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Forex Today: Cautious start to a Big week ahead, eyes on UK Annual Budget report

Dhwani Mehta FXStreet

Forex Today witnessed two-way business in Asia on the first trading day of the week, with the risks sentiment driving the market sentiment amid a sell-off in the Chinese stocks, as China slowdown fears begin to bite again. Amidst risk-aversion, the US dollar traded well bid across the board, lending some support to the USD/JPY recovery, as the Yen markets cheer upbeat Japanese retail trade data.

However, the Antipodeans staged a solid comeback and tested highs towards the Asia closing, in the wake of a rally in the Aussie and NZ stocks while oil and gold prices traded modestly flat, having little impact on the commodity currencies. Meanwhile, both the EUR and GBP traded modestly flat, as the sentiment was dented by the German political uncertainty and looming Brexit woes.

Main Topics in Asia

Over the weekend: German election results putting pressure on Merkel

Brazil elections: Bolsonaro elected as president – Standard Chartered

Austrian FinMin Loeger: Greek debt crisis will not repeat itself in Italy

French FinMIn Le Maire: Eurozone is not sufficiently armed to face a new economic/ financial crisis

UK's Exchequer Hammond: May have to extend austerity measures if needed - Sky News

Japan Retail Trade comes in mostly better-than-expected, annualized in at 2.1%

PBOC drains 120 billion Yuan from the market

Asian stocks trade mixed after bearish close in S&P 500

China CommerceMin: To impose anti-dumping tax on some chemicals from US, Saudi, Malaysia and Thailand

Key Focus Ahead

Heading into a new week, the EUR calendar for Monday remains data-light, with nothing of relevance, except for the UK mortgage approvals and CBI Distributive trade survey. The UK Annual Budget report will be published by the UK Chancellor Hammond, who will deliver the budget speech around 1530 GMT. Also, the European Commission’s Eurozone economic growth forecasts report will be released by 1000 GMT, which could offer some incentives to the EUR traders.

The NA session headlines the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index (YoY) for the month of September, which is seen arriving at 2%. The FOMC member Evans speech is due at 1345 GMT, followed by the Dallas Fed manufacturing business index at 1430 GMT.

EUR/USD: Risk-off and political uncertainty in Germany may keep EUR under pressure

The EUR/USD picked up a bid on Friday, courtesy of broad-based losses in the greenback. The USD may remain bid on risk aversion and political uncertainty in Germany could keep the EUR under pressure.

GBP/USD holding above 1.2800 ahead of UK budget speech, US consumer spending data

Monday is slated to see the latest Annual Budget from the Exchequer Chancellor Phillip Hammond, and the chancellor is expected to unveil key details from the UK's budgetary outlook, somewhere around 15:30 GMT.

Gold: bulls have eyes set on $1,248 target

Spot gold is making higher lows even when the dollar is strong, picking up the safe haven flows following the latest drop in global equities.

GBP/USD Weekly Forecast: Song remains the same as the MPC is dazed and confused with Brexit uncertainties

With the Bank of England expected to remain dazed and confused with Brexit uncertainty and to hold back in terms of action, the US economic development is expected to support the US Dollar further in the upcoming week with the US labor market report expected …

Asia week ahead: Eyes on China - ING

Analysts at ING Bank explained that there will be a lot of focus on China data this week.

The week ahead: US jobs, BoE and BoJ headlining - Nomura

"The week ahead We expect a healthy 175k gain in nonfarm payroll employment, solid wage growth and moderating manufacturer sentiment.”

