Asia week ahead: Eyes on China - ING


Analysts at ING Bank explained that there will be a lot of focus on China data this week. 

Key Quotes:

"September Industrial profits numbers released over the weekend were poor - showing a rise of only 4.1%YoY, and down from 9.2% in August. This week, we have official PMIs together with the Caixin PMI. The consensus is guessing no further move taking the index through the boom/bust 50 level it reached last month. On the back of the profits figures, this seems optimistic, and our Greater China Economist, Iris Pang, expects the level to be broken, with the Caixin PMI falling to 49.5. 

Data out of the US this week in advance of Friday's jobs report will have to do the talking as the US Federal Reserve is in the blackout period ahead of the 9 November rate meeting. Markets are beginning to doubt the 2019 hiking story again given the equity backdrop. But I don't think the Fed is ready to change course yet, 

"The Pakatan Harapan coalition government is due to unveil the 2019 Federal Budget this week (2 November). Significant policy changes such as the elimination of Goods and Services Tax have derailed a decade-long fiscal consolidation. We expect this to push the fiscal deficit above 3% of GDP in 2018 and keep it there in the coming years. Yet, with the expectation of continued monetary policy accommodation for a prolonged period, the macro policy mix still remains healthy."

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