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Forex Today: CHF sees 1 big figure spike in Asia; UK GDP, manufacturing on tap

Dhwani Mehta FXStreet

Forex today witnessed some volatile moves in the Swiss Franc in thin early Asian trading, with the USD/CHF pair having rallied hard nearly 1 big figure to test the 1.01 handle before reversing the entire spike to revert to parity. No major catalyst was seen behind the upsurge, except for the stops triggering on a breach of the 1.0030 strong upside barrier. The safe-haven Swiss Franc managed to regain the lost ground amid risk-off action in the Asian equities while the US dollar saw another leg higher and refreshed six-week tops at 96.71 vs. its main peers, as markets flocked to safety heading into the US-China trade talks scheduled later this week.

Among the Asia-pac currencies, the Antipodeans bounced on the back of a firmer re-open to the Chinese markets and record Chinese iron-ore futures. However, the upside lacked follow-through amid broad-based US dollar strength, leaving the Aussie struggling around 0.7100 levels. The USD/JPY pair attempted another run to test the 110 supply zone, but sellers continued to lurk amid a cautious market environment. Meanwhile, gold prices on Comex traded modestly flat near 1315 levels, despite global growth and trade worries. Both crude benchmarks slipped nearly 1% on bearish US drilling activity report.

Main Topics in Asia

UK PM May rejects Brexit customs union compromise

WTI Technical Analysis: $51.65 gains market attention

China Press: GDP to pull back to 6.3% in 2019

PBOC sets Yuan reference rate at 6.7495

China's Lunar New Year sales hit record low - Nikkei Asian Review

US delegation arrives in Beijing today ahead of US-China trade talks on Feb 14th and 15th

UK signs post-Brexit trade continuity deal with Switzerland - Bloomberg

Gold steadies above $1310 on global growth concerns

Study: Brexit referendum spurs UK companies into investing in EU - Reuters

Aussie pops in sync with iron-ore futures, as Chinese traders return

HIBOR rate hits lowest since June 2017 - Reuters

Asian stocks remain on back foot amid risk aversion

Key Focus Ahead

The EUR calendar kicks-off the week this Monday on an eventful note, with a flurry of significant macro releases due on the cards at 0930 GMT from the UK docket. The main focus is likely to be on the fourth quarter UK GDP release and the manufacturing production figures that will be parallelly released with the trade and monthly GDP figures. However, there is nothing of note from the Euroland. The Swiss CPI report for January, due at 0730 GMT, could draw some attention, in light of the recent CHF moves.

In the NA session, the Canadian trade data will be reported at 1330 GMT amid a lack of macro news from the US calendar, as the risk trends will continue to drive the market sentiment in the day ahead.

EUR/USD: January lows exposed on falling German yields and bearish close below 200-week MA

The EUR/USD pair could extend its five-day losing streak with a drop to the January low of 1.1289, courtesy of falling German bond yields and a bearish weekly close.

GBP/USD: Bears in control amid Brexit drama, focus shifts to UK GDP

Next on investors' radar is the fourth quarter UK GDP growth whereas developments concerning Brexit can continue playing background music to the moves. With the Brexit clock ticking faster without any strong developments, weak fundamental at home could open further downside for the GBP/USD pair.

Brexit Trifecta: May Rejects Corbyn's Customs Union Offer, What's Next?

The biggest fear for the Tories was a new election. May's gambit remains what it has always been, to play on the fears of both sides such that they would support her silly deal.

GBP/USD Weekly Forecast: Sterling has room to move lower as another Brexit fail nears

The UK economy is expected to report on the manufacturing, the fourth quarter GDP and the January inflation during the upcoming week with all figures painting the same picture of the general economic slowdown.

Will the US and China finally share their toys?

On the data front, we have a packed calendar this week. China is back from Lunar New Year and releases new loans today, which will be closely monitored for any slowdown signals.

