Forex Today: Cautious start to a Big week ahead, eyes on UK Annual Budget report


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Forex Today witnessed two-way business in Asia on the first trading day of the week, with the risks sentiment driving the market sentiment amid a sell-off in the Chinese stocks, as China slowdown fears begin to bite again. Amidst risk-aversion, the US dollar traded well bid across the board, lending some support to the USD/JPY recovery, as the Yen markets cheer upbeat Japanese retail trade data.

However, the Antipodeans staged a solid comeback and tested highs towards the Asia closing, in the wake of a rally in the Aussie and NZ stocks while oil and gold prices traded modestly flat, having little impact on the commodity currencies. Meanwhile, both the EUR and GBP traded modestly flat, as the sentiment was dented by the German political uncertainty and looming Brexit woes.

Main Topics in Asia

Over the weekend: German election results putting pressure on Merkel

Brazil elections: Bolsonaro elected as president – Standard Chartered

Austrian FinMin Loeger: Greek debt crisis will not repeat itself in Italy

French FinMIn Le Maire: Eurozone is not sufficiently armed to face a new economic/ financial crisis

UK's Exchequer Hammond: May have to extend austerity measures if needed - Sky News

Japan Retail Trade comes in mostly better-than-expected, annualized in at 2.1%

PBOC drains 120 billion Yuan from the market

Asian stocks trade mixed after bearish close in S&P 500

China CommerceMin: To impose anti-dumping tax on some chemicals from US, Saudi, Malaysia and Thailand    

Key Focus Ahead

Heading into a new week, the EUR calendar for Monday remains data-light, with nothing of relevance, except for the UK mortgage approvals and CBI Distributive trade survey.  The UK Annual Budget report will be published by the UK Chancellor Hammond, who will deliver the budget speech around 1530 GMT.  Also, the European Commission’s Eurozone economic growth forecasts report will be released by 1000 GMT, which could offer some incentives to the EUR traders.

The NA session headlines the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index (YoY) for the month of September, which is seen arriving at 2%. The FOMC member Evans speech is due at 1345 GMT, followed by the Dallas Fed manufacturing business index at 1430 GMT.

EUR/USD: Risk-off and political uncertainty in Germany may keep EUR under pressure

The EUR/USD picked up a bid on Friday, courtesy of broad-based losses in the greenback. The USD may remain bid on risk aversion and political uncertainty in Germany could keep the EUR under pressure.

GBP/USD holding above 1.2800 ahead of UK budget speech, US consumer spending data

Monday is slated to see the latest Annual Budget from the Exchequer Chancellor Phillip Hammond, and the chancellor is expected to unveil key details from the UK's budgetary outlook, somewhere around 15:30 GMT.

Gold: bulls have eyes set on $1,248 target

Spot gold is making higher lows even when the dollar is strong, picking up the safe haven flows following the latest drop in global equities

GBP/USD Weekly Forecast: Song remains the same as the MPC is dazed and confused with Brexit uncertainties

With the Bank of England expected to remain dazed and confused with Brexit uncertainty and to hold back in terms of action, the US economic development is expected to support the US Dollar further in the upcoming week with the US labor market report expected …

Asia week ahead: Eyes on China - ING

Analysts at ING Bank explained that there will be a lot of focus on China data this week. 

The week ahead: US jobs, BoE and BoJ headlining - Nomura

"The week ahead We expect a healthy 175k gain in nonfarm payroll employment, solid wage growth and moderating manufacturer sentiment.”