GMT	Event	Actual	Consensus	Previous
Sunday, Oct 28
24h	EUR The Ochi day
24h	CZK Foundation of the independent Czechoslovak State
23:50	JPY Large Retailers' Sales	0.4%		-0.1%
23:50	JPY Retail Trade (YoY)	2.1%	1.6%	2.7%
23:50	JPY Retail Trade s.a (MoM)	-0.2%		0.9%
Monday, Oct 29
24h	TRY Republic Day
n/a	GBP Budget Report
24h	EUR October Holiday (Halloween)
04:20	AUD HIA New Home Sales (MoM)	1.1%		-2.9%
06:00	ZAR Private Sector Credit		5.50%	6.74%
06:00	ZAR M3 Money Supply (YoY)		5.90%	6.95%
07:00	EUR Consumer Confidence			20.2
07:00	EUR Industrial Confidence			11
09:00	EUR Producer Price Index (YoY)			4.4%
09:00	EUR Producer Price Index (MoM)			0.4%
09:00	EUR Purchasing Manager Index			55
09:00	ISK Consumer Price Index (YoY)			2.7%
09:00	ISK Consumer Price Index (MoM)			0.2%
09:30	GBP Net Lending to Individuals (MoM)			£4B
09:30	GBP Consumer Credit		£1.200B	£1.118B
09:30	GBP Mortgage Approvals		64.75K	66.44K
09:30	GBP M4 Money Supply (MoM)			0.2%
09:30	GBP M4 Money Supply (YoY)			1.2%
n/a	EUR European Commission Releases Economic Growth Forecasts
11:00	GBP CBI Distributive Trades Survey - Realized (MoM)			23%
12:30	USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditure - Price Index (MoM)		0.1%	0.0%
12:30	USD Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)			2.2%
12:30	USD Personal Income (MoM)		0.3%	0.3%
12:30	USD Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)			0.1%
12:30	USD Personal Spending		0.4%	0.3%
12:30	USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditure - Price Index (YoY)		2%	2%
12:30	BRL Primary Budget Surplus			-16.876B
12:30	BRL Nominal Budget Balance			-17.928B
13:45	USD Fed's Evans Speech
14:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)			0.3%
14:30	USD Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index			28.1
15:30	USD 3-Month Bill Auction			2.3%
15:30	USD 6-Month Bill Auction			2.425%
n/a	USD Loan Officer Survey
21:00	KRW BOK Manufacturing BSI			78
23:30	JPY Unemployment Rate		2.4%	2.4%
23:30	JPY Jobs/applicants ratio		1.63	1.63
Tuesday, Oct 30
00:30	AUD Building Permits (YoY)			-13.6%
00:30	AUD Building Permits (MoM)		3.0%	-9.4%
02:10	AUD RBA Assistant Governor Bullock Speech
06:30	EUR Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)		0.5%	0.2%
07:00	DKK Industrial Outlook			-1
07:00	NOK Retail Sales			0.6%
07:45	EUR Consumer Spending (MoM)		-0.6%	0.8%
08:00	EUR HICP (YoY)			2.3%
08:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (MoM)			0.2%
08:00	EUR HICP (MoM)			0.6%
08:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)			2.3%
08:00	EUR Retail Sales (YoY)			0.3%
08:00	EUR Producer Price Index (MoM)			0.2%
08:00	EUR Producer Price Index (YoY)			3.4%
08:00	HUF Unemployment Rate (3M)			3.7%
08:00	CHF KOF Leading Indicator		100.6	102.2
08:55	EUR Unemployment Change		-12K	23K
08:55	EUR Unemployment Rate s.a.		5.1%	5.1%
09:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product (YoY)		1.0%	1.2%
09:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)		0.2%	0.2%
09:30	ZAR Unemployment Total			6.1M
09:30	ZAR Unemployment Rate (%)			27.2%
09:30	EUR Business Confidence			2.4
09:30	EUR Consumer Confidence			-1.4
10:00	EUR Consumer Confidence		115	116
10:00	EUR Business Confidence			105.7
