Forex Today: Dollar fights back as crude crash continues, gradual reopening in focus, US data eyed


Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, April 28:

The market mood has turned somewhat mellow after an upbeat Monda. The dollar is edging higher on Tuesday, especially against commodity currencies, and gold carried down below $1,700. Easing lockdowns remain in the spotlight in the developed world, yet at different paces. Oil prices have been extending their falls and central bank action is eyed.

The crude crash continues with WTI falling below $11 and Brent getting carried under $20. According to Goldman Sachs, storage may fill up in several weeks, forcing a broader cut, which would eventually lead to prices recovering in June. Around 60 tankers are floating around Singapore, unable to unload oil. 

France and Spain will publish plans to ease the lockdowns on Tuesday, as recent statistics Europe's largest countries have continued improving. Over 110,000 lives were lost in the old continent so far. Fears of a confidence-wreaking second wave are causing worries. 

Tension is mounting ahead of the European Central Bank's meeting on Thursday, which may offer additional support to Europe's beleaguered economies. Spain's Unemployment is due out later on.

See ECB Preview: The only game in town could be in lockdown, three mostly negative EUR/USD scenarios

UK: Prime Minister Boris Johnson is back to work and reluctant to ease restrictions and move to Phase Two, amid issues with testing and perhaps his own near-death COVID-19 experience. Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak said some four million Brits applied for the government's furlough scheme. Brexit talks, which were inconclusive last week, continue.

US: Several states are moving forward with letting their stay-at-home orders lapse or removing lockdowns, buoyed by President Donald Trump who wants schools to open. The president said his administration is investigating China's actions in response to COVID-19. Infections are nearing one million in the world's largest economy, yet the pace is slowing down. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence measure for April is set to plunge, showing the impact of the lockdown. 

See US Conference Board Consumer Confidence April Preview: Jobs, jobs, jobs

The Federal Reserve has announced a loosening of conditions in buying municipal debt, allowing smaller cities to participate in the scheme. The news comes ahead of the first scheduled meeting since January. 

See Fed Preview: Taking a break after two months of madness? Addicted markets may fall, dollar rise

The New Zealand dollar has dropped amid growing speculation that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will set negative rates. The bank previously opened the door to debt monetization. The fall of the kiwi has somewhat weighed on the Aussie. Both currencies gained on Monday after reporting significant achievements in curbing the outbreak.

The fate of North Korea's leader Kim Jong-un remains unknown. US President Donald Trump said he hopes Kim is OK but refrained from further comments about the rogue nuclear-armed nation. Rumors have been swirling in recent weeks. 

Cryptocurrencies have been stabilizing on higher ground, with Bitcoin hovering around $7,700.

Confirmed COVID-19 cases have surpassed three million, and mortalities have topped 211,000, with many more feared dead as losses of life in several countries are abnormal.

Vaccine?: Researchers at the Jenner Institute at Oxford have made substantial progress in developing a vaccine that seems to work on rhesus macaque monkeys. The team aims to kick off effectiveness trials in late May and potentially have millions of vaccine doses available in September. That is the most advanced effort, but dozens of efforts are underway.  

More: Reopening: Timing is tough and two assets have more room to rise regardless

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