FOMC Minutes: Door open to the tapering talk – UOB

Senior Economist at UOB Group Alvin Liew comments on the recent publication of the FOMC Minutes.

Key Quotes

“While the latest FOMC minutes noted the faster progress of the economic recovery, FED policymakers continued to grapple with the uncertainty of US economic and inflation outlook with no concrete decision yet for the Fed policy timeline.”

“Inflation has increased notably in recent months and some FOMC members sounded off more prominently their concerns about inflation which could turn out to be higher and more persistent than expected.”

“With the “talk about the talk” now set in motion for taper discussion, the process will lead to the fleshing out of the tapering of its asset purchase program. The first indicative hint could be released during the Jackson Hole Symposium (26 Aug) and further articulated into a pledge of the taper timeline in the 21/22 September 2021 FOMC. We now expect the first taper to be carried out in December 2021 and the tapering process will last for nearly 1.5 years until May 2023. Thereafter, we project two 25bps rate hikes for 2023, first to 0.25%-0.50% in June and then to 0.50%-0.75% in December…”