n/a	EUR 10-y Bond Auction			2.9%
10:00	BRL Inflation Index/IGP-M			1.52%
10:00	EUR Producer Price Index (YoY)			7.4%
10:00	EUR Retail Sales (YoY)			2.6%
10:00	EUR Retail Sales (MoM)			-3.3%
10:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY)		1.9%	2.1%
10:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ)		0.4%	0.4%
10:00	EUR Consumer Confidence		-2.7	-2.7
10:00	EUR Services Sentiment		14.0	14.6
10:00	EUR Industrial Confidence		3.9	4.7
10:00	EUR Business Climate		1.15	1.21
10:00	EUR Economic Sentiment Indicator		110.0	110.9
11:00	BRL Unemployment Rate			12.1%
11:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (MoM)			0%
11:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)			2.35%
12:55	USD Redbook index (YoY)			5.5%
12:55	USD Redbook index (MoM)			0%
13:00	USD S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (YoY)		5.8%	5.9%
13:00	EUR Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)		2.3%	2.2%
13:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (MoM)		0.1%	0.4%
13:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)		2.4%	2.3%
13:00	EUR Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM)		0.1%	0.4%
15:30	USD 4-Week Bill Auction			2.18%
20:30	USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock			9.88M
21:00	MXN Fiscal Balance, pesos			-31.45B
21:45	NZD Building Permits s.a. (MoM)			7.8%
23:00	KRW Industrial Output Growth			1.4%
23:00	KRW Service Sector Output			0.1%
23:00	KRW Industrial Output (YoY)			2.5%
23:50	JPY Industrial Production (YoY)			0.2%
23:50	JPY Industrial Production (MoM)		-0.3%	0.2%
Wednesday, Oct 31
24h	EUR Day of Reformation
00:00	NZD ANZ Activity Outlook			7.8%
00:00	NZD ANZ Business Confidence			-38.3
00:01	GBP Gfk Consumer Confidence		-10	-9
00:01	GBP BRC Shop Price Index (YoY)			0.2%
00:30	AUD Private Sector Credit (YoY)			4.5%
00:30	AUD Private Sector Credit (MoM)			0.5%
00:30	AUD RBA trimmed mean CPI (QoQ)		0.4%	0.5%
00:30	AUD Consumer Price Index (YoY)		1.9%	2.1%
00:30	AUD Consumer Price Index (QoQ)		0.4%	0.4%
00:30	AUD RBA trimmed mean CPI (YoY)		1.9%	1.9%
01:00	CNY NBS Manufacturing PMI		50.7	50.8
01:00	CNY Non-manufacturing PMI			54.9
n/a	JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
n/a	JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision			-0.1%
n/a	JPY BoJ outlook report
n/a	JPY BoJ Press Conference
05:00	PEN Inflation
05:00	JPY Annualized Housing Starts			0.957M
05:00	JPY Housing Starts (YoY)		-0.7%	1.6%
05:00	JPY Construction Orders (YoY)			0.5%
05:00	JPY Consumer Confidence Index			43.4
07:00	EUR Retail Sales (MoM)		0.5%	-0.1%
07:00	EUR Retail Sales (YoY)		1.0%	1.6%
07:00	TRY Trade Balance			-2.42B
07:00	TRY Foreign Arrivals			15.6%
07:00	TRY Economic confidence index			71
07:00	DKK Unemployment Rate			3.2%
07:45	EUR Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (YoY)			2.5%
07:45	EUR Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (MoM)			-0.2%
08:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product - Estimated (QoQ)		0.6%	0.6%
08:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product - Estimated (YoY)		2.8%	2.7%
08:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)		0.6%	0.6%
08:00	HUF Producer Price Index (YoY)			8.1%
09:00	EUR Unemployment		9.9%	9.7%
