,760M
06:00
 
 
17,276M
08:30
 
0.3%
1.3%
08:30
 
2.4%
3.9%
08:30
 
 
4.4%
08:30
 
0.3%
1.3%
08:30
 
 
2.8%
08:40
 
 
08:40
 
 
-0.098%
08:40
 
 
n/a
 
 
1.94%
12:30
 
 
1.739M
12:30
 
 
214K
12:30
 
21.5
19.9
12:30
 
 
2.9K
13:00
 
 
$459.6B
14:30
 
 
51B
15:00
 
 
$-325M
21:00
 
 
0.2%
21:00
 
 
2.2%
22:45
 
 
6.2%
23:30
 
 
0.7%
23:30
 
 
0.7%
23:30
 
 
0.3%
23:50
 
 
¥817.9B
23:50
 
 
¥74.3B
Friday, Jul 20
24h
 
 
04:30
 
 
1%
04:30
 
 
3%
04:30
 
 
23

 

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