GMT	Event	Consensus	Previous
Sunday, Feb 10
24h	CNY Chinese New Year
Monday, Feb 11
00:00	JPY National Foundation Day
24h	EUR Eurogroup meeting
07:00	DKK Inflation (HICP) (YoY)		0.7%
07:00	DKK Consumer Price Index (YoY)		0.8%
07:00	RON Trade Balance		€-1.57B
07:00	NOK Core Inflation (MoM)	-0.1%	0.0%
07:00	NOK Consumer Price Index (YoY)	3.4%	3.5%
07:00	NOK Consumer Price Index (MoM)	-0.1%	0.0%
07:00	NOK Core Inflation (YoY)	2.0%	2.1%
07:00	NOK Producer Price Index (YoY)		7.8%
07:30	CHF Consumer Price Index (YoY)	0.6%	0.7%
07:30	CHF Consumer Price Index (MoM)	-0.1%	-0.3%
08:00	EUR Industrial Output (YoY)	3.7%	3.3%
09:30	GBP Gross Domestic Product (YoY)	1.4%	1.5%
09:30	GBP Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)	0.2%	0.6%
09:30	GBP Manufacturing Production (YoY)	-0.7%	-1.1%
09:30	GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM)	0.1%	-0.3%
09:30	GBP Industrial Production (MoM)	0.2%	-0.4%
09:30	GBP Industrial Production (YoY)	-0.4%	-1.5%
09:30	GBP Total Business Investment (YoY)	-2.9%	-1.8%
09:30	GBP Total Business Investment (QoQ)	0.2%	-1.1%
09:30	GBP Index of Services (3M/3M)	0.3%	0.3%
09:30	GBP Trade Balance; non-EU	£-3.592B	£-3.925B
09:30	GBP Goods Trade Balance	£-11.80B	£-12.02B
09:30	GBP Total Trade Balance		£-2.904B
09:30	GBP Gross Domestic Product (MoM)		0.2%
n/a	GBP NIESR GDP Estimate (3M)	0.3%	0.3%
13:00	RUB Foreign Trade	$19.250B	$18.984B
n/a	USD Unit Labor Costs	1.7%	0.9%
n/a	CAD Imports		$50.39B
n/a	CAD International Merchandise Trade		$-2.06B
n/a	CAD Exports		$48.33B
14:00	MXN Industrial Output (MoM)		-0.6%
14:00	MXN Industrial Output (YoY)	0.5%	-1.3%
16:30	USD 3-Month Bill Auction		2.385%
16:30	USD 6-Month Bill Auction		2.44%
21:45	NZD Electronic Card Retail Sales (YoY)		0.6%
21:45	NZD Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM)		-2.3%
23:50	JPY Money Supply M2+CD (YoY)	2.6%	2.4%
Tuesday, Feb 12
00:30	AUD Home Loans	-2.0%	-0.9%
00:30	AUD Investment Lending for Homes		-4.5%
00:30	AUD National Australia Bank's Business Confidence	3	3
00:30	AUD National Australia Bank's Business Conditions	4	2
02:00	CNY M2 Money Supply (YoY)	8.2%	8.1%
02:00	CNY Foreign Exchange Reserves (MoM)	¥3.082T	¥3.073T
02:00	CNY New Loans	2,800B	1,080B
n/a	CNY FDI - Foreign Direct Investment (YTD) (YoY)		0.9%
04:30	JPY Tertiary Industry Index (MoM)	0.4%	-0.3%
05:00	SGD Retail Sales (YoY)		-3%
05:00	SGD Retail Sales (MoM)		0.2%
06:00	JPY Machine Tool Orders (YoY)		-18.3%
08:00	HUF Consumer Price Index (YoY)		2.7%
08:00	HUF Core Consumer Price Index (YoY)		2.8%
n/a	EUR 12-Month Letras Auction		-0.333%
n/a	EUR 6-Month Letras Auction		-0.428%
09:30	ZAR Unemployment Total		6.2M
09:30	ZAR Unemployment Rate (%)		27.5%
11:00	USD NFIB Business Optimism Index	103.2	104.4
11:00	ZAR Manufacturing Production Index (YoY)	1.7%	1.6%
11:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)	0.4%	0.4%
11:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (MoM)	-1.2%	-1.2%
12:00	INR Manufacturing Output		-0.4%
12:00	INR Industrial Output	2.0%	0.5%
12:00	INR Cumulative Industrial Output		5%
13:55	USD Redbook index (MoM)		-2%
13:55	USD Redbook index (YoY)		5.7%
15:00	USD JOLTS Job Openings	6.960M	6.888M
18:45	USD Fed's Chair Powell speech
20:30	USD CFTC Gold NC net positions		$99.2K
20:30	USD CFTC Oil NC net positions		277.2K
20:30	USD CFTC USD NC net positions		$131.8K
20:30	GBP CFTC GBP NC net positions		£-60.1K
20:30	JPY CFTC JPY NC net positions		¥-61.3K
20:30	EUR CFTC EUR NC net positions		€-40.5K
20:30	AUD CFTC AUD NC net positions		$-37.8K
21:00	NZD RBNZ Press Conference
21:30	USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock		2.514M
22:30	USD Fed's George speech
23:00	KRW Unemployment Rate		3.8%
23:30	USD Fed's Mester speech
23:30	AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence		-4.7%
23:50	JPY Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index (YoY)	1.1%	1.5%