09:00	PLN Consumer Price Index (MoM)		0.2%	0.2%
09:00	PLN Consumer Price Index (YoY)		1.9%	1.8%
09:00	EUR Current Account Balance			€0.11B
09:00	CHF ZEW Survey - Expectations			-30.8
10:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)			1.4%
10:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (MoM)			-0.5%
10:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (MoM)		0.3%	1.7%
10:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY)		1.8%	1.5%
10:00	EUR Retail Sales (YoY)			2.5%
10:00	INR Federal Fiscal Deficit, INR			5,912.91B
10:00	EUR Unemployment Rate		8.1%	8.1%
10:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)		2.2%	2.1%
10:00	EUR Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY)		1.0%	0.9%
11:00	USD MBA Mortgage Applications			4.9%
11:30	INR Infrastructure Output (YoY)			4.2%
12:00	CLP Industrial Production (YoY)			4%
12:00	ZAR Trade Balance (in Rands)		5.00B	8.79B
12:15	USD ADP Employment Change		189K	230K
12:30	USD Employment cost index		0.7%	0.6%
12:30	CAD Industrial Product Price (MoM)			-0.5%
12:30	CAD Raw Material Price Index		-1.5%	-4.6%
12:30	CAD Gross Domestic Product (MoM)			0.2%
13:00	CLP Unemployment rate			7.3%
13:45	USD Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index		60.5	60.4
14:30	USD EIA Crude Oil Stocks change			6.35M
15:00	COP National Jobless Rate			9.2%
17:00	BRL Interest Rate Decision		6.5%	6.5%
19:00	ARS Industrial Output n.s.a (YoY)			-5.6%
21:30	AUD AiG Performance of Mfg Index			59
23:00	KRW Consumer Price Index Growth (YoY)			1.9%
23:00	KRW Consumer Price Index Growth			0.7%
23:50	JPY Foreign investment in Japan stocks			¥76.5B
23:50	JPY Foreign bond investment			¥8.1B
Thursday, Nov 01
24h	EUR All Saints Day
24h	CLP All Saints Day
24h	PLN All Saints Day
24h	EUR All Saints' Day
00:00	KRW Trade Balance			$9.57B
24h	EUR All Saints Day
24h	EUR All Saints' Day
24h	EUR All Saints Day
24h	HUF All Saints Day
24h	EUR All Saints Day
00:30	KRW Nikkei Markit Manufacturing PMI			51.3
00:30	AUD Import Price Index (QoQ)			3.2%
00:30	AUD Export Price Index (QoQ)			1.9%
00:30	AUD Imports			0%
00:30	AUD Exports			1%
00:30	AUD Trade Balance		1,700M	1,604M
01:45	CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI		49.9	50.0
n/a	CNY PBoC Interest Rate Decision			4.35%
04:00	IDR Core Inflation (YoY)			2.82%
04:00	IDR Inflation (YoY)			2.88%
04:00	IDR Inflation (MoM)			-0.18%
05:00	EUR Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing			52.2
05:30	AUD RBA Commodity Index SDR (YoY)			4.8%
06:00	RUB HSBC Manufacturing PMI			50
06:45	CHF SECO Consumer Climate (3m)			-7
07:00	GBP Nationwide Housing Prices s.a (MoM)		0.2%	0.3%
07:00	GBP Nationwide Housing Prices n.s.a (YoY)		1.9%	2.0%
n/a	EUR Unemployment Rate			6.9%
n/a	EUR Unemployment			279.9K
07:30	SEK Purchasing Managers Index Manufacturing (MoM)			55.2
08:15	CHF Consumer Price Index (YoY)		1.1%	1.0%
08:15	CHF Consumer Price Index (MoM)			0.1%
08:30	HKD Retail Sales			9.5%
08:30	CZK Markit PMI			53.4
08:30	CHF SVME - Purchasing Managers' Index		58.5	59.7
09:00	EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI			53.6
09:30	GBP Markit Manufacturing PMI		53.0	53.8
11:00	BRL Industrial Output (MoM)		0.2%	-0.3%
11:00	BRL Industrial Output (YoY)		3.2%	2.0%
