Fed to deliver two 25-basis-point hikes in Q1, followed by long pause – Reuters poll

“US Federal Reserve (Fed) will end its tightening cycle after a 25-basis-point hike at each of its next two policy meetings and then likely hold interest rates steady for at least the rest of the year,” according to most economists surveyed in the latest Reuters poll.

Key findings

More than 80% of forecasters in the latest Reuters poll, 68 of 83, predicted the Fed would downshift to a 25-basis-point hike at its Jan. 31-Feb 1 meeting.

The remaining 15 see a 50-basis-point hike coming in two weeks, but only one of those was from a US primary dealer bank that deals directly with the Fed.

The interest rate view in the survey was slightly behind the Fed's recent projections, but the poll medians for growth, inflation and unemployment were largely in line.

In response to an additional question, more than 60% of respondents, 55 of 89, said the Fed was more likely to hold rates steady for at least the rest of the year than cut. That view lined up with the survey's median projection for the first cut to come in early 2024.

However, a significant minority, 34, said rate cuts this year were more likely than not, with 16 citing a plunge in inflation as the biggest reason. Twelve said a deeper economic downturn and four said a sharp rise in unemployment.

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