Forex today: a better start to stocks, dollar off a touch, yields still elevated

In forex today, attention was focused on the equity markets again. 

It was a better start to the week this time around and the European and US equity markets recovered some lost ground with the greenback broadly lower while risk transferred over to the fiscal deficits, (The DXY  stalled against a neckline resistance of 90.65-70).

Yields were higher after the stocks bounced with traders looking ahead for this Thursday's (Asia Friday) US CPI data. The US 10yr treasury yields initially rose from 2.86% to 2.89% for a fresh four-year high. Then, the 2yr yields drifted slightly lower, to 2.08%. (The Fed fund futures yields rose slightly. they are now pricing the probability of another rate hike in March above 90% (a Bloomberg estimate)).

EUR/USD was higher on the NY session following the highs made of 1.2298 in Asia and 1.2296 in Europe. In NY, the pair was making a higher high for a first time in seven sessions with a market in strong hands despite large longs, (supported by a bid in the EUR/JPY cross that neared Asia's high with an unwind in the risk-off yen).

GBP/USD was finishing up the NY session at around 1.3825within the US session's range of between 1.3857-1.3798. We heard from both BoE's Vlieghe & McCafferty today who are signalling for higher rates eye higher rates, and coming from Vileghe, usually, a dove, underpins the notion that indeed there will be a rate hike this year and subsequent hikes within the next couple of years.  However, the pound is unable to capitalise on this with the threat of Brexit uncertainty. The market now awaits the UK's CPI data on Tuesday.  

The cross picked up by the bulls again in London and posted a daily high at 0.88891 and low at 0.8843. Sterling caught a short-term bid last week on the hawkish BoE on the back of the Central Bank's rate path forecasted that is seen to weigh on a steady EZ outlook, although Brexit concerns are keeping a lid on such sentiment. 

USD/JPY was unwinding the yen through the crosses, while otherwise, the major was pretty quiet in a tight range of between 108.44-94 while markets have their eyes on US CPI Wed ahead of Japan returning from their holiday's in Asia today. 

As for the higher betas, volatility remains a threat and the CRB Index remains vulnerable to the downside, resting on a support zone currently. Gold turned a corner and moved higher as the dollar came off while Crude prices were more positive today on the back of OPEC urging cooperation beyond the end of a current production deal.  The Antipodeans were making a full recovery of the Asian supply and some. AUD/USD opened around 0.7830 and closed at 0.7860 on dollar weakness. The Kiwi was offered again after a poor start in European trade with some volatility before falling back to 0.7240 as the low just before a pick up to the 100 hourly SMA and then onto make a high of 0.7267.

Key notes from US session 

• Trump budget assumes us CPI to rise 2.1% in 2018, 2% in 2019
• BoE’s Mccafferty: likely rates will go up slightly earlier than thought