23:50	JPY Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index (MoM)	-0.2%	-0.6%
Wednesday, Feb 13
01:00	NZD RBNZ Rate Statement
01:00	NZD RBNZ Interest Rate Decision	1.75%	1.75%
01:00	NZD Monetary Policy Statement
02:00	KRW Trade Balance		$1.34B
03:00	NZD RBNZ Inflation Expectations (QoQ)		2%
05:30	EUR Consumer Price Index n.s.a (YoY)		2%
07:00	RON Industrial Production (MoM)		0.8%
07:00	RON Consumer Price Index	3.2%	3.3%
08:00	HUF Industrial Output (YoY)		5.4%
08:00	CZK Consumer Price Index (YoY)		2%
08:00	CZK Consumer Price Index (MoM)	0.1%	0.1%
08:30	SEK Riksbank Interest Rate Decision	-0.50%	-0.25%
09:30	GBP Retail Price Index (YoY)	2.7%	2.7%
09:30	GBP Retail Price Index (MoM)	0.5%	0.4%
09:30	GBP Producer Price Index - Input (YoY) n.s.a	3.8%	3.7%
09:30	GBP Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) n.s.a	0.0%	-0.3%
09:30	GBP PPI Core Output (MoM) n.s.a	0.2%	0.2%
09:30	GBP Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) n.s.a	2.3%	2.5%
09:30	GBP PPI Core Output (YoY) n.s.a	2.4%	2.5%
09:30	GBP Producer Price Index - Input (MoM) n.s.a	0.3%	-1.0%
09:30	GBP Core Consumer Price Index (YoY)	1.9%	1.9%
09:30	GBP Consumer Price Index (YoY)	2.0%	2.1%
09:30	GBP Consumer Price Index (MoM)		0.2%
10:00	EUR Industrial Production s.a. (MoM)	-0.3%	-1.7%
10:00	EUR Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY)	-3.1%	-3.3%
n/a	EUR 30-y Bond Auction		0.85%
11:00	BRL Retail Sales (MoM)		2.9%
11:00	ZAR Retail Sales (YoY)	2.7%	3.1%
11:30	INR M3 Money Supply		10.4%
12:00	USD MBA Mortgage Applications		-2.5%
13:00	PLN Current Account		€-221M
13:30	USD Consumer Price Index (MoM)	-0.1%	-0.1%
13:30	USD Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM)		251.23
13:30	USD Consumer Price Index Core s.a		260.03
13:30	USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM)	0.2%	0.2%
13:30	USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY)	2.1%	2.2%
13:30	USD Consumer Price Index (YoY)	1.6%	1.9%
16:00	COP Gross Domestic Product (YoY)		2.7%
19:00	USD Monthly Budget Statement	$-12B	$-205B
21:45	NZD Food Price Index (MoM)		-0.2%
23:50	JPY Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)	0.4%	-0.6%
23:50	JPY Gross Domestic Product Annualized	1.4%	-2.5%
23:50	JPY Gross Domestic Product Deflator (YoY)	-0.4%	-0.3%
Thursday, Feb 14
00:00	AUD Consumer Inflation Expectations		3.5%
00:01	GBP RICS Housing Price Balance	-20%	-19%
n/a	CNY Exports (YoY)	-3.3%	-4.4%
n/a	CNY Trade Balance USD	$33.50B	$57.06B
n/a	CNY Imports (YoY) CNY		-3.1%
n/a	CNY Exports (YoY) CNY		0.2%
n/a	CNY Imports (YoY)	-9.0%	-7.6%
n/a	CNY Trade Balance CNY		395B
06:30	INR WPI Inflation	3.65%	3.80%
06:30	EUR ILO Unemployment	9.1%	9.1%
07:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)	0.1%	-0.2%
07:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product w.d.a (YoY)	0.9%	1.1%
07:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product (YoY)	0.8%	1.1%
07:00	TRY Industrial Production (YoY)	-7.5%	-6.5%
07:00	TRY Current Account Balance	$0.970B	$0.986B
07:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product (YoY)		1.8%
07:00	EUR Current Account		€0.2B
07:00	RON Gross Domestic Product	3.9%	4.4%
08:00	HUF Gross Domestic Product (YoY)		4.9%
08:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product Prelim (YoY)	4.4%	4.6%
08:30	EUR Gross Domestic Product s.a (QoQ)		0.2%
08:30	EUR Gross Domestic Product n.s.a (YoY)		2.4%
08:30	SEK Unemployment Rate		6%
09:00	PLN Gross Domestic Product Qtr (YoY)		5.1%
09:00	CZK Current Account (MoM)		8.68B
09:30	EUR Gross Domestic Product (YoY)		2.1%
10:00	EUR Consumer Price Index - Harmonized (YoY)		0.6%
10:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)		0.6%
10:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY)	1.2%	1.2%
10:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ)	0.2%	0.2%
10:00	EUR Employment Change (QoQ)		0.2%