11:30	USD Challenger Job Cuts			55.285K
12:00	BRL HSBC PMI Manufacturing			50.9
12:00	ZAR Total New Vehicle Sales			49.67
12:00	GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision		0.75%	0.75%
12:00	GBP BoE Asset Purchase Facility		£435B	£435B
12:00	GBP Monetary Policy Summary
12:00	GBP Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report
12:00	GBP BOE MPC Vote Unchanged		9	9
12:00	GBP BOE MPC Vote Cut		0	0
12:00	GBP BOE MPC Vote Hike		0	0
12:00	GBP Bank of England Minutes
12:00	CZK CNB Interest Rate Decision		1.5%	1.5%
12:30	USD Continuing Jobless Claims			1.636M
12:30	USD Initial Jobless Claims		215K	215K
12:30	USD Unit Labor Costs		1.2%	-1.0%
12:30	USD Nonfarm Productivity		2.0%	2.9%
12:30	GBP BOE's Governor Carney speech
13:00	CZK Budget Balance			16.77B
13:30	CAD Markit Manufacturing PMI			54.8
13:45	USD Markit Manufacturing PMI			55.9
14:00	USD ISM Manufacturing PMI		59.0	59.8
14:00	USD ISM Prices Paid		67.0	66.9
14:00	USD Construction Spending (MoM)		0.1%	0.1%
14:30	USD EIA Natural Gas Storage change			58B
18:00	BRL Trade Balance			4.971B
19:30	USD Total Vehicle Sales		17.10M	17.44M
20:00	ARS Tax Revenue (MoM)			295.82B
23:50	JPY Monetary Base (YoY)			5.9%
Friday, Nov 02
24h	BRL All Souls Day
00:30	AUD Retail Sales s.a. (MoM)		0.3%	0.3%
00:30	AUD Producer Price Index (QoQ)			0.3%
00:30	AUD Producer Price Index (YoY)			1.5%
06:45	EUR Budget			€-97.3B
07:00	EUR Import Price Index (MoM)		0.6%	0.0%
07:00	EUR Import Price Index (YoY)		4.6%	4.8%
08:00	PLN Purchasing Manager Index			50.5
08:15	EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI		50.8	51.4
08:15	CHF Real Retail Sales (YoY)			0.3%
08:45	EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI		49.5	50.0
08:50	EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI		51.2	51.2
08:55	EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI		52.3	52.3
09:00	EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI		52.1	52.1
09:00	NOK Registered Unemployment s.a		80.50K	81.04K
09:00	NOK Registered Unemployment n.s.a		2.2%	2.3%
09:30	GBP PMI Construction		51.9	52.1
11:30	INR FX Reserves, USD			$393.52B
12:30	USD Average Weekly Hours		34.5	34.5
12:30	USD Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)		3.1%	2.8%
12:30	USD Nonfarm Payrolls		190K	134K
12:30	USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)		0.3%	0.3%
12:30	USD Labor Force Participation Rate			62.7%
12:30	USD Unemployment Rate		3.7%	3.7%
12:30	USD Trade Balance		$-53.6B	$-53.2B
12:30	CAD Unemployment Rate		5.9%	5.9%
12:30	CAD Participation rate			65.4%
12:30	CAD Net Change in Employment		25.0K	63.3K
13:00	SGD Purchasing Managers Index			52.4
13:30	CAD Exports			$50.55B
13:30	CAD International Merchandise Trade			$0.53B
13:30	CAD Imports			$50.02B
13:45	USD ISM-NY Business Conditions Index			72.5
14:00	USD Factory Orders (MoM)		0.4%	2.3%
15:00	DKK Currency Reserves			467.9B
17:00	USD Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count			875
20:00	PEN Trade balance
22:45	NZD Building Permits s.a. (MoM)
Saturday, Nov 03
24h	EUR All Saints Day
24h	JPY Culture Day
24h	SEK All Saints Day

Author

Dhwani Mehta

FXStreet

Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.

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