Fed’s Powell: We are not confident we are at a sufficiently restrictive stance

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said on Thursday that they are no confident that they have achieved a “stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent over time”.  He is participating in a panel discussion on monetary policy challenges in a global economy organized by the International Monetary Fund.

Key takeaways: 

My colleagues and I are gratified by this progress but expect that the process of getting inflation sustainably down to 2 percent has a long way to go. 

The labor market remains tight, although improvements in labor supply and a gradual easing in demand continue to move it into better balance. Gross domestic product growth in the third quarter was quite strong, but, like most forecasters, we expect growth to moderate in coming quarters. Of course, that remains to be seen, and we are attentive to the risk that stronger growth could undermine further progress in restoring balance to the labor market and in bringing inflation down, which could warrant a response from monetary policy.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is committed to achieving a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent over time; we are not confident that we have achieved such a stance. 

We know that ongoing progress toward our 2 percent goal is not assured: Inflation has given us a few head fakes. If it becomes appropriate to tighten policy further, we will not hesitate to do so.

We are making decisions meeting by meeting, based on the totality of the incoming data and their implications for the outlook for economic activity and inflation, as well as the balance of risks, determining the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate to return inflation to 2 percent over time. We will keep at it until the job is done.

Market reaction

The US Dollar rose across the board after Powell’s initial comments. The DXY climbed toward daily highs near 105.80 and EUR/USD dropped back toward 1.0660.