10:00	EUR Employment Change (YoY)		1.3%
11:00	EUR HICP (YoY)		0.8%
11:00	EUR HICP (MoM)		-0.1%
11:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (MoM)		0%
11:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)		0.7%
13:00	RUB Central Bank Reserves $		$477.7B
13:30	USD Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM)	0.0%	0.2%
13:30	USD Retail Sales (MoM)	0.1%	0.2%
13:30	USD Retail Sales control group	0.4%	0.9%
13:30	USD Producer Price Index (MoM)	0.1%	-0.2%
13:30	USD Producer Price Index (YoY)	2.1%	2.5%
13:30	USD Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)	2.5%	2.7%
13:30	USD Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM)	0.2%	-0.1%
13:30	USD Continuing Jobless Claims		1.736M
13:30	USD Initial Jobless Claims	228K	234K
13:30	CAD Manufacturing Shipments (MoM)		-1.4%
13:30	CAD New Housing Price Index (YoY)		0%
13:30	CAD New Housing Price Index (MoM)		0%
15:00	USD Business Inventories	0.3%	0.6%
15:00	COP Retail Sales (YoY)		10.8%
15:00	COP Trade Balance	$-1,033.0M	$-920.1M
15:00	COP Industrial ouput (YoY)		4.7%
16:30	USD 4-Week Bill Auction		2.39%
19:00	ARS Consumer Price Index (MoM)		2.6%
21:30	NZD Business NZ PMI		55.1
22:45	NZD Visitor Arrivals (YoY)		7.1%
23:50	JPY Foreign bond investment		¥915.3B
23:50	JPY Foreign investment in Japan stocks		¥-123.8B
Friday, Feb 15
01:30	CNY Producer Price Index (YoY)	0.3%	0.9%
01:30	CNY Consumer Price Index (MoM)	0.5%	0.0%
01:30	CNY Consumer Price Index (YoY)	2.0%	1.9%
04:30	JPY Industrial Production (MoM)	-0.1%	-0.1%
04:30	JPY Industrial Production (YoY)		-1.9%
04:30	JPY Capacity Utilization		1%
05:30	EUR Retail Sales (YoY)		4.6%
07:00	TRY 3mth quarterly jobless average		11.6%
07:00	NOK Trade Balance		25B
08:00	TRY Budget Balance		-18.1B
08:00	EUR HICP (YoY)	1.2%	1.0%
08:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (MoM)	-0.4%	-1.3%
08:00	EUR HICP (MoM)	-0.5%	-1.7%
08:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)	1.2%	1.0%
08:00	CZK Gross Domestic Product (YoY)		2.4%
08:00	EUR Headline Inflation (MoM)	1.0%	-0.1%
08:00	EUR Core Inflation (MoM)	0.8%	-0.4%
08:00	EUR Core Inflation (YoY)	1.8%	1.8%
08:00	EUR Headline Inflation (YoY)	2.2%	1.9%
09:00	EUR Global Trade Balance		€3.843B
09:00	EUR Trade Balance EU		€0.513B
09:00	PLN Consumer Price Index (MoM)	0.1%	0.0%
09:00	PLN Consumer Price Index (YoY)		1.1%
09:00	PLN Consumer Price Index (YoY)
09:30	GBP Retail Sales ex-Fuel (MoM)	0.2%	-1.3%
09:30	GBP Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY)	3.0%	2.6%
09:30	GBP Retail Sales (MoM)	0.1%	-0.9%
09:30	GBP Retail Sales (YoY)	3.4%	3.0%
10:00	EUR Trade Balance s.a.		€15.1B
10:00	EUR Trade Balance n.s.a.		€19B
11:30	INR Bank Loan Growth		14.5%
11:30	INR FX Reserves, USD		$400.24B
13:30	USD NY Empire State Manufacturing Index	6.0	3.9
13:30	USD Export Price Index (YoY)		1.1%
13:30	USD Import Price Index (MoM)	-0.2%	-1.0%
13:30	USD Import Price Index (YoY)		-0.6%
13:30	USD Export Price Index (MoM)	-0.4%	-0.6%
13:30	CAD Canadian portfolio investment in foreign securities		$-4.09B
13:30	CAD Foreign portfolio investment in Canadian securities		$9.45B
14:15	USD Capacity Utilization	78.8%	78.7%
14:15	USD Industrial Production (MoM)		0.3%
14:55	USD Fed's Bostic speech
15:00	USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index	94.5	91.2
18:00	USD Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count		854
20:30	USD CFTC USD NC net positions
20:30	USD CFTC Gold NC net positions
20:30	USD CFTC Oil NC net positions
20:30	GBP CFTC GBP NC net positions
20:30	JPY CFTC JPY NC net positions
20:30	EUR CFTC EUR NC net positions
20:30	AUD CFTC AUD NC net positions
21:00	USD Net Long-Term TIC Flows		$31.3B
21:00	USD Total Net TIC Flows		$42B

Author

Dhwani Mehta

FXStreet

Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.

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