GMT
Event
Vol.
Actual
Consensus
Previous
Sunday, Oct 28
24h
 
 
24h
 
 
23:50
0.4%
 
-0.1%
23:50
2.1%
1.6%
2.7%
23:50
-0.2%
 
0.9%
Monday, Oct 29
24h
 
 
n/a
 
 
24h
 
 
04:20
1.1%
 
-2.9%
06:00
 
5.50%
6.74%
06:00
 
5.90%
6.95%
07:00
 
 
20.2
07:00
 
 
11
09:00
 
 
4.4%
09:00
 
 
0.4%
09:00
 
 
55
09:00
 
 
2.7%
09:00
 
 
0.2%
09:30
 
 
£4B
09:30
 
£1.200B
£1.118B
09:30
 
64.75K
66.44K
09:30
 
 
0.2%
09:30
 
 
1.2%
n/a
 
 
11:00
 
 
23%
12:30
 
0.1%
0.0%
12:30
 
 
2.2%
12:30
 
0.3%
0.3%
12:30
 
 
0.1%
12:30
 
0.4%
0.3%
12:30
 
2%
2%
12:30
 
 
-16.876B
12:30
 
 
-17.928B
13:45
 
 
14:00
 
 
0.3%
14:30
 
 
28.1
15:30
 
 
2.3%
15:30
 
 
2.425%
n/a
 
 
21:00
 
 
78
23:30
 
2.4%
2.4%
23:30
 
1.63
1.63
Tuesday, Oct 30
00:30
 
 
-13.6%
00:30
 
3.0%
-9.4%
02:10
 
 
06:30
 
0.5%
0.2%
07:00
 
 
-1
07:00
 
 
0.6%
07:45
 
-0.6%
0.8%
08:00
 
 
2.3%
08:00
 
 
0.2%
08:00
 
 
0.6%
08:00
 
 
2.3%
08:00
 
 
0.3%
08:00
 
 
0.2%
08:00
 
 
3.4%
08:00
 
 
3.7%
08:00
 
100.6
102.2
08:55
 
-12K
23K
08:55
 
5.1%
5.1%
09:00
 
1.0%
1.2%
09:00
 
0.2%
0.2%
09:30
 
 
6.1M
09:30
 
 
27.2%
09:30
 
 
2.4
09:30
 
 
-1.4
10:00
 
115
116
10:00
 
 
105.7
n/a
 
 
2.9%
10:00
 
 
1.52%
10:00
 
 
7.4%
10:00
 
 
2.6%
10:00
 
 
-3.3%
10:00
 
1.9%
2.1%
10:00
 
0.4%
0.4%
10:00
 
-2.7
-2.7
10:00
 
14.0
14.6
10:00
 
3.9
4.7
10:00
 
1.15
1.21
10:00
 
110.0
110.9
11:00
 
 
12.1%
11:00
 
 
0%
11:00
 
 
2.35%
12:55
 
 
5.5%
12:55
 
 
0%
13:00
 
5.8%
5.9%
13:00
 
2.3%
2.2%
13:00
 
0.1%
0.4%
13:00
 
2.4%
2.3%
13:00
 
0.1%
0.4%
15:30
 
 
2.18%
20:30
 
 
9.88M
21:00
 
 
-31.45B
21:45
 
 
7.8%
23:00
 
 
1.4%
23:00
 
 
0.1%
23:00
 
 
2.5%
23:50
 
 
0.2%
23:50
 
-0.3%
0.2%
Wednesday, Oct 31
24h
 
 
00:00
 
 
7.8%
00:00
 
 
-38.3
00:01
 
-10
-9
00:01
 
 
0.2%
00:30
 
 
4.5%
00:30
 
 
0.5%
00:30
 
0.4%
0.5%
00:30
 
1.9%
2.1%
00:30
 
0.4%
0.4%
00:30
 
1.9%
1.9%
01:00
 
50.7
50.8
01:00
 
 
54.9
n/a
 
 
n/a
 
 
-0.1%
n/a
 
 
n/a
 
 
05:00
 
 
05:00
 
 
0.957M
05:00
 
-0.7%
1.6%
05:00
 
 
0.5%
05:00
 
 
43.4
07:00
 
0.5%
-0.1%
07:00
 
1.0%
1.6%
07:00
 
 
-2.42B
07:00
 
 
15.6%
07:00
 
 
71
07:00
 
 
3.2%
07:45
 
 
2.5%
07:45
 
 
-0.2%
08:00
 
0.6%
0.6%
08:00
 
2.8%
2.7%
08:00
 
0.6%
0.6%
08:00
 
 
8.1%
09:00
 
9.9%
9.7%
09:00
 
0.2%
0.2%
09:00
 
1.9%
1.8%
09:00
 
 
€0.11B
