Fed’s Daly is prepared to back another 0.75 percentage point rate hike, but US dollar bleeds out


The Wall Street Journal reported that San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly A said Friday she was prepared to support another rate increase of 0.75 percentage point at the central bank’s next meeting, on July 26-27, to counter inflation, which is at a 40-year high.

Several other Fed officials endorsed such a move over the past week.

Daly said that the central bank needs to raise interest rates to levels designed to slow economic growth and combat inflation and that those levels will depend on factors outside of the Fed’s control.

US inflation has accelerated to an 8.6% annual rate in May, its fastest pace in 41 years and is a factor raising the risk of US recession.

Meanwhile, the US dollar has been pressured of late as markets reaccess the Fed's path and the greenback posted its first weekly decline this month.

DXY update

A significant factor this week has been the fall in oil and commodity prices, which has eased inflation fears leading to a return to risk appetite. This has eroded the safe-haven bid that has been boosting the dollar against major currencies:

We have seen the price action in DXY play out as follows:

A break of structure, BoS, would be expected to lead to a sell-off as illustrated above. 

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