Fed’s Miran: The economy is more vulnerable to shocks because policy is restrictive
Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran spoke at a televised interview on CNBC on Wednesday. He said that there is now more downside risk than there was a week ago, and that with the shift in the balance of risk, it is more urgent to move towards a more neutral policy.
Key takeaways
There is now more downside risk than a week ago.
With the change in the balance of risk more urgent to get to a more neutral policy.
The economy is more vulnerable to shocks because policy is restrictive.
The difference in my view and the rest of the FOMC is on the speed of the trip to neutral.
There is difficulty in knowing the neutral rate exactly.
Uncertainty over the level of the neutral rate does not preclude debate over how it has changed.
Changes to immigration have led to a population shock.
The labor market has clearly weakened.
Housing has been moribund, evidence that policy is restrictive.
Two more cuts this year sounds realistic.
Data are backward looking, policy now should be based on where the Fed thinks prices will be a year from now.
See substantial disinflation coming from housing in coming months.
Having few immigrant workers does not put upward pressure on wages.
Hopeful to have the needed data in hand for the October meeting, if not will rely on outlook.
Not seeing anything in alternative data yet that cast doubt on core forecast.
Expect to get to 2% inflation on headline PCE in about a year and a half.Expect unemployment to edge slightly down over that time, if policy moves down.
Fed independence is of critical importance, want policy made based on mandates not managed to an electoral calendar.
The Fed can and will do a better job of maintaining independence.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.14% | -0.32% | -0.24% | 0.01% | -0.42% | 0.04% | -0.28% | |
| EUR | 0.14% | -0.12% | -0.12% | 0.13% | -0.24% | 0.13% | -0.13% | |
| GBP | 0.32% | 0.12% | 0.02% | 0.29% | -0.11% | 0.25% | 0.04% | |
| JPY | 0.24% | 0.12% | -0.02% | 0.23% | -0.17% | 0.13% | 0.06% | |
| CAD | -0.01% | -0.13% | -0.29% | -0.23% | -0.43% | -0.04% | -0.26% | |
| AUD | 0.42% | 0.24% | 0.11% | 0.17% | 0.43% | 0.37% | 0.16% | |
| NZD | -0.04% | -0.13% | -0.25% | -0.13% | 0.04% | -0.37% | -0.21% | |
| CHF | 0.28% | 0.13% | -0.04% | -0.06% | 0.26% | -0.16% | 0.21% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Author
Agustin Wazne
FXStreet
Agustin Wazne joined FXStreet as a Junior News Editor, focusing on Commodities and covering Majors.