09:00
 
 
-30.8
10:00
 
 
1.4%
10:00
 
 
-0.5%
10:00
 
0.3%
1.7%
10:00
 
1.8%
1.5%
10:00
 
 
2.5%
10:00
 
 
5,912.91B
10:00
 
8.1%
8.1%
10:00
 
2.2%
2.1%
10:00
 
1.0%
0.9%
11:00
 
 
4.9%
11:30
 
 
4.2%
12:00
 
 
4%
12:00
 
5.00B
8.79B
12:15
 
189K
230K
12:30
 
0.7%
0.6%
12:30
 
 
-0.5%
12:30
 
-1.5%
-4.6%
12:30
 
 
0.2%
13:00
 
 
7.3%
13:45
 
60.5
60.4
14:30
 
 
6.35M
15:00
 
 
9.2%
17:00
 
6.5%
6.5%
19:00
 
 
-5.6%
21:30
 
 
59
23:00
 
 
1.9%
23:00
 
 
0.7%
23:50
 
 
¥76.5B
23:50
 
 
¥8.1B
Thursday, Nov 01
24h
 
 
24h
 
 
24h
 
 
24h
 
 
00:00
 
 
$9.57B
24h
 
 
24h
 
 
24h
 
 
24h
 
 
24h
 
 
00:30
 
 
51.3
00:30
 
 
3.2%
00:30
 
 
1.9%
00:30
 
 
0%
00:30
 
 
1%
00:30
 
1,700M
1,604M
01:45
 
49.9
50.0
n/a
 
 
4.35%
04:00
 
 
2.82%
04:00
 
 
2.88%
04:00
 
 
-0.18%
05:00
 
 
52.2
05:30
 
 
4.8%
06:00
 
 
50
06:45
 
 
-7
07:00
 
0.2%
0.3%
07:00
 
1.9%
2.0%
n/a
 
 
6.9%
n/a
 
 
279.9K
07:30
 
 
55.2
08:15
 
1.1%
1.0%
08:15
 
 
0.1%
08:30
 
 
9.5%
08:30
 
 
53.4
08:30
 
58.5
59.7
09:00
 
 
53.6
09:30
 
53.0
53.8
11:00
 
0.2%
-0.3%
11:00
 
3.2%
2.0%
11:30
 
 
55.285K
12:00
 
 
50.9
12:00
 
 
49.67
12:00
 
0.75%
0.75%
12:00
 
£435B
£435B
12:00
 
 
12:00
 
 
12:00
 
9
9
12:00
 
0
0
12:00
 
0
0
12:00
 
 
12:00
 
1.5%
1.5%
12:30
 
 
1.636M
12:30
 
215K
215K
12:30
 
1.2%
-1.0%
12:30
 
2.0%
2.9%
12:30
 
 
13:00
 
 
16.77B
13:30
 
 
54.8
13:45
 
 
55.9
14:00
 
59.0
59.8
14:00
 
67.0
66.9
14:00
 
0.1%
0.1%
14:30
 
 
58B
18:00
 
 
4.971B
19:30
 
17.10M
17.44M
20:00
 
 
295.82B
23:50
 
 
5.9%
Friday, Nov 02
24h
 
 
00:30
 
0.3%
0.3%
00:30
 
 
0.3%
00:30
 
 
1.5%
06:45
 
 
€-97.3B
07:00
 
0.6%
0.0%
07:00
 
4.6%
4.8%
08:00
 
 
50.5
08:15
 
50.8
51.4
08:15
 
 
0.3%
08:45
 
49.5
50.0
08:50
 
51.2
51.2
08:55
 
52.3
52.3
09:00
 
52.1
52.1
09:00
 
80.50K
81.04K
09:00
 
2.2%
2.3%
09:30
 
51.9
52.1
11:30
 
 
$393.52B
12:30
 
34.5
34.5
12:30
 
3.1%
2.8%
12:30
 
190K
134K
12:30
 
0.3%
0.3%
12:30
 
 
62.7%
12:30
 
3.7%
3.7%
12:30
 
$-53.6B
$-53.2B
12:30
 
5.9%
5.9%
12:30
 
 
65.4%
12:30
 
25.0K
63.3K
13:00
 
 
52.4
13:30
 
 
$50.55B
13:30
 
 
$0.53B
13:30
 
 
$50.02B
13:45
 
 
72.5
14:00
 
0.4%
2.3%
15:00
 
 
467.9B
17:00
 
 
875
20:00
 
 
22:45
 
 
Saturday, Nov 03
24h
 
 
24h
 
 
24h
 
